This Covid-19 is dominating the news. It is dominating social media and conversations. Even if one avoided the news, social media, and talking with people, the topic would still be top of mind. I am reminded each time I washed my hands, which I am doing with ten times the normal frequency. I am reminded every time I would think about going out to a store or restaurant and then thinking it had better not simply to avoid exposure to other people and the surfaces they might have touched.
Everybody is dealing with this in their own way and also kinda sorta in the same way. This is uncharted territory for all of us. I have been reading serious articles about this contagion in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other sources like the MIT Technology Review. I cannot pretend to understand the biochemistry. I have a better chance of understanding the statistics and business implications. I have zero comprehension as to how anyone could possibly put a political spin on this.
Probably the most impactful bit is a video which a student forwarded to me. It was a TED talk by none other than Bill Gates. The talk, The next outbreak? We’re not ready, was first posted, almost four years ago, on April 5, 2015 in reaction to the 2014 Ebola outbreak. It is eerie how Mr. Gates explained the threat and laid out a strategy to be prepared to minimize the impact of the next contagion which we are facing today. We did not listen. Hopefully, we can learn from this contagion and be better prepared moving forward.
Everyone has gotten countless emails from the CEO of this company or the President of that business that otherwise clutter or inboxes with offers every other day or so. The leaders of these businesses let us know if their operations are ceasing or under what restrictions they will operate in during this pandemic. As stated in my earlier post on the subject, one of the trade-offs we are making to mitigate this pandemic is to create a recession. Holman W. Jenkins Jr. authored an Op-Ed in the March 14th Wall Street Journal, “Covid-19 Can’t Spread if You Stay Home.” He writes, “unfortunately, a recession is part of the cure for an epidemic of communicable disease.”
It is funny, but predictable, how a change in demand influences the behavior of the suppliers. Consider the airline industry, which had been flying full flights everywhere for many years. Because the demand was greater than the supply, they were able to have stiff rules about baggage and making itinerary changes. Of course, those rules involved extra charges for baggage and making any itinerary changes. The letters from the airline CEOs have expressed their deep concern for their customers and have, surprise, surprise, suspending many of the change fees in this time of no one booking flights. My wife is invited to a wedding shower for our niece in Boston in April. We had not, as yet, booked the flight. We are uncertain if the shower will even happen because of this crisis. On a whim, we checked on flights and charges from Chicago to Boston. We were most surprised to see roundtrip fares of $51 for Basic Economy or $112 for Economy. I filled up my tank today for $1.78/gallon. These are crazy low prices and an indication how sales are in these two sectors.
There was an article in the March 14th New York Times titles, “Fear, Humor, Defiance: How the World is Reacting to Coronavirus.” In the early days, I did see some defiance from folks that simply believe the thing is overexaggerated and overblown. As school after school has gone online, sport after sport have shutdown, and business upon business has cut back their operations, that initial defiance has all but disappeared. The kind of defiance this article talks about are the isolated Italians sitting on their balconies and making music together. If one is not ailing, one can still visit via video chat at a minimum.
The balance between humor and fear is interesting as well. I vacillate between the two preferring the humor, naturally. I like that we can laugh at ourselves as we hoard toilet paper.
Laugh and enjoy the jokes, but also watch the Bill Gates TED talk, learn about the dangers of the contagion, stay home if you can, and wash your hands… a lot.
Probably the most impactful bit is a video which a student forwarded to me. It was a TED talk by none other than Bill Gates. The talk, The next outbreak? We’re not ready, was first posted, almost four years ago, on April 5, 2015 in reaction to the 2014 Ebola outbreak. It is eerie how Mr. Gates explained the threat and laid out a strategy to be prepared to minimize the impact of the next contagion which we are facing today. We did not listen. Hopefully, we can learn from this contagion and be better prepared moving forward.
Everyone has gotten countless emails from the CEO of this company or the President of that business that otherwise clutter or inboxes with offers every other day or so. The leaders of these businesses let us know if their operations are ceasing or under what restrictions they will operate in during this pandemic. As stated in my earlier post on the subject, one of the trade-offs we are making to mitigate this pandemic is to create a recession. Holman W. Jenkins Jr. authored an Op-Ed in the March 14th Wall Street Journal, “Covid-19 Can’t Spread if You Stay Home.” He writes, “unfortunately, a recession is part of the cure for an epidemic of communicable disease.”
It is funny, but predictable, how a change in demand influences the behavior of the suppliers. Consider the airline industry, which had been flying full flights everywhere for many years. Because the demand was greater than the supply, they were able to have stiff rules about baggage and making itinerary changes. Of course, those rules involved extra charges for baggage and making any itinerary changes. The letters from the airline CEOs have expressed their deep concern for their customers and have, surprise, surprise, suspending many of the change fees in this time of no one booking flights. My wife is invited to a wedding shower for our niece in Boston in April. We had not, as yet, booked the flight. We are uncertain if the shower will even happen because of this crisis. On a whim, we checked on flights and charges from Chicago to Boston. We were most surprised to see roundtrip fares of $51 for Basic Economy or $112 for Economy. I filled up my tank today for $1.78/gallon. These are crazy low prices and an indication how sales are in these two sectors.
There was an article in the March 14th New York Times titles, “Fear, Humor, Defiance: How the World is Reacting to Coronavirus.” In the early days, I did see some defiance from folks that simply believe the thing is overexaggerated and overblown. As school after school has gone online, sport after sport have shutdown, and business upon business has cut back their operations, that initial defiance has all but disappeared. The kind of defiance this article talks about are the isolated Italians sitting on their balconies and making music together. If one is not ailing, one can still visit via video chat at a minimum.
The balance between humor and fear is interesting as well. I vacillate between the two preferring the humor, naturally. I like that we can laugh at ourselves as we hoard toilet paper.
Laugh and enjoy the jokes, but also watch the Bill Gates TED talk, learn about the dangers of the contagion, stay home if you can, and wash your hands… a lot.
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