I read an article yesterday that opened my eyes. Uncharacteristically, I did not bookmark it or clip it to Evernote. But, the premise was so obvious, there was no need to.
Basically, it stated that the Roaring Twenties followed the 1918 Flu Pandemic. That made so much sense. I wondered why I had not thought of it myself. People are Covid weary in this Pandemic. Everyone I know is weary. With the return of lockdowns, you feel the tension and stress all around. We are at an extreme, right now, of not being out and about, not intermingling with others even in benign ways, and certainly not socializing the way we have been used to all our lives. It may get even worse before the vaccines are distributed, administered, and free us from this viral threat.
When we are free of this virus, the release of all this tension and stress will have that Newtonian equal and opposite effect. People will make up for lost time. We caught a little glimpse of people pushing against the locking down, the quarantining, travel restrictions, and threatening violence to be free to do whatever they want.
The Roaring Twenties were not only due to the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The US experienced what we used to call a triple whammy. Besides the Flu Pandemic, there was a horrific World War I and a pretty severe recession in 1920 and 1921. The end of World War began the American Century. Freed from war, the flu, and the recession, people made-up for lost time and celebrated their new found prosperity.
To provide a glimpse of what might happen, consider wedding receptions. Many people opted to get married this year with all the limits on social gatherings. They had modest ceremonies and very small receptions of close family and friends of 10 – 20 people. Many are planning more extravagant celebrations. There will be a great demand on venues, caterers, florists, photographers, and musicians. People will party with gusto and they will pay for it. All the musicians I know are looking forward to being really busy when this happens.
Oddly, the stock market has been on a tear during this pandemic. Last week the Dow crested 30,000 for the first time ever. Businesses of all types have had to deal with the disruption of the pandemic. Some, like Amazon, have grown and thrived. Others, like any of the movie theater chains… well, businesses are a bust. And, there is everything in between.
One that particularly sticks out in my mind is sports. Sports are big money in the US. Back in March play was suspended in hockey and basketball. The baseball season was postponed. The management of MLB, the NBA, the NHL, and add to them the NFL focused all of their time and energy in figuring out how to resume or start their seasons. Resume and start they did. The precautions taken seemed to work in baseball, hockey, and surprisingly basketball. Football, which started with the second surge and being more up close and personal, has not done as well. Greed and the entertainment value aside, it all seems misguided. Yet, in their defense, everyone wants to maintain their livelihoods and ply their trades.
It is not 1918. We lived in a different world. The world is smaller and more interdependent today. It is also more densely populated. In 1918, the population was 1.9 billion. Today it is 7.8. In 1918, they had newspapers, silent movies, and books. Radios weren’t popularized until the late 1920s. Today, we have video conferencing in our homes, on demand video, cell phones, and computers that keep us connected with each other and happenings in the world in ways that can only be described as remarkable.
Yes, times are different. But, I believe the 2020’s will be roaring once we are past the pandemic. We must also keep in ming, though, that the first Roaring Twenties came to an abrupt halt with the Great Depression.
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