Saturday, December 5, 2020

Dtavadjan?

 


This word, dtavadjan, is a strong word in Armenian and it is being bandied about quite a bit in the past month referring to the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan. 

It means “traitor.”

Losing the recent, September 27 – November 10, war with Azerbaijan was a devasting blow to the gut, heart, and soul of every Armenian around the world.  The abruptness of the end of the war and the loss of life, land, and national pride despite the heroic effort the Artsakh forces a larger and better armed Azeri military backed by Turkey.

On November 10, the Azeri forces were making headway and appeared to be about to take Sushi.  Suddenly, a peace was announced, and the terms were most definitely not favorable to the Armenians.  I was taken aback that many were calling Pashinyan a dtavajan and calling for elections to oust him.  The terms of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire Agreement are provided below.

My first thoughts were that the odds were stacked against us.  Artsakh with some support from Armenia and perhaps some latent help from Russia, we were fighting well-funded Azeri forces augmented with Turkish air support and Turkish funded mercenaries (seasoned Isis fighters?) brought in from Syria.  The Azeris had drones supplied from Turkey and Israel for which the Armenian forces had no answer.  We had bravery and tactics.  Report showed we were inflicting an order of magnitude more casualties.  But, we had no answer for the drone and the numerically superior Azeri and mercenary forces.  As my friend Ara said, “we were trying to shoot down drones with peashooters.” 

The ceasefire came so quickly that it appeared, at least to me, to have been pre-brokered.  It seemed to me that the regional powers basically put a gun to Armenia’s head and made them take this deal.  I did not think that Armenia had much influence in these negotiations.  The outcome of war was clearly in favor of the Azeris.

I actually thought, “Who would have wanted to be in Nigol Pashinyan’s or Artyak Harutunyans (President of Artsakh) shoes and have to sign such an agreement.”

Immediately upon the announcement of the terms, people took to the streets in Yerevan to protest the agreement and Pashinyan.  Many began to call him a traitor and called for elections.  It was clear other political parties were looking to take control of the country in such an election.

I asked others, mostly my friends, about Pashinyan being a traitor.  A few guys from Armenia did not think he was a traitor and thought as I do.  American born Armenians aligned with a particular political party with aspirations to take a larger role in the country unequivocally called him a traitor.  Others, that thought he was a traitor, claimed he did not commit Armenia’s full arsenal of weapons which he might have used in Artsakh or even to take out Azerbaijan’s oil industry.  The accused him of not allowing volunteers from the diaspora to join the Artsakh defenders.   I believe he had to walk a thin line to prevent Turkey taking a more direct role in the War given Russia’s not willing to assist the Armenians with forces.  I believe Putin and Erdogan were calling the shots behind the scenes, Putin probably was waiting for the moment to step in and impose the agreement we ended up with.  The words of Khirimian Hyrik who was the Catholicos of the Armenian Church from 1893 – 1907 still ring true.  I used this same quote in my blog post, of October 2nd, Chidem Inch: War in Artsakh, in reaction to the onset of this horrible war

It was upon returning from the Congress of Berlin, where he was sent by the Armenian delegation to negotiate on its behalf, that he delivered his most famous speech, that of the “iron ladle.” He argued that Armenians had placed their hopes for salvation in others, rather than themselves. Hayrig used the allegory of a pot of harissa, a traditional Armenian dish, from which other countries were extracting what they wanted with iron ladles while he had been sent to secure concessions for the Armenians with nothing but a paper ladle. He thus implored Armenians to shed their timidity and become masters of their own fate. 

~ auroraprize.com

I do not think that Nigol Pashinyan is a traitor.  I do think he was in over his skis.  I do think he taken to school by Erdogan and Putin.  He had very little prior leadership or diplomatic experience.  He was a journalist.  He is a great orator and got involved in politics at the representative level.  He found himself leading the February 2018 Velvet Revolution and then thrust into the top job in Armenia’s government.  The people supported him.  He was anti-oligarch, anti-establishment, and strived to not be under the influence of Putin.  He was a breath of fresh air.

But on November 10th, Putin showed Pashinyan and the Armenians who had the iron ladle.  We were, once again, looking for them to be our savior during the war and once again their own interests prevailed over doing what we thought was the right thing to do.  My view was that Putin basically pulled Armenia back into his sphere of influence with this agreement.  Putin even chastised the Armenians for never having recognized the Republic of Artsakh!

Paper ladle indeed.

 

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2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement

 


 

We, the President of Azerbaijan, I. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N.V. Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, state the following:

1.     A complete ceasefire and end to all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is hereby declared from 00:00 Moscow time on 10 November 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, shall stay at the positions they occupy.

2.     The Agdam District shall be returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan by 20 November 2020.

3.     Along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a 1,960-strong peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation with small arms, 90 armoured personnel carriers, and 380 vehicles and other pieces of special equipment shall be deployed.

4.     The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh. The duration of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years to be automatically extended for another 5 years unless one of the Parties should serve a 6 months′ notice to contrary.

5.     For the purpose of improving the effectiveness of enforcing the agreement by the Parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping centre in charge of enforcing the ceasefire shall be deployed.

6.     The Republic of Armenia shall return the Kalbajar District to Azerbaijan by 15 of November 2020, (this was later extended to 25 November), and the Lachin District by 1 December. The Lachin corridor (5 km (3.1 mi) wide), which will provide access from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and bypass the town of Shusha, shall remain under the control of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation. Subject to agreement by the Parties, a construction plan will be determined in the next three years for a new route of movement along the Lachin corridor, providing a link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to guard this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the safety of traffic of citizens, vehicles, and goods along the Lachin corridor in both directions.

7.     Internally displaced persons and refugees shall return to the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees.

8.     The exchange of prisoners of war, hostages and other detainees as well as the remains of the fatalities shall be carried out.

9.     All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport links between western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with a view to organising the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The Border Service of the FSB of Russia shall exercise control over the transport communication. Subject to agreement by the Parties, the construction of new infrastructure linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with regions of Azerbaijan shall be carried out.

2 comments:

  1. YOU CANT WIN ON DEFENSE WHICH IS ALL WE HAD, ATTACKING THEIR INTASTRUCURE MAY HAVE WORKED BUT BROADENED THE CONFLICT. WE LOST--HE SAVED A WORST FATE AND LIVES, MUTUALLY ASSURED DISTRUCTION IS THE ONLY PLAUSABLABILITY WHEN YOUR OVERMATCHED, TOUGH PILL---NOT NOW!!! RELOAD!

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  2. Something I saw posted to sums up the frustration with the PM

    Thank you Nikol.

    Thank you for spending most of your life publishing lies stowing cynicism amongst our people. Thank you for coming into power with a disastrous foreign policy. Thank you for not appointing professionals but rather your cadre of unqualified friends to incredibly important ministerial positions. Thank you for splitting the nation into “sev” and “spitak” while personally attacking everyone with a legitimate critique of your governance. Thank you for instituting a flat tax, where the wealthiest in the country, who were previously taxed at 36% now pay only 20% — the same as lowest-earning class. Thank you for usurping our entire court system, so that you can hold the judicial, legislative, and executive branches of the government all in your hands. Thank you for buying $140 million dollars worth of combat planes that weren’t used a single time during the war, so that you can take selfies in a fighter jet. Thank you for signing away 70% Artsakh without warning — while the night before, you were telling us that we were winning. Thank you for never including a timetable for the return of Armenian prisoners of war, but having a timetable for Armenian concession of lands. Thank you for keeping us in the dark about what’s happening, what we’ve given up, and what the state of our national security is today.

    Thank you for everything. You’ve done so much. I think it’s time you retire and go home. You deserve it.

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