Thursday, March 19, 2020

Contagion: This is Getting Serious

     All of last week, I was feeling pretty optimistic about being home bound and moving all of our classes online. I would get to stay home, saving an hour to an hour and a half driving each day. I would be able to refine my classes by preparing video lectures, revising assignments, having online quizzes instead of written exam, and other cool technologies and offerings that would reveal themselves during this process. I would get to write every day and am resolved to recommit an exercise and healthy living regimen.
     The exuberance lasted through Friday, the 13th and continued through Saturday. We went out to try to stock-up on a few things. We had more than enough toilet paper, but a meager inventory compared to what others have been hoarding up. We expected to see bare shelves at both our local grocery store, Sunset Foods, and Costco. Certainly, there were no toilet paper. Both stores were out of paper towels, rice, bread, bleach, hand sanitizers, roasted chicken, and hard surface disinfectants. There was plenty of other food otherwise.
     Sunday the 14th dawned, I did a little work and we ran some errands. It was cold but sunny and clear. It was a lovely day. Later in the day, it turned into the kind of gray, blustry, raw day that we experience at times in March. It even snowed a bit. This weather change combined with news that more and more businesses were going to close for at least two weeks. Like in many states, our Governor ordered the closure all schools and restaurants (dine-in only). It was beginning to sink in that this “keep to ourselves” and work from home lifestyle change might last several months.
     I hit a little speed bump of depression. The rest of Sunday, I was just numb trying to contemplate the enormity of what we were facing. I was well aware that I was still working. I was pretty certain that the food supply chain would remain intact. I was sure the makers of the out of stock, hand sanitizers, bleach, and disinfectants would soon be replenishing the shelves in the stores. The hoarders would stop buying any more when they realize they have two years supply of such. Yet, I was feeling down about the months of isolation and the recession it would inevitable cause.
     By the next morning, those feelings were gone as I started went back to work in earnest. The day kicked off with a call-in meeting of our Emergency Management Team. Then I began to record lectures for the four and a half courses I am teaching. I thought it was going to be easier and less time consuming that it is actually taking. This is a cognitive bias that I am often guilty of called the Planning Fallacy. The important thing was that the doldrum was short lived and replaced with work.
     Not everyone is as lucky as me. I had to change a medical lab appointment due to a conflict with our daily Emergency Management Team meeting. I called and talked with a receptionist/scheduler. She took care of me quickly. Before ending the call, I asked if she was getting a lot of calls. She said, “It has been unreal.” I said, “This is a crazy time.” She said, “Tell me about it. I have to work two jobs to make ends meet. This job is OK, but I just lost my other job because of this Corona thing. Now, I am afraid I might lose my house. I don’t know what to do.” She seemed on the edge of defeat. I felt sorry for her and the countless others that must be in a similar predicament. I also have to note the bravery and dedication of the medical professions on the front line of fighting for this virus. These are certainly unprecedented times.
     Today, Wednesday the 18th, I read some articles that claimed China was slowly coming out of their lockdown. It has been three months and if they are truly returning to normalcy, this all seems doable if we follow their model. So, I texted my friends and former students in China. Some of them have literally not left their homes for three months. Only one person per household was allowed to go grocery shopping every third day. I do believe they controlled the passes for shopping via cell phones. There was an article in the MIT Technology Review, We’re Not Going Back to Normal. This article claims that it will take 18 months! I sure hope the China model which has actually been applied is more accurate. Either way, we have months of austerity and homebound isolation ahead of us.

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