Contagion: Conspiracy Theories

www.skeptic.com

      Whenever there are events, like this pandemic, that impact, shock, and stun everyone it is inevitable that conspiracy theories will rise and gain traction.  People are searching for rhyme or reason in such times.  We look insights and understanding as why things happen so we can find some kind of assurance, stability, and even closure in the knowing.  This applies even if the reasons and explanations are nefarious.   In my lifetime, I have seen such theories about the Kennedy assassination, the moon landing, and 9-11 to name just a few. 

Now, we have them about this pandemic. 

What makes for a good conspiracy theory?  I am no expert but, as you all have suspected, I have no problem playing one in my own blog. 

First off there has to be an event or happening for which people are stunned and bewildered.  This virus has caused a pandemic and we don’t know why.  We don’t do well when there are no clear and simple explanations and even more so where there no easy solutions.  We are used to serious issues and problems being solved completely and permanently in the time span of a feature film.  We want and long for easy answers and quick solutions. 

This virus has disrupted our lives and our economy for two months.  No one can tell us with much reliability how much longer it will last.  We find ourselves asking and being asked a lot of questions for which there are no good answers.  Is it nature? An inevitability of overpopulation?  Was it perpetrated by a known group or an unknown sinister cabal wanting to create chaos to gain power, control, or money? 

We ae confused and worried about the future.  We are worried about our health and the health and well-being of our loved ones.  We are worried about our livelihoods. 

Second, the conspiracy story has to plausible.  It should be founded on some truths and able to pivot at key points of the narrative in the direction the authors want it to go.  Not only does it have to be plausible, but it needs that pivotal catalyst or accelerant.

Accelerant?  Catalyst?

A good theory needs a revelation of a secret that like a missing piece of the puzzle, brings the whole thing into focus.  The secret has to introduce a bad guy or a bad organization, that cabal I spoke of, that masterminded and perpetrated the crime.  Yes, the secret must make the event at hand a crime and reveal who was behind it and why.  It must make it all make some semblance of sense.

Speaking of films and novels, we love a good conspiracy.  Good conspiracies and heroes bustitng them up and delivering justice make for gripping action narratives.  I love them myself.  Have all these films and novels sensitized us to yearn for conspiracy theories at times like this?  Or, are films and novels are simply a response to some collective deep seeded belief and dread that we are but mere pawns of the groups that actually control things. 

The whole thing must be revealed into the mainstream but not from the mainstream media as, naturally, they cannot be trusted.  The revelation must come from an anonymous, overlooked, or discredited source.  This adds to the drama and creates the aura of a deep dark secret being revealed just to you… and millions upon millions of others at the same time.

With regard to this pandemic, are we just sheep as many suggest?  We were told to stay home and for the most part we did.  I kind of thought when I ventured out all the bridges and roads would be fixed.  Cleary, it is not that kind of conspiracy.  Are there any conspiracies that want to make things better?

It has been two months in this pandemic new normal.  We are all worried, frustrated, and not sure what the future holds.  We want a return to life as we knew it.  We want to be out and with people.  We want to watch sports, go shopping, and to socialize.  As there is no clear path out of this because of all the unknowns, we are ripe for the kinds of conspiracies clogging up social media lately.

Oh and one last thing, did I mention it is an election year?

Contagion: Random Thoughts

  

   Opening Up the Economy:  We are trying to open, to come out of the lockdown, to get the economy moving, and return to normal.  Different states and municipalities are taking different approaches and moving at different rates to open based on how much the pandemic impacted them.

There is no clear-cut path on how to do this.  The news media is not much help.  As our President is pushing this, MSNBC believes it is the most irresponsible policy ever implemented in the history of mankind.  Fox News takes a completely opposite stance in their support of his efforts.  The truth is somewhere in the murky middle.

We have to do something.  We have to begin to see how to bring the economy to life again at some point.  Otherwise, we risk jeopardizing the food supply chains.  That would be a game changer for sure. To what degree might this happen?  In what time frame?  No one can predict.

On the other hand, if people are out and about patronizing stores, restaurants, and other businesses, there is some real risk that the incidence of Covid-19 cases may spike up again.  No one can state to what degree this will or will not happen.  We are simply going to slowly and cautiously emerge and see what happens.  The precautions vary across the country but are mostly in line with The White House and CDC Guidelines for Opening Up America Again.

We are moving forward and shall see how this turns out.

People are getting Cabin Fever:  People are tired of the isolation.  They are tired of the lockdown.  They are tired of being cooped up at home.  If they are not working from home, they are bored out of their minds while being scared of their finances.  People working from home and managing their children’s remote schooling are run ragged. 

 People want to get back to what is or was normal.  Most of us are behaving ourselves and generally following the protocols.  In several states, there have been protests against the lockdowns.  They are claiming that their freedoms have been curtailed and enough is enough.  In a recent Michigan demonstration, the protesters were armed and entered the state capital building.  Also in Michigan security guard was murdered for having turned away people from a Flint Family Dollar Store for not having a mask as required by state law.  What is going on in my home state?

Around here, in the North Shore suburbs of Chicago.  We are still in lockdown officially, but the lockdown is a bit more relaxed with each passing week.  When I have the occasion to drive around (note that I used a whopping three-eighths of tank of gas in seven weeks), I see more and more people out driving each time I am out.  The parking lots of the grocery stores are almost as full as they would have normally been.  If the weather is good, many people are out walking, running, or biking.  As of this month, we are supposed to all wear masks in public.  This past weekend on a Saturday drive, I saw a policeman, unmasked, talking to a driver he had just pulled over.

Murder Hornets?  Are you kidding me?  On top of all this, a leading news story earlier this year was that Asian Murder Hornets have been spotted in the Pacific Northwest.  Like the Emerald Ash Bore before them, these invaders hitched a ride with some of the millions of containers that make their way from China to us.  They are the size of my thumb, one of these sting multiple times and packs like seven times the venom of our pedestrian American hornets.  The kill fifty people a year in Japan.  Furthermore, the live off of honeybees and could decimate that already fragile and vital part of our agricultural chain.   

On the positive side, per the New York Times, they fry ‘em up either larva or adult and eat them in Japan.  With hot sauce?

Roger Maris: 61 in 61

1961 Topps Baseball card

     When the baseball season started in 1961, I was only seven years old and in the second grade.  I would turn eight in mid-season.  My Dad was a big sports fan of all Detroit and Boston teams.  I was still a few years away from become a serious Detroit Tigers and Red Wings fan.

I do believe I started to collect baseball cards about that year.  Many of my classmates were into it.  As it seemed fun, and all the guys were talking about it, I started doing it as well.   I believe it was a nickel for five cards and a piece of bubble gum.  The popular brand of that era was Topps.  There were also baseball cards on the back of certain Post cereal boxes.  I collected some of them as well.  The cereal box cards were a distant second to the Topps cards in terms of quality including not having that distinctive bubble-gum smell.  I never had a great collection, maybe thirty or so cards a year.   Many friends and classmates had many more.   This was all well before the collecting of baseball cards became an adult the crazy obsession it was in the 1980s and 90s.

It was through the collection of baseball cards that I got to know the names of the various baseball teams and players.  I got to know the big stars like Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Whitey Ford, and Willie Mays were because the guys were excited when they got one of these cards and they showed them off.   I especially got to know the stars of the hometown Detroit Tigers like Norm Cash, Frank Lary, Rocky Colavito, Jim Bunning, and Al Kaline who just passed away this year.  I was sure even then that Topps limited the number of Al Kaline cards in Michigan to keeps us buying cards in the hope of landing a coveted Kaline card.

Part of the second-grade guy talk about baseball cards was the lore and legend of whose older brother or uncle had a classic old card.  That is when I first learned about the likes of Ty Cobb, Hank Greenburg, Dizzy Dean, Lou Gehrig and, of course, Babe Ruth.  Babe Ruth, the sultan of swing, the man and legend, was the holder of the single season and lifetime home run record.

It was that year, 1961, that I learned who Roger Maris was and of the furious race between himand his Yankee teammate, Mickey Mantle, to break Babe Ruth’s single season home run record.  While Colavito is rarely mentioned in that race, he did slug an impressive 45 home runs that same year.  But, as we all know, it was Maris who broke Ruth’s single season home run record of 60.  Maris hit 61 in ’61. 

I recall we kids were proud of and kind of idolized Maris but that our parents’ generation weren’t impressed because of their reverence for Ruth.  It rubbed off on me to some degree when compounded with the fact that he never hit even half that number of home runs in a season.  Roger Maris fell off my radar as he played for the Yankees through 1966 and then finished-up with the Cardinals for the 1967 and ’68 seasons.

I was motivated to write this because I recently watched the 61* (2001).  It gave me a better perspective on the times, the fans, the New York sportswriters, and, of course, Maris and Mantle.  I learned that it was a myth that his single season home run record has an asterisk because Roger Maris set his record in an era where there were 162 games per season and Babe Ruth set his record in 1927 when there were only 154 games per season.  The notion of an asterisked record was suggested by the commissioner of baseball at the time, Ford Frick, who we later came learn was a ghost writer for Babe Ruth.

Maris and Mantle were friends.  The same cannot be said about Ruth and Gehrig when they battled for the home run title in 1927.  Mantle noted "Roger Maris was the best all-around baseball player I ever saw."  Was he?  His lifetime batting average was 260 which is not too special.  Consider his other achievements (Wikipedia):

• 7 time All-Star (1959 – 1962)
• 3 time World Series champion (1961, 1962, 1967)
• AL pennant champion team (1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964)
• NL pennant champion team (1967, 1968)
• 2 time AL MVP (1960, 1961)
• 2 time  AL RBI leader (1960, 1961)
• AL Gold Glove Award (1960)
• New York Yankees retired his #9
• MLB single season home run champion (1961–1998)
• AL leader in home runs, runs scored, and total bases (1961)
• AL leader in RBIs and extra base hits (1960, 1961)
• AL leader in slugging average (1960)
• AL leader in fielding average as right fielder (1960, 1964)
• NL leader in fielding average as right fielder (1967)
  

Those are some amazing accomplishments.  By all accounts, he was a very good player.  He experienced a lot of stress during 1961 that probably cut his career short and even his life.  Maris died too young, in 1983 at the age of 51, of non-Hodgkins lymphoma. 

Oddly, some say shockingly, Roger Maris is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  It is a shame.  His breaking Babe Ruth’s record and not being the kind of personality that the New York sportswriters wanted him to be, soured him to the sportswriters and hence the public.  Sportswriters vote for the Hall of Fame.  Here is an excerpt from Steve Buttry in his blog, Hated Yankees, posted in 2009:

Roger Maris is not in the Hall of Fame because he didn’t suck up to baseball writers during his chase of Babe Ruth. Period. Commissioner Ford Frick hated him for breaking Ruth’s record and baseball writers hated him for not being their buddy and not being Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth. Every other excuse anyone gives for him not being in the Hall of Fame is fiction.

In Quora, December 3, 2017, B. R. Beardon wrote:

I think the reason is he didn’t play long enough, not that he wasn’t good enough. Hitting 61 ruined Maris. He was so hated and taunted by the Yankee fans that year and following years that the pressure must have been enormous. The year he hit 61 his hair fell out from stress.

He said, "Every day I went to the ballpark in Yankee Stadium as well as on the road people were on my back. The last six years in the American League were mental hell for me. I was drained of all my desire to play baseball."

Mantle backed that up. In every book I’ve read on Mantle he said Maris was a really good ball player who was pounded unmercifully by the fans. It was Mickey Mantle’s opinion that given a fair shake, Maris would have been a great baseball player.

On NPR, July 17, 2013, Frank Deford said:

In 1961, the American League schedule was lengthened by eight games to 162, and it was on this date that summer that the commissioner, of whom it was once written: An empty cab drove up to the curb and Ford Frick got out - declared that even if some player broke Babe Ruth's record of 60 home runs, it would not count if he needed more games than Ruth had had.

So, when Roger Maris hit his 61st in the last game of the longer season, the distinction did not displace Ruth in the record books, but was merely listed along with The Babe's lesser number. This all became moot in 1998 when Mark McGwire hit his 62nd homer, there to be graciously greeted by Maris' family survivors and, of course, Sammy Sosa then three-times topped Maris and Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001.

Subsequently, McGwire admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs, and the only people who don't assume the same of Bonds and Sosa also believe that Neil Armstrong's Moon landing was a hoax and that Ford Frick was a wise man.

We may not have any Major League Baseball this year.  Next year, 2021, will mark the 60^th Anniversary of Maris’s 61 home run season.  I hope the baseball world recognizes and celebrates the breaking of that record by an excellent ballplayer by, from all counts, was a good and decent person.

Contagion: Promise of Utopia?

Rainbow seen on April 27, 2020 that may
have inspired this post...

    I am still, to some degree, a product of my teen years in the late 1960s and early 1970s.  It was the time of Woodstock, the Age of Aquarius, the Summer of Peace, antiwar protests, feminism, the ecology movement, the civil rights movement, the gay rights movement, and more.  It was a time of change and hope.  It was a time when many of my generation believed, if only in our youthful optimism, that we could and would create a better world.  We were on the brink of that Age of Aquarius and it was to bring a change in human consciousness that would bring peace, harmony, cooperation, and prosperity for all us.

Fast forward fifty some years  and it hasn’t happened yet.   People and nations continue to act in self-interest.  With all of our technology, knowledge, and speed of communication, there is still a great distance between the rich and poor.  We act in the short term hoping that advances in science and technology will save us from the perils of overpopulation and the depletion of the resources of this planet.

It is not my intention to paint a grim picture in the midst of this pandemic.  It is more so to set the stage for a naïve hope I am about to reveal. 

During this unprecedented time, the entire world is fighting the virus and our lives and economies are on-hold or decline.  We are collectively unsure about our short-term future on a grand scale.  We have yet to find a cure though, slowly, we are learning to manage the contagion via testing, temperature monitoring, and isolation as needed and waiting to get back to some semblance of what we call normal. 

In this we have seen a reduction in air pollution, the planet is actually vibrating less, and people are spending more time with loved ones which is generally positive.  I got to thinking that maybe just maybe we have a unique opportunity to achieve of the emergence of a collective consciousness that takes us to that Aquarian ideal, a perfect world, a utopia.  It makes so much sense.  Something like this pandemic should have us all taking stock of what is important and not only questioning our priorities but realigning them for betterment of all of mankind and world we live in. 

Alas, I see no one really talking about such things; at least, no one I know.  There is not one leader suggesting a new level of global cooperation with a long-term perspective.  What I see is everyone wanting to return to the way things were two months ago.  Certainly, that is the life and lifestyle we are all used to. 

But, come on, I was really hoping this could that event that would move us, en masse, to a better place, to the creation of a utopia

A utopia is an ideal; a dream.  It is a concept.  It cannot be achieved.  It certainly cannot be achieved in a few short months during this pandemic.  I know this but still I had hope.

This is a dream of the 60s, that while diminished, still lives in me.  I am glad for that.

Chidem Inch: The Armenian Genocide 105th Anniversary

     Every April, I dedicate a post to the commemoration of the Armenian Genocide. I have done this since I started this writing project, first as a monthly e-letter in 2004 and then, in 2009, as this blog. In many years, I have written about the Genocide years.
     The Genocide drove most of the Armenian nation out of the ancestral homelands and created the diaspora from where I am writing. It was a such a traumatic and devasting event in our recent history that it dominates us well after the generation that survived it has essentially all passed on. Their children are now dwindling in numbers. 
     I am not sure of the percentages, but there are a large number of Armenians that love our culture and heritage and strive to keep it central in our lives no matter where we live. Many of us in the diaspora, sadly, have melted away into whatever country they live in and lost any most of what the rest of us fight to maintain whatever degree we can. 
     The 100th Anniversary of the Genocide came in 2015. We did commemorate it grandly with all the reverence due to those that perished and what we lost as a people. We commemorated with proud who we are still hear maintaining our culture and heritage. We commemorated with political demands for recognition and reparations. Collectively, we made all the martyrs saints. 
     We wrote novels, poems, and historical analyses. We produced works of fine art and had concerts from folk and classical to jazz and pop. We made films. We did this all to proudly remember and honor our past but proudly, and a bit defiantly, celebrate that we are still here, still Armenian, and we are not about to let that go. 
     Countries around the world began to acknowledge that what happened from 1915 – 1922 in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire was indeed a Genocide. Countries did this in spite of significant lobbying from Turkey who adamantly denies that it was Genocide providing all kinds of spin and distortions of history to make the Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians war criminals instead of victims. There is as resolved to never admit to any crime that could lead to reparations as we are to reclaim our lost lands.
     In this country, we have been fighting, lobbying, and advocating for recognition of the Genocide by the US Congress. Whenever we have been close to having the votes, Turkey would influence our State Department and President to pressure the Congress, particularly the House of Representatives not to pass the resolution. Almost every President claimed to be a friend of the Armenians when they were candidates and then let us down to support Turkey because of an airbase or other diplomatic leverage they had over us. 
     President Trump made no such promise. Yet, in late 2019, the resolutions commemorating and recognizing the Armenian Genocide passed both houses of the US Congress. H. Res 296 on October 29, 2019 by a vote of 405-11 in the House of Representatives. A few short weeks later, S. Res 150 was passed by the US Senate on December 12, 2019 by unanimous consent. It a wonderful culmination of years of effort by Armenians in this country. We never thought we would see it happen and finally it did. It could be argued that Congress was condemning the Turkish incursions into Northern Syria to battle our Kurdish allies more than they were doing something for Armenians. 
     Since the passage of these resolutions, nothing more has happened as the world’s attention is now focused on the Covid-19 pandemic. Aside from this, I do not expect Turkey to cave in and offer the Armenians anything remotely related to admission or reparations. The government there is adamant and definitely racist. They are not about to do anything positive for Armenians who haven’t lived there for over a hundred years. Heck, they consistently suppress and harass their Kurdish population who are actually Moslem. But this will not keep us from demanding and working for justice. 
     What else can we do? We must focus on the Republic of Armenia. We have to bolster its economy and shore up its defenses as it lies between Turkey and Azerbaijan. We, in the diaspora, need to strengthen our own communities lest our heritage simply assimilates away. 
     I have read and appreciated the posts of family, friends, and acquaintances on social media to commemorate the 105th Anniversary of the Genocide. Many have added a border to their profile photo stating that they are a descendant of an Armenian Genocide survivor. Others have posted photos of their grandparents and great-grandparents before the Genocide in whatever village or town they hailed from. Others posted quotes from a survivor grandparent or great-grandparent reminding us what a horrific and dismal time it was and thus putting this pandemic into a different perspective.   
     Me? I recorded a lament on the oud. It was Adanayi Voghpuh, a song commemorating the 1909 massacres of Armenians and Assyrians in Adana. It is the saddest and most hauntingly beautiful song I have ever heard.  

My rendition of Adanyi Voghpuh 

     I leave you with the words of a dear friend, Nvair Kadian Beylerian, on Facebook: 

On the night of April 24, 1915, over 250 Armenian intellectuals of Constantinople were arrested, deported and eventually executed. The act, which was ordered by the Minister of Interior Talaat Pasha, was intentionally premeditated to deprive the Armenian population of leadership and any chance for significant resistance. Arrests, deportations, starvation, executions, rape, murder, pillaging ensued ultimately stripping historic Armenian lands of any identifiable Christian Armenians and the death of nearly 2 million ethnic Armenians. We rise from the ashes. 105 years later... We survive. We thrive. We remember. 

Contagion: Working from Home

nextiva.com

     I have experienced two financial crises this century. Certainly, I am not alone in that. Many folks lived through the Great Recession and, now, this Covid-19 Pandemic. In both cases, I spent a lot of time in move home office.      
     The Big Recession: A big factor for me is that during the Great Recession, I was unemployed. I was let go from what ended up being my last corporate position. It was my first time being laid off, terminated, or fired. It was a shock. I had reached a career pinnacle in terms of both salary and title. Suddenly, in September 2008, it was over. The sudden chaotic unravelling on Wall Street was mind numbing. 
     I found myself looking for a job and exploring what to do next as I was not really ready to fully retire at that time. I was one of seemingly millions of men just like me, in their mid-fifties and white, looking for a job. There were millions of us looking for jobs and like only two maybe three jobs available. It was as if the business world was done with us and basically, they were. I was home bound for the most part and my full-time job was to look for a full-time job. Everything I read or was told back then was to stay upbeat, be energetic, and to network a lot. It was most frustrating and, as the probability of actually landing anything was so low, it became dismal. There was, of course, some social interaction but for the most part it was with people just like me. 
     Even though a lot of people were unemployed during the Great Recession, a majority of people were still working. 
      I was able to get some consulting work after several months and that greatly helped as it got me out of the house and back working with people. Until then, I had never appreciated just how important working and being gainfully employed was. 
      The Current Covid-19 Lockdown: This go-around is the same in that I am spending a lot of time at home and most of that being in our library that serves as my home office But, this go-around is different in that I am very busy and I am gainfully employed. I am so very thankful for that. 
     As readers of this blog know, I am a professor of operations management in the School of Business and Nonprofit Management at North Park University. Our Spring break began on March 7. We were to have resumed classes on March 16. We never made it back to campus. Due to this contagion, we have moved all of our classes online. 
     I am currently teaching five courses. Only one of those was scheduled to be online. The other four were traditional face-to-face classes. Our university was not alone. The entire country moved all education, K-12, colleges, and universities, online. 
      I have taught about thirty percent of my classes online. I thought moving those four classes over to an online format would be a lot easier than it was. I also thought running the classes was going to be easier than it was. But then, I know I am sometimes operating under the Planning Fallacy where one believes that tasks take less time than they actually do. This has a whopper of a case in that regard. 
      Bottom-line? I have been crazy business and I love it. 
      It is so much better than the Great Recession simply because I am busy. I am gainfully employed and doing meaningful work that I love. For this, I am so very so very grateful.  
      It seems a majority of this country is homebound. The front-line health providers and those in the food and consumer necessities supply chains are among those that get to venture out to their workplaces. I am ever so appreciative of them for the risks they are taking on our collective behalf. Many others, like me, are working from home. Younger folk, with school age children, are juggling schoolwork, making meals, keeping the children occupied when they aren’t doing schoolwork, and trying to get their own work done. I believe they are even busier than I am. 
     What will come? There are those that are homebound with no work and no income. They are doing home projects as they can and no doubt worrying about their economic futures. 
     Actually, we are all worried about how long this will last and the impact it will have on the economy. There is no shortage of economists, people in the news media, and government and business analysts predicting what the future will look like and the timing for their various prognostications. No one really knows. 
     The outlook for higher education is as fuzzy as it is for every segment of the economy. So while I am grateful for being employed and busy, I am concerned about the my university. I am concerned for our country, for all of us. 
     Over 40,000, at this writing, have lost their lives to this virus. I know a few that have passed and several more that were infected and survived. I feel bad for those that have passed and my heart goes out to their survivors. 
     These are truly unprecedented times.

Contagion: A Bit of a Ramble

     I learned a lesson the other day. Actually, I relearned a lesson that, for the most part, I try to adhere to: Never get involved in politics or religion on social media. It is a no-win proposition. Thankfully, I don’t have to be reminded of it very often. 
     I had re-posted a photo that was actually two photos next to each other. One was from an absurd movie, the kind of base level lunacy, that makes me laugh out loud. The other was from the daily White House press briefing on the Covid-19 crisis. It was a minor post with a few likes and humorous comments. Then, a news story broke saying that the number of deaths in the US from this virus would likely be between 100,000 and 200,000. At this point, a close friend of mine saw the post and got royally pissed off and completely offended, insisting that I take it down. In trying to explain myself, he got even angrier. I took the post down. 
      I hope not to make that error again. The bias and scorn between the pro- and anti-Trump camps is worse than ever. Did we act fast enough? Could we have done more? Should we have we have done more? And… it is still an election year. This is not the time for politics and there is entirely too much of it. The tension is magnified even more by the essential shutting down of our economy. I want to be no part of adding to anyone’s angst. Getting through this with the least number of people dying is the goal. We can do a serious After-Action Review when we are it is over. 
     I vacillate from worrying what is in store for all of us and being hopeful. I am not alone. Many are feeling the same way. I talked with another friend this evening who was despondent about this whole situation. Many will die if we don’t stay at home in self-isolation. We are paying a hefty price not only economically but emotionally especially those who have suffered a loss of a loved one to this virus. 
     There is no need or reason for me upsetting anyone more than the gravity of this situation already has us feeling. 
     So, what will happen in terms of this pandemic and he economy? There are plenty of forecasts and projections on both counts. But forecasts and projections are fancy words for predicting the future. We are reasonably OK at it when the immediate future resembles the immediate past. No matter how intelligent and mathematically gifted the people developing and running these models might be, all bets are off when the immediate future is nothing like the immediate past due to the magnitude of this random shock we have been dealt. 
     It is not all doom and gloom. It seems, at this moment, we may stay well below the estimated amounts stated late last week. With each day our actions, the ramping up the production of much needed equipment, and fast track research changes the immediate future. The economy, well, that is another story. Most everyone is agreeing that this is going to get worse before it gets better. I believe folks smarter than me are constantly at work and obsessed with getting the economy back on track. This is truly unprecedented. I have used that word more in the past month than I have in my entire life up until then. 
     Well there you have it. I suppose I deal with all of this by writing… and hopefully not raising the stress levels in others by doing so.

Contagion: Diversions in Home Isolation

A Los Angeles Class Submarine firing a torpedo.
Pinterest

     This pandemic has certainly been disruptive and unprecedented in so many ways. Businesses of all sizes are in economic free fall. This includes the business of sports. The National Basketball Association outright cancelled the remainder of the 2019 – 2020 season. The National Hockey League, Major League Soccer, and Major League Baseball all postponed their seasons. The NCAA followed suit a few days later and cancelled all sports for the remainder of this school year. Today, the International Olympic Committee decided to postpone the Summer Olympics Games. 

     Basically, the NBA Finals, the NHL Stanley Cup, the NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments, and the start of the Baseball season are not happening when, arguably, we need them the most. The leagues, teams, and players are certainly all losing income, but so are the networks. 

     So, there are no sports at the time when the rather large portion of the population that follows sports could most use them. We are stuck watching reruns. I favor the Big Ten Network where I can watch replays of Michigan football and basketball. Thankfully for ESPN, Tom Brady announced he was signing with Tampa Bay just as all sports closed down. That story will kept them occupied for two weeks. 

     I cannot watch a steady diet of sports reruns. I would have watched March Madness. That is such a great and exciting tournament. I am not sure if my team, the Michigan Wolverines, would have qualified but I am certain the Michigan State Spartans would have. I feel bad for the players and the fans but in the larger scheme, it is a small sacrifice to make the health and well-being of fans and players alike. 

     Tonight, April 6, 2020, was to have been the Championship Game of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. It is one of the sports highlights of the year for me. I never miss it. Many people never miss it. Instead of basketball, I am watching a Netflix series: Winter Sun. 

     We are lucky these days to have access to a large number of films. I have Comcast, Netflix, and Amazon Prime Video. Prime Video is more and more my go-to place for movies. Given that I am writing about not having live sports, it would seem logical that I might be watching sport related movies. 

     I have watched a few sports movies. My favorite sport movies are Pele: Birth of a Legend, Miracle, and Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius. I will watch them whenever they are on. They are motivating and uplifting. Just what we need in these unprecedented times. In these first two weeks of home isolation, I have watched The Natural and The Legend of Bagger Vance. Just this week, I watched The Babe Ruth Story, the 1948 starring William Bendix. Bendix portrayed Babe Ruth in a more idealized light than the 1992 version, The Babe, in which John Goodman played Ruth. 

     More than sports movies, I have watched more movies about seafaring men. I have watched Mutiny on the Bounty with Clark Gable and Charles Laughton and, one of my all-time favorites starring Errol Flynn, The Sea Hawk. I have also watched submarine movies. I love submarine movies and the tension close quarters brings for these stealth warships. This love affair began when I first saw Run Silent, Run Deep, the World War II classic starring Clark Gable and Burt Lancaster. 

     In the past three weeks, I have seen four movies; three about Soviet submarines and another about a US sub rescuing the Russian President from an attempted coup. The Hunt for Red October was the first I watched. It is based on the first Tom Clancy’s first book. The film is as gripping as the novel. The second was based on a true story, K-19: The Widowmaker. The K-19 was the first Soviet ballistic missile submarine. On its maiden voyage, the reactor coolant system had a broken pipe which led to radiation leaks that caused the evacuation of the crew and the boat being towed back to port for extensive repairs. Eight crew members heroically gave their lives to save the rest of the crew. The third movie about a Soviet submarine was Phantom (2013) in which a rogue KGB unit takes over a ballistic submarine, with a phantom propulsion system, with the intent of starting a nuclear war between the US and China. 

     The most recent submarine movie was made in 2018. I missed any advertising for it or I would have seen it in the theaters. Hunter Killer stars Gerard Butler as a US submarine commander. It is a fast-paced movie in which the US sub takes with the aid of a Soviet submarine commander rescues the Russian President from a coup attempt. 

     It doesn't a psychiatrist to figure out that submarines movies appeal to me more because these days we are battling another stealth silent killer in the Covid-19 virus.

     I am hoping and praying that this pandemic ends soon for so many more reasons than just sports or any kind of movies.

Contagion: A Matter of Perspective

     This morning I am watching the news on the only subject on all our minds: the Covid-19 Pandemic. I am toggling between the extremes, as I am prone to do, of MSNBC and Fox News. I am sure of one thing. The truth and best course of action is between the polar views of these two news sources.
     MSNBC caters to those that tend to look at President Trump less favorably. OK… I am trying to be too delicate here. They can’t stand him. They are still besides themselves that he somehow got elected. The talking heads talk about taking too long to react and whatever being done is not enough. One guy even suggested that people not watch the White House briefings on this pandemic and only listen to the medical professionals. They just had a panel talking about the unfairness of the money the Republican Senate is planning to deposit in each taxpayers account. They suggested that the planned distribution is unfair and leaves the lowest income brackets underserved. The went on to talk about the number of people that die daily from living in poverty and that we have never declared and fought a war on this. They went on to talk about what we need to do after this crisis passes to make things better for the poor moving forward. The current segment is now criticizing the Republican Senators that sold stock before the crisis really set in last week.
     Fox News? Well, they cater to folks more likely to vote for President Trump. OK, again, who am I kidding? The viewers of Fox love Trump. They think he is best thing that ever happened to this country. The talking heads here are also talking about this crisis being a war. They are, in contrast, giving credit to Trump and team for reacting quickly and resolutely to rev things up. They put a positive spin on what has been done and how we will get through this.  The talking heads here are talking about the economy and how this will drive us into recession and what we need to do now and afterwards to get the economic engine back to normal. One guy suggested that we are overreacting now to the detriment of the economy and this will drive us into a depression. Others commented that the stimulus or relief legislation will have no impact on helping improve the economy.      In writing the above two paragraphs, I have most likely irritated everyone. People will post strong and emotional statements trying to correct me and get me to see the light. It is inevitable.  
     Both channels emphasize the seriousness of what is going on and rightfully acknowledging the dedication and work of the health care professional care professionals on the front line.
     There have been reports on the dire circumstances in Italy. No one has reported on South Korea and, even more so, Iran which may be even worse.  I wonder if the pandemic has reached North Korea and, if so, what is the impact there.
     I reiterate, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Are we doing the right thing? I think we are. But, this is uncharted territory. We might have to make restrictions more severe or get back to “normal” faster depending how things unfold. We will come out of this, but we will be in a recession and likely a depression. When we emerge e-commerce and remote working will have gained ground. Some businesses will be stronger, some will have to declare bankruptcy.
     I can only watch one of these for maybe ten or fifteen minutes at a time before having to change the channel. I get it, both broadcast 24/7 and need to fill all of that time with content. Watching this all the time, in home isolation, can only make one feel down and depressed. Many of will respond to this saying, they have stopped watching the news altogether and doing other things that help make for a more positive state of mind through this unprecedented imposed lifestyle change. I detest the politicization of this crisis no matter which side does it… and both are doing it.
     One perspective that I try to maintain is that I am comfortable in my home where heat, electricity, cable, internet, and phone are all working. We have plenty of food. While any or all of this can change, I have to be thankful for this. People are fighting for their lives from this disease. In the past, people have been displaced, lost everything, or been killed due to man’s inhumanity to man. This is a war for sure, but not as grim as a real war.
     Woulda, shoulda, coulda? We can all be Monday morning quarterbacks and point fingers. Before the crisis contingency planning is an iffy exercise at best. Most of the time, leaders and organizations don’t want to invest tons of money to be ready for what was deemed as a low probability event. When the low probability event hits, we find ourselves unprepared. It takes some time to refocus resources, research, and manufacturing to react to the crisis. There is strong evidence that is happening. We will figure out how to ration if needed or more likely to regulate and meter who can go out to grocery stores if that is necessary.
     Both MSNBC and Fox News are showing Governor Cuomo’s press conference. He is doing a great job of helping us keep it in perspective in terms of numbers of this virus vs. the flu and even the 1918 flu pandemic. He noted that the food and pharma supply chains still functioning, and transportation is still working. Don’t freak out and hoard groceries. Don’t make up your own facts.  I really relate and agree with his view and challenge to all of us on how to keep this all in perspective.
     Be well, stay healthy, stay home, and wash your hands… a lot.

Contagion: This is Getting Serious

     All of last week, I was feeling pretty optimistic about being home bound and moving all of our classes online. I would get to stay home, saving an hour to an hour and a half driving each day. I would be able to refine my classes by preparing video lectures, revising assignments, having online quizzes instead of written exam, and other cool technologies and offerings that would reveal themselves during this process. I would get to write every day and am resolved to recommit an exercise and healthy living regimen.
     The exuberance lasted through Friday, the 13th and continued through Saturday. We went out to try to stock-up on a few things. We had more than enough toilet paper, but a meager inventory compared to what others have been hoarding up. We expected to see bare shelves at both our local grocery store, Sunset Foods, and Costco. Certainly, there were no toilet paper. Both stores were out of paper towels, rice, bread, bleach, hand sanitizers, roasted chicken, and hard surface disinfectants. There was plenty of other food otherwise.
     Sunday the 14th dawned, I did a little work and we ran some errands. It was cold but sunny and clear. It was a lovely day. Later in the day, it turned into the kind of gray, blustry, raw day that we experience at times in March. It even snowed a bit. This weather change combined with news that more and more businesses were going to close for at least two weeks. Like in many states, our Governor ordered the closure all schools and restaurants (dine-in only). It was beginning to sink in that this “keep to ourselves” and work from home lifestyle change might last several months.
     I hit a little speed bump of depression. The rest of Sunday, I was just numb trying to contemplate the enormity of what we were facing. I was well aware that I was still working. I was pretty certain that the food supply chain would remain intact. I was sure the makers of the out of stock, hand sanitizers, bleach, and disinfectants would soon be replenishing the shelves in the stores. The hoarders would stop buying any more when they realize they have two years supply of such. Yet, I was feeling down about the months of isolation and the recession it would inevitable cause.
     By the next morning, those feelings were gone as I started went back to work in earnest. The day kicked off with a call-in meeting of our Emergency Management Team. Then I began to record lectures for the four and a half courses I am teaching. I thought it was going to be easier and less time consuming that it is actually taking. This is a cognitive bias that I am often guilty of called the Planning Fallacy. The important thing was that the doldrum was short lived and replaced with work.
     Not everyone is as lucky as me. I had to change a medical lab appointment due to a conflict with our daily Emergency Management Team meeting. I called and talked with a receptionist/scheduler. She took care of me quickly. Before ending the call, I asked if she was getting a lot of calls. She said, “It has been unreal.” I said, “This is a crazy time.” She said, “Tell me about it. I have to work two jobs to make ends meet. This job is OK, but I just lost my other job because of this Corona thing. Now, I am afraid I might lose my house. I don’t know what to do.” She seemed on the edge of defeat. I felt sorry for her and the countless others that must be in a similar predicament. I also have to note the bravery and dedication of the medical professions on the front line of fighting for this virus. These are certainly unprecedented times.
     Today, Wednesday the 18th, I read some articles that claimed China was slowly coming out of their lockdown. It has been three months and if they are truly returning to normalcy, this all seems doable if we follow their model. So, I texted my friends and former students in China. Some of them have literally not left their homes for three months. Only one person per household was allowed to go grocery shopping every third day. I do believe they controlled the passes for shopping via cell phones. There was an article in the MIT Technology Review, We’re Not Going Back to Normal. This article claims that it will take 18 months! I sure hope the China model which has actually been applied is more accurate. Either way, we have months of austerity and homebound isolation ahead of us.