I started this writing project, This Side of Fifty, in February of
2002.It began as a monthly e-letter
that I sent to a list of family and friends.In 2009, I moved it all over to this blog and began posting more often
than just once a month.This, is the
second post of the Volume XXIII.I have
never published a book, but I have enough posts over the years for a book or
three.As noted in previous Anniversary e-letters
and blog posts, this has been a most worthwhile and rewarding project.I am also both amazed and very proud that I
have stuck with it for so long.
There were only 40 posts in Volume XXII.That is the least number of posts since
2017.What was the cause of that drop in
productivity?I wrote about it a twice
last year in One
A Day and A
Lethargic July.The lower
productivity was due to a lethargy which I can attribute to my two knee
replacements, the left one in January and then the right one in June.The surgeries, which could be viewed as ‘routine,’
took some of the veritable wind out of my blogging sails.I feel good and feel somewhat back to normal.But at my age, any loss in concentration is a
wee bit worrisome.
While my blogging numbers sagged, I wrote 55 poems during the same
time period.That was the most poems I have
ever written in a year.Oddly, it took me
about the same amount of time to write a poem as it takes to write a blog post.I am not sure I have a great explanation for
this beyond it being the impact of two anesthesias somehow slowed down the
prose part of the brain whilst unshackling the poetic lobe.I do lament for not having more posts here,
but I am pretty happy with my poetry blog:Mark Gavoor’s Poetry.
While I have no issue with putting my thoughts out there for all to
read on this blog.I am much shier about
doing the same with my poetry.Before,
creating This Side of Fifty, I worried a bit about ‘putting myself out there.’It was an unnecessary worry and I got over
quickly.When it comes to poetry, my
lack of confidence has lasted decades longer.Poetry is less popular and basically the domain of English professors
around which I feel like a poetic poser.Correction, I used to feel that way.No more.
Part of writing is to find one’s voice and then embrace and refine
it.I believe, I have a poetic voice and
have refined it over the years.I
comfortable with it.Heck, I am now happy,
proud of it, and, indeed, embracing it.I
care about how others react to it.But
that is their right.If I can learn from
their criticism and refine it that is good.Otherwise, in my current state of mind, it doesn’t matter to me.
There is a saying that ‘when one door closes, another opens.’In this case it seems to be more like, ‘when one
door closes a wee bit, another is blown wide open.’In this case, it is a very good thing.
you texted a very simple thought "it's life you know" i started to type and backspace and type and delete again and once more
then... i just stopped just sat there with nothing nothing to say nothing clever no insight no whimsy certainly nothing deep or profound nothing at all to convey
i just sat there the sound of one mind doing nothing idling, stalled on the bay of eerie tranquility
"it's life you know" i guess i do maybe the best poem i ever read
During this year’s Armenian Heritage Cruise (AHC), a restored silent film premiered on Jan. 11, accompanied by a newly composed soundtrack.
The Melody of Armenia
tells the story of Mrs. Ghazarian, a genocide survivor living in France
in the 1920s. She had six children, five of whom perished during the
genocide. Her surviving son lives with her, and together, they attempt
to rebuild their lives in exile. Like many survivors, Mrs. Ghazarian is
haunted by the horrors she lived through and is deeply despondent over
the loss of her family and the fate of the Armenian people. To her, the
future appears bleak.
Her son tried to comfort her by
pointing to the resilience of Armenians in the diaspora, offering
examples of what they have built for themselves in France. He speaks of
young Armenians thriving, carrying a long and proud cultural heritage,
and urges his mother to take hope in the eternal Armenian spirit.
Avetis Aharonian (left) and Alexander Khatisian (right)
While this lovely and inspiring
narrative frames the film, it is not the real gist of it. Rather, the
story of the mother and son serves as a vehicle to show rare historical
film footage of real events. As the film opens, scenes of the burning of
Smyrna accompany the mother’s painful memories. When the son speaks of
Armenian renewal in France, the audience sees images of Armenian
schools, scouting organizations and community life.
There is precious film footage of Armenian luminaries such as Alexander Khatisian, who held several posts in the First Armenian Republic, including prime minister, and Avetis Aharonian,
the famed writer and chairman of the Parliament of the First Republic
of Armenia. While the footage from Smyrna is certainly harrowing, the
scenes depicting Armenian life in France during the 1920s are true
treasure troves. It would be wonderful if similar films existed
documenting Armenian life in Beirut, New York, Fresno, Boston and
Detroit of that era.
This historical footage is the bulk of The Melody of Armenia and
is what makes the film so special, valuable, endearing and a ‘must see’
for all of us. Visually, the film remains remarkably strong, despite
being so old. The newly composed soundtrack is spectacular and really
helps bring the silent images to life for modern audiences.
Not only did I have a chance to
preview the film before its premiere, I also had the wonderful
opportunity to talk with the two people responsible for restoring and
reviving it. First and foremost is George Aghjayan, who found the movie
in the Hairenik
archives and led the restoration effort. George then recruited Mher
Mnatsakanyan, who created the new soundtrack in collaboration with the
gifted composer Martin Ulikhanyan.
HMEM Scouts
Aghjayan graduated with honors from
Worcester Polytechnic Institute in 1988 with a bachelor’s degree in
actuarial mathematics and became a fellow of the Society of Actuaries in
1996. After a career in insurance and structured finance, he retired in
2014 to concentrate on Armenian research and cultural projects. His
primary area of focus is the demographics and geography of Western Armenia,
with a keen interest in the hidden Armenians living there today. He has
also written and lectured extensively on Armenian genealogy and
genocide denial and served on the Central Committee of the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) — Eastern United States, as well as the
national board of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).
Mnatsakanyan is a renowned Armenian
musician and performer. He began his musical training at the Alexander
Spendiaryan Music School and later earned a master’s degree in music
performance from the Komitas Yerevan State Conservatory. Widely
recognized as a master of the duduk, Armenia’s national instrument, he
is also a skilled multi-instrumentalist who performs on the zurna and
clarinet, blending traditional Armenian sounds with a refined modern
sensibility. Based in Los Angeles, he travels frequently to perform at
cultural festivals and community events.
Below is a summary of my conversations with George Aghjayan and Mher Mnatsakanyan.
Mark Gavoor (M.G.): Where and how did you come across this film?
George Aghjayan (G.A.): In
early 2017, the ARF Bureau approached me to see if I was willing to take
on the role of director of the ARF Archives. I agreed, as I had a
strong interest in the archives and in making them more accessible to
researchers. At the time, there was not much of a handoff of knowledge,
though I had the benefit of Unger Tatul Sonentz Papazian and his
infinite wealth of information about the archives’ history.
The first year or so, I focused on
creating space for researchers to work, as that had not existed. In the
summer of 2018, while moving boxes in the vault, I attempted to move a
metal container that boxes had been stacked on with my foot. I thought
it was empty, but it had significant weight to it. So, I moved the boxes
to find a Western Union shipping container. There was a label on it,
indicating it was being shipped from N. Porigian, 108 1/2 Main St.
Binghamton NY to ARF Committee c/o B. Kavafian, 504 W. 178 St., New
York, NY. A bit of genealogy research indicated that Nshan Porigian
lived at that address in Binghamton from 1930 to 1932, so that supplied a
timeline.
M.G.: What is it about? What is the name of the film?
G.A.: Inside the container, I found six reels of the film ԵրգնՀայաստանի / Les Melodies de l’Arménie, or The Melody of Armenia.
At the time, I had no ability to view
the film. I had brought it to a company I had previously used for
digitization purposes, but I received a call late on a Friday night
telling me I had to pick it up immediately. The owner had noticed the
film and realized their office was at risk. Until then, I had not
realized the risks involved.
Avetis Aharonian
M.G.: What is the backstory of the film? How did you learn about it?
G.A.: I researched the film as best I could and found articles in a number of newspapers, including the Hairenik Daily. The film stated it was an Historical Documentary Film by Cinema Armenia and directed by N. Gorkanian/Corganian.
One of the actors, Shahan Saryan, was
a well-known actor in the Middle East in the 1920s. The other actor was
simply named Knarig, no surname. A 2002 article in Haratch mentions the film in the context of Atam Egoyan’s Ararat film and Turkish censorship, suggesting that Knarig was Charles Aznavor’s mother — a claim I found likely not to be true.
In any event, the first mention I find of the film is in an advertisement in the Dec. 14, 1930 issue of Haratch.
The film was being shown on Dec. 26, possibly its premiere. There were
additional ads in January 1931 for showings in Paris and Marseilles. The
first article describing the content of the film I was able to find was
the Feb. 21, 1931 issue of the Hairenik Daily, which announced the film would be shown around the U.S. The Feb. 6, 1932 issue of the Hairenik Daily announces
the showing of the film in Franklin Union Hall, 41 Berkeley Street,
Boston on Feb. 14. It could be this copy of the film that remained at
the Hairenik Building after the showing.
M.G.: Who made it — director, producer, actors — and where and why was it made? Was it commissioned?
G.A.: There is a very informative article in the Arev
newspaper of Cairo dated Aug. 25, 1931, written by the director, N,
Gorkanian. He states that the film had been submitted to the censors of
France and successfully received a license number (40049).
They demanded the film be reviewed a second time and, after that review, demanded the following changes: 1. Change the name of the film 2. Remove the last scene that includes the Armenian flag, Etchmiadzin and Mount Ararat.
M.G.: Clearly, you decided to do something with this film. What was your initial vision, and how has that evolved?
G.A.: From the beginning, my
objective was to digitize the film for preservation. I also hoped to
show the film around the world. Not only was the film historically
important and unique, but screenings could be used to bring awareness to
the rich history of the ARF archives and funds raised to create an
endowment for the archives. But to show the film required a score, which
did not exist.
Mother and Son
s
M.G.: What shape was the film in when you found it? Did it need restoration?
G.A.: I forget the exact
timeline, but I was in Washington — either lobbying or lecturing ANCA
interns — and stopped by the Library of Congress (LOC) to visit with the
Armenian-area specialist at the time, Levon Avdoyan. I brought up the
film, and he put me in touch with people at the LOC who handle similar
films. They, in turn, put me in touch with a company in Maryland that
digitizes nitrate film for the LOC. My wife and I personally drove the
film down, to remove any risk of shipping the sole copy of the film
known to exist. In July 2019, I received the digitized version. The
physical film is still with the company, until such time as the ARF
Archives gifts it to the LOC, as they are better suited to store the
film long-term.
M.G.: As a silent film, was there any documentation or score for the piano?
G.A.: There was no score that I
am aware of, though I feel like, at some point, I found reference to
songs that may have been played during showings of the film. Regardless,
as the film has actual footage of the burning of Smyrna, my initial
hope had been to have the film completed in time for the 100th
anniversary of that tragedy. However, for various reasons, my attempts
at getting a soundtrack fell through. And time kept passing, much to my
frustration.
M.G.: The film includes title
frames. What languages are used, and what languages do you plan to
include in your re-issuing of the film?
G.A.: The original film has
title frames in both Armenian and French. I am replacing the French text
with other languages so that the film can be shown in any country. The
Armenian text will remain as in the original. Currently, the text for
the English and Arabic versions has been done, and those versions of the
film will be created. Greek is another priority language, given the
significance for the community there. Last summer, I met with a museum
in Athens that is interested in sponsoring a showing of the film.
M.G. How did you, wisely, choose Mher to be the musical director/composer for the soundtrack?
G.A.: One year ago, while we
were both on the Armenian Heritage Cruise, I approached Mher about the
film and the concept. I still remember us on the top deck of the ship as
I played the film for him. Mher’s response and passion for the project
moved me, and I knew he was the right person to make this happen. As I
am not a musician or musical in any way, my concepts were crude. It was
Mher and the team he put together who took my initial thoughts, expanded
on them and turned them into something special. From the time last
year’s cruise ended, they worked tirelessly and the final score was
completed at the end of August. Since then, I have been working on
translations and final edits.
M.G.: When and where will the film premiere?
G.A.: It seemed natural that
the premiere of the film would be on the 2026 Armenian Heritage Cruise.
Once it has premiered there, we will work on showings in the U.S. and
around the world.
Avetis Aharonian at his desk
M.G.: Mher, what was your reaction when George called you?
Mher Mnatsakanyan (M.M.):
George and I first met during the last 44 days of the Artsakh war, while
protesting with the Armenian community in Worcester, Massachusetts.
During that time, he invited me to be part of this project. That idea
was reaffirmed on the Armenian Heritage Cruise in January 2025, when we
met again on the ship. My initial reaction was one of excitement and
responsibility; I wanted to make sure I could give my very best to this
wonderful project, and I truly believe it led to an incredible final
result.
M.G.: How did you approach composing the music? Have you ever done work like this before?
M.M.: It took about a month to
craft the complete musical agenda and select the ensemble of musicians
who would participate in this fabulous project. I reached out to my
childhood friend, film composer Martin Ulikhanyan in Armenia, and
together we began brainstorming ideas for the film’s musical language.
Our approach was to create improvisational fragments based on a variety
of renowned Armenian melodies that best capture the film’s narrative and
each of its episodes, as well as some original pieces. My prior
experience performing for film projects, especially during my years
working at Disney World, proved invaluable.
M.G.: Who else was involved?
M.M.: It took some careful
thought to decide who I wanted to invite into this project. After many
back-and-forth discussions with my friend Martin, we arrived at what I
believe is the best possible ensemble: myself as the soloist on duduk,
clarinet and shevi; the Ulikhanyan sisters, Vika and Lyana, on violin
and cello; and Lilit Zakaryan on piano.
M.G.: Was the music newly composed or based on existing works?
M.M.: Yes, the film features beautifully crafted fragments of beloved Armenian music, including pieces such as Krunk,
traditional war dances and sacred liturgical melodies. Each of these
was thoughtfully and specifically arranged to enhance the emotional arc
of the story and to illuminate the film’s key scenes and episodes.
M.G.: How challenging — and rewarding — has this process been?
M.M.: Bringing this project to
life required countless days and sleepless nights filled with
discussions, phone calls, recording sessions and editing work with sound
engineers, both here and in Armenia. Coordinating across time zones
often made the process extremely challenging, but step by step,
everything came together. In total, it took us nine months to complete,
and it stands as one of the greatest highlights of my musical career —
something I truly could not be more proud of.
M.G.: Will there be occasions to perform the soundtrack live?
M.M.: The premiere of the film
will take place on the Armenian Heritage Cruise on Jan. 11, 2026, the
very same AHC where George and I first agreed to bring this artistic
vision to life. On that day, we will also release a CD in Armenia, and
the music will be available on all major digital platforms, making it
accessible to listeners around the world. We also plan to perform the
film live as a fundraising event in support of the ARF Archives. I am
truly excited to share this phenomenal work with a wider audience.
Looking ahead to July 2026, through
my connections in Armenia, we are also exploring the opportunity to
present a live performance of the film in Armenia, within the framework
of the Golden Apricot International Film Festival.
= = =
I urge everyone to see this amazing
film when it comes to your city. It was a labor of love for both George
and Mher and I, for one, thank them deeply for their efforts. Until you
have the opportunity to see the film, the soundtrack album is available on a variety of platforms.
I am between semesters.During
this so called ‘free’ time, I have to prepare the classes I will be teaching in
the upcoming Spring Term which begins on January 12.Normally, I would just update what I have
been using for several years.I would
adjust the dates to reflect the start and due dates for the course and all
assignments.If necessary, I would tweak
the assignments that themselves to keep them fresh with current readings and
examples.
For many years, I have gotten into a groove of assigning two papers
and weekly discussions in my two semester long courses:Operations & Supply Chain Management and
Principles of Microeconomics.For
further homework and assessments, I use the following in these two courses.
Operations:The course is structured around the Council
for Supply Chain Management Professional’s (CSCMP) SCPro Certification
program.The final exam in this course
is the first of eight certification exams in the series:Supply Chain Management Principles.
In
this first overview course, we cover demand planning, procurement, inventory
management, warehousing, transportation, manufacturing/service operations,
customer service, and customer service.
To
supplement the management principles, there are 5 worksheets that involve the
formulae and calculations involved in forecasting, make vs buy decisions,
metrics, Little’s Law, and project management.
Microeconomics:This course is structured around the OpenStax
open source Principles of Microeconomics textbook.Hawkes Learning has built an excellent
programmed learning structure on this text.My course used their Chapter Learning (reading and learning for each
section of the chapters we cover) and Chapter Quizzes.
There
are unlimited tries for the Learning category
But
only two attempts for the Chapter Quizzes.
These formats were added during the COVID shutdown for Microeconomics
in the Spring of 2020 and around the same time frame for Operations.
I am contemplating make some drastic changes. There are a few reasons for this:
AI:Students are using it pretty freely (maybe
wantonly?) in writing paper and in their weekly discussion posts.The can easily use it to solve numerical
problems on graded worksheets and online quizzes and tests.While I don’t have direct evidence on this,
there is a convergence to a certain sameness in terms and flow used in papers
that was not there before AI.
Obsession
with Points/Grades:Students are focusing
primarily on their point totals and not on the primary objective (which is
learning something).In my years in
Quality Management and Process Design and Improvement, I have learned that obsession
on one single metric that is not 100% correlated to the real objective will
deliver a suboptimal results. AI enables students maximize the metric with
minimal learning.As a result, students
can ace a course and without actually learning very much.
I believe that we, a large number of professors, have gotten into the habits of
having way too many assignments with differing amounts of points.These assignments, their frequency, and their
due dates that tend to follow a weekly drumbeat, force a structure on the
students to keep them ‘on track’ and active in the course.I liken this to spoon feeding pablum to babies.Because of this, students have not really had
full opportunity to develop and master their own method for time and task
management.Also, very few do anything,
that isn’t assigned.If there are no
points, there is little likelihood the vast majority of students would read
anything for the sole sake of learning a bit more about a topic.
Attention
in Class:Students generally don’t take notes during
class.Some don’t even bring anything to
class to write on or write with.This
past term I gave a few non-graded quizzes on terms and concepts from the
previous few classes.The results were
not encouraging.
I remember my math classes from my undergraduate days some 50+ years
ago.There was a mid-term exam worth 40%
of the grade and a final exam worth 60%.Each day, the professor would lecture and assign a handful of homework
problems to be done for the next class.The professor never collected or graded the homework; he would simply
ask in the next class if anyone had any questions about the homework.If students asked questions, he would do the problems
they had questions about.If there were
no questions, he would proceed with the lecture for that day assuming the
students were good.Doing the problems
or not doing the homework was all on the students.It was not the professors’ job to police
such.As first semester freshmen, only
about half the students would do the homework.The midterm exam was a day of reckoning for those that didn’t when they
inevitably got a D or E on the exam.The
students learned that the motivation to do the work and learn the material was
on them (intrinsic motivation) versus what they were used to in high school
where the motivation was mostly coming from parents and teachers (extrinsic
motivation).Also, in those ‘analog’
days, the exams were all done in blue books.
My goal is to get to move toward the midterm/final exam model starting
with this next term.Here is what I am
thinking about doing:
Reintroducing
in-class exams:Midterm and final exams will
be given in class.They will be done in
bluebooks with nothing else on the desk except a pencil, an eraser, and a
calculator with no internet connection.At
least half of the points in the class will be from these exams.In Operations, half of the final will be the CSCMP
certification exam.
Discussions:We will keep assigning readings/video based discussions
as usual but they will not be graded.Doing
them or not doing them will be up to the student.There will be questions on the readings/video
on the midterm and final exams.
Papers:I will still assign two papers.The major change here is that the students must
use AI and include all the prompts and AI answers in appendices of the paper.The main paper need only be 700-1200 words with
2000-4000 words of AI content attached.Grading
will mainly be participation.The midterm
final exams will have short answer questions on the paper topics to verify they
learning something from these assignments.
Online
Materials:The Operations Class will continue to use the
CSCMP Materials but for less points than now given.The same for the Hawkes Learning part of Microeconomics.
I have spent
a considerable amount of time thinking about this and have been feeling a wee
bit proud of myself for this scheme to use AI productively and to assess
students with midterms and finals devoid of AI.But I know I am not that uniquely clever.So, I queried Gemini AI with the following:“Have the sales of bluebooks increased?”Per the output below, I am very accurate in
my assessment that ‘I am not that uniquely clever.’
=== Gemini AI output ===
Yes, sales of physical blue
books—the staple-bound booklets used for college examinations—have seen a
significant and unexpected increase as of 2025–2026. This resurgence is
primarily driven by academic institutions returning to in-class, handwritten
exams to combat AI-assisted cheating.
Recent Sales Trends (2024–2025)
Data from various universities and industry trackers show a
sharp rise in demand:
Widespread Growth: Nationwide, blue book sales
nearly tripled between 2022 and October 2025,
exceeding $300,000 in the first 10 months of 2025 alone.
University-Specific Surges:
UC Berkeley: Reported an 80% increase in sales over the two academic
years leading into late 2025.
University of Florida: Sales rose by nearly 50% in the 2024–2025 school year.
Texas A&M University: Experienced a 30% increase in campus bookstore sales.
Manufacturing Impact: Roaring Spring Paper Products, a
major Pennsylvania-based supplier, reported a notable upswing in production to
meet this new demand.
Primary Drivers
Combating AI Cheating: With the rise of advanced generative AI
(like ChatGPT), professors are increasingly replacing take-home essays and
digital tests with in-person, proctored exams that require students to
demonstrate knowledge in real-time.
Low-Tech Security: Handwritten exams provide a
straightforward way to ensure students are producing original work without
digital assistance.
As usual, I am the only one in the house ‘stirring’ at the early hour
this Christmas morning.I want to open
the window and yell down to and call out to a passing young fellow as did a
reborn Scrooge in Dickens' iconic tale.
I could easily do that, but, alas, there would be no passing “boy in
Sunday clothes.’There is no Poulterer “in
the next street but one, at the corner” with “a prize Turkey that was hanging up there --Not the little prize
Turkey: the big one.”It is after all
the suburbs of Chicago and not the bustling streets of London in the 1800s.I could stare out the window this morning for
a few hours before seeing anyone pass by.Even then, it is unlikely that it would be a lad dressed in his Sunday
best.It would probably be an adult in
sweats, walking their dog.
I
could still reenact the scene by myself.I could go upstairs, as it needs to be a second floor window.I could throw up the sash and yell out to the
still and calm of this morning the Scrooge lines and someone would eventually
answer… most likely my wife, rudely wakened by my thespian need to reenact this
iconic scene.She would, no doubt,
recognize the lines and from whence they came and she would, with even less
doubt, inquire with a well-founded air of stern astonishment, “What the heck
are you doing.”
As
fun as that might be, just conjuring up the thought and beginning this annual
Christmas letter with that notion is more than enough.
Why
has this notion popped into my head?Why
‘A Christmas Carol’ and why that scene?
Well…
I do feel a bit reborn in the Christmas Spirit.It has been a heck of a year and mostly a good year.I have had both knees replaced, the left in
January and the right in June, giving me more and better mobility.While that has happened, I also realize, the
rest of my body is 72+ years old.I have
seen a few good friends, musician friends, pass on this year.I realize that this will only happen with
greater frequency.While there is the
realization that this is most certainly part of life and this stage of life, it
does have a certain sobering impact.But
is it is sobering in a good way that has me appreciating everything and
everyone on a higher level.
Another
reason that scene was top of mind this morning was that I know four intelligent,
remarkable, and delightful boys.They
are my four grandsons:Aris, Vaughn,
Sasoun, and Haig.They are indeed
intelligent, remarkable, and delightful lads though I am the first to admit my perspective
is certainly biased in this regard.I am
also blessed with an intelligent, remarkable, and delightful lass in my life:my granddaughter Lara.None of them are with us physically today but
are perpetually in our hearts and in my thoughts.Through the magic of FaceTime, we will see
them later this morning.
We
did have an intelligent, remarkable, and delightful lad with us on Christmas
Eve.Our two month old grandnephew,
Massis, was with us last night.Needless
to say, he stole the show and was the center of attention as he was the grand
kiddo of any kind at our Christmas Eve gathering.
It
is no wonder that this scene from Dicken’s classic was on my mind this
morning.
Wishing
on and all a very Merry Christmas and healthy, happy, and prosperous 2026.If I could, I would have several remarkable,
intelligent, delightful lads bring each of you a prize turkey and cup of good
cheer.
From 'A Christmas Carol'
Running
to the window, he opened it, and put out his head. No fog, no mist; clear,
bright, jovial, stirring, cold; cold, piping for the blood to dance to; Golden
sun-light; Heavenly sky; sweet fresh air; merry bells. Oh, glorious! Glorious!
"What's to-day?" cried
Scrooge, calling downward to a boy in Sunday clothes, who perhaps had loitered
in to look about him.
"EH?" returned the boy
with all his might of wonder.
"What's to-day, my fine
fellow?" said Scrooge.
"To-day!" replied the
boy. "Why, CHRISTMAS DAY.”
"It's
Christmas Day!" said Scrooge to himself. "I haven't missed it. The
Spirits have done it all in one night. They can do anything they like. Of
course they can. Of course they can. Hallo, my fine fellow!"
"Hallo!" returned the
boy.
"Do you know the Poulterer's
in the next street but one, at the corner?" Scrooge inquired.
"I should hope I did,"
replied the lad.
"An intelligent boy!"
said Scrooge. "A remarkable boy! Do you know whether they've sold the
prize Turkey that was hanging up there?--Not the little prize Turkey: the big
one?"
"What! the one as big as
me?" returned the boy.
"What a delightful
boy!" said Scrooge. "It's a pleasure to talk to him. Yes, my
buck!"
"It's hanging there
now," replied the boy.
"Is it?" said Scrooge.
"Go and buy it."
"Walk-ER!" exclaimed
the boy.
"No, no," said Scrooge,
"I am in earnest. Go and buy it, and tell 'em to bring it here, that I may
give them the directions where to take it. Come back with the man, and I'll
give you a shilling. Come back with him in less than five minutes, and I'll
give you half-a-crown!"
In my December 4, 2025 post, Part 2: Is Quality an Issue Again? , I wrote about my appreciation for quality of my iMac desktop
computer.I bought this when I joined
the full time faculty at North Park University in 2014.I wanted a large screen desktop computer for course,
development, grading, and general use.The
version I wanted cost me $1,500 or 1,600 and I remember contemplating the purchase
for several weeks because of the high price.Ultimately,
I decided to splurge and bought the PC in November of that year.
It was one of the best decisions I ever made.I admired the sleek design of the machine and
the Bluetooth keyboard and trackpad.I
really loved the large 27 inch screen in which I could have a student
assignment and the answer key open and visible at the same time for
grading.The large screen was also helpful
in course development when I would have an MS Word or PowerPoint that I was
creating open at the same time as a reference document.I loved it for watching YouTubes for either
education, music, or entertainment.I also
used to the iMac for creating posts for this blog, articles for the Armenian
Weekly, and for sorting through and editing the myriad photographs and videos I
take for both the articles and general family use.During COVID, all my courses and the two task
forces I was part of moved online.I was
on the iMac most of the day working from home.It was the perfect home set-up during those pandemic times.
The iMac was a workhorse and, even more importantly, a durable and
reliable workhorse.In the 11 years of
usage, I had one issue with a virus for which an online session with Apple’s help
desk got it all cleaned up.There were
myriad upgrades of the operating system, the various apps I use, and the MS
Office suite of applications that all happened seamlessly.
In 2018 in a blog piece, Old
Car - New Car, I wrote the following praising my 2002 Toyota 4Runner:
I
remember hearing a Toyota executive address us in the study mission to Japan
that, and I paraphrase, their goal was to have their customers happier with
their vehicles with each year of ownership. I was really surprised to hear this
as cars and truck wear out. They start losing value from the moment you buy
them. Repairs simply become more expensive as components wear out. To achieve
their vision, they would have to have excellent engineering and precision
manufacturing…
My iMac had this same quality attribute.My happiness and satisfaction with this
product increased with each year of ownership.In the same period, I have had four university issued laptops which all
died in 2-4 years.My cost per year for
the iMac was less than if I had paid $500-600 for each of those laptops.Computers aren’t cars, but they do age and in
their own way ‘wear-out.’Electronics in
phones and computers are made of perishable components.The are not in the same category of fruits
and vegetables which are truly perishable as they can rot and need to be
trashed in a matter of days.Electronic
components are different.They are perishable in the sense that innovation of
newer and more capable components render older components useless even though
they are still perfectly functional.This is what happened to my iMac.It works perfectly.But because
of the age of the CPU, I can no longer update the operating system, and many
apps includes the MS Office Suite of Word, Excel, and PowerPoint on which ~80%
of my work is built upon.Within a matter
of a few months, the performance of my iMac began to wane requiring more
frequent reboots and I simply had to make a change.
This morning, December 21, 2025, I wiped the hard drive of the best
computer I have ever owned, shut it down on last time, drove it to the town
refuge center, and gingerly deposited it in electronics bin.There were no tears or swells of emotions,
but it was a somber moment.
There
is a trend, maybe even a phenomenon, in and around Chicago.Middle Eastern coffee houses are popping up
all over.The are not, as yet, as
ubiquitous as that small taco joints that in neighborhood stores that seem to
come and go with the seasons.This coffee
house craze reminds me of similar phenomena and fads from decades ago such as movie
rental stores and cell phones stores.
What
kind of coffee houses?No, not Starbucks
or anything similar.
These
are Middle Eastern coffee and sweet shops.Most of them are Yemeni in name or coffee brews.Some are Turkish or Kurdish.One I know of was started by a Kurdish
immigrant who recently sold it a Mexican immigrant.I am guessing these are fashioned after shops
in the Middle East where drinking alcohol is discouraged and gathering in
coffee houses is a valued pastime.These
shops are all well, appointed, well lit, with a color scheme that is basically white
with gold or word trim and accents.
My
favorite of all these places is Nubar Café.It is near North Park University.I can walk here from my office.Until
a few months ago, it was a Brazilian café which was OK but nothing
special.I was driving by in late October,
and I saw the sign for Nubar Café and got excited as Nubar is an Armenian male
name.I couldn’t stop in that day, but with
the aid of Siri, I called them as I was anxious to see if they were Armenian
owned.I ended up speaking to the owner,
Zarya, who told me that she is Kurdish from Northern Iraq and her husband,
Kadir, was also Kurdish from Van, Turkey.Zarya told me that “nubar” means fresh start or new beginning in Kurdish.It is indeed an inviting pleasant place for a
solo or more social coffee.
This
coffee house phenomenon is summarized as follows per Google’s Gemini AI:
The rise of
Yemeni coffee shops in the U.S. is a booming trend, driven by demand for
"third places" (social spots outside home/work) for Muslim
communities seeking alcohol-free socializing, and a wider audience for unique,
spiced coffee & rich desserts like Adeni Chai, offering late-night vibes
with cardamom-infused drinks, attracting diverse crowds to vibrant spaces that
honor Yemeni heritage and family farms. Led by pioneers like Qahwah House
(which started in Dearborn, MI), these independent and chain stores (like Haraz
Coffee House and Qamaria Yemeni Coffee Co. ) are expanding nationwide,
transforming local coffee culture with their distinct flavors and community
focus.
Where
Starbuck’s has moved to more grab and go stores, these Middle Eastern coffee
shops are designed for comfort and ambiance for the express purpose for people
sit and enjoy your coffee, desserts, or light meals on site.These
style coffee houses exist to provide vital social hubs for Muslim
communities, offering a safe, alcohol-free alternative to bars, catering to
families, students, and remote workers.The few I have visited here have very diverse
clienteles. I believe these coffee houses appeal to everyone that likes and
drinks coffee or tea.I also believe
that the pace at which these coffee houses are being built will exceed the
demand and not all will survive.
This
is my third time visiting Nubar Café.It
is a delightful place.The coffee is
very good, the food and desserts are equally good.One of their offerings is Kurdish coffee
which is espresso or Turkish/Armenian coffee with thin slivers of
pistachio.It is creamy and a wee bit
chewy in a very good way.The simits, boregs,
and sandwiches are very tasty and all worth trying.The desserts feature baklavas, cheesecakes,
and lokhoums.It is a great place just
to have a coffee, coffee and desert, and even lunch.
There are always
people in the café.Some, like me today,
are on their laptops.Others are with
friends and family, talking, laughing, and enjoying the fare.I see me as a regular at Nubar Café.
Yesterday, December 12th, was our December graduation at North
Park University.The fall term of 2025 is
‘officially’ over.For professors, we
still have to finish up and turn in our grades by the 17th.While finishing up grading assignments and
then tallying up the final grades, it is also a time for reflection.Personally, I reflect on the students in my
classes this term and those who graduated yesterday.I reflect on the excellent students and those
that struggled, for any variety of reasons, to get by the skin of their teeth.
I also reflect on being a professor.It is a profession I have always wanted to be part of.It is a profession for which I took a circuitous
path, almost a random walk, to finally realize.I am thankful and grateful to have achieved this as the last stage of my
working career.
Beyond being appreciative, I reflect on the state of the profession, in
general, and how it and higher education is being challenged and stressed in this
day and age.What are the stresses and
challenges?There are several.First, is that we are experiencing a decline
in the college age population.This is threatening
financial well-being of all schools, especially smaller colleges and universities
with tight budgets and smaller endowments.
Undergraduate
enrollment has been generally falling since its peak in 2010. While there was a
slight rebound in enrollment in 2023 and 2024, the structural decline in the
number of potential students is a major headwind.
The
"Cliff" Arrives: Experts indicate that 2025 will mark the peak year
for high school graduates in the U.S. and the beginning of the anticipated
sharp drop-off in the number of applicants.
Long-Term Outlook:
The number of high school graduates is projected to decline steadily through at
least 2041, with one analysis projecting a 13% drop nationwide by that year.
Regional Variation:
The decline is not uniform. The Northeast and Midwest are expected to see the
steepest drops in their youth populations, while the Sun Belt and Mountain West
regions may see stable or even increased numbers due to domestic migration.
Impact on
Institutions: Smaller, tuition-dependent colleges with limited endowments in
affected regions are the most vulnerable, with a potential acceleration in
college closures. Elite and highly selective institutions are likely to be more
insulated.
Universities and colleges will close.We have already experienced that.This will decrease the number of professor positions in the
country.Here is a summary, selectively
cut and pasted, from Gemini AI:
Between 2008 and
2023, nearly 300 colleges and universities ceased operations. The majority of
these (over 60%) were for-profit institutions, but small private non-profits
are rapidly catching up.
A model by the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects that in a worst-case scenario (a
sharp 15% enrollment drop), up to 80 colleges could close annually between 2025
and 2029.
Who is most at risk?
The "closure
zone" is very specific. Elite universities (Ivies, major state flagships)
are safe. The colleges closing almost always fit this profile:
Small Size: Fewer than 1,000 students.
Tuition Dependent: They rely on tuition for >80%
of their revenue (they have almost no endowment).
High Acceptance Rate: They accept >80% of
applicants (meaning they cannot simply "lower standards" to get
more bodies in the door).
Rural Location: Located in rural areas in the
Northeast or Midwest (e.g., Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York).
The second stress and challenge is AI.It is what I used to generate the above summary using Google’s Gemini AI
and then cut and pasted into this post.Students are already using AI to solve problems from the sciences and
business that require math.They are
writing papers and preparing discussion posts using AI.They use AI to save time and cut corners.From a productivity standpoint, this is
admirable.On the other hand, many students
are using it blindly.These students
just enter prompts into AI and then cut and paste the output into the
assignment document and turn it in… quite possibly without reading or studying
the output.
There is nothing wrong with saving time and being more productive.It is a sign of progress.The problem is when students just use it to
click, paste, and check the box on finishing an assignment without learning
anything except how to cut corners.AI
can and will eventually do this by itself in the workplace, so there will be no
need for graduates with this skill.
Thirdly, and this is related to the above, how will AI alter the teaching
of classes?Will AI takeover and require
less human being professors?I can see a
learning AI platform using the Socratic method to teach students.Of course, such a system would have to lock
down ALL of one’s devices and detect eye movements indicative of checking other
sources.To me, this seems
inevitable.I asked Gemini, what percentage
of reduction in professor positions might be eliminated by AI.The response was, “There is no single
consensus percentage for job loss, but major economic forecasts distinguish
clearly between task automation (which is high) and job elimination (which is
currently low).”This table was also
generated.
Between the demographic challenge and the AI challenges/opportunities, I
am convinced that the number of professor positions per 1,000 college students
will decrease in the coming years.The
best of the best, the skillsets for which will evolve, will be retained and
their roles will change per the Gemini AI generated table below.If I asked my colleagues how our roles will
change as we use more and more AI, we would brainstorm this exact table:
To quote Bob Dylan, “these times they are a changin’.”The times are always changing and evolving.In higher education, we seem to be and an inflection
point where pace of change is increasing.
