November 2010: Mid-Term Elections

On November 2^nd, we had a general election in the United States.  It is called the mid-term elections because it is the election in the middle of the presidential term.  Barack Obama was elected President two years ago in 2008 and will most likely run again in 2012.   The mid-term election is seen as a referendum by the electorate as to how the President is doing.

President Obama was easily elected in 2008.  His election was seen as a mandate not just because of his margin of victory but also because the Democrats took both the House and the Senate.  It was a big deal.

The economy crumbled in September of 2008 and most people blamed President Bush for the mess the country was in.  It was a time for a change and people voted that way.  John McCain did not really stand a chance given that the economy melted in the very month preceding the election.  He did not help his own cause by downplaying the magnitude of the free fall we experienced at that time.

I voted for Obama.  That surprises many people when I divulge this little tidbit.  Mostly, I did so because I thought we needed a change.  The Republicans had moved too right of center, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were dragging on too long, and mostly the economic mess that was due to way too much deregulation which contributed to the sub-prime disaster that mostly caused the recession. 

I thought Barack Obama was as bright a candidate as we have had since I have been voting.  He is a very good speaker.  He was the opposition and we needed a change in approach.  I did not buy into the “Change” rhetoric of his campaign that extolled change without exactly specifying what that change would be.  I voted for Barak Obama contrary to what my demographics would normally have indicated.

Shortly after the inauguration as the President, his staff, and Congress quickly got to work to stop the economic hemorrhaging, people began to grumble.  The grumbling was about this country, The United States of America, being on verge of socialism.  Indeed.   

I had several discussions with this with my friend and advisor John Surak.  He was truly concerned beyond simple TEA Party rantings that this country was moving in a socialist direction.   He also argued that when we come out of this recession we will look more like a European.  The only question being was would we look more like the UK, Italy, or Greece. 

I agreed with him on what we might look like coming out of the recession.  I believe there is a fundamental macro-economic change happening.   I agreed that the policies were more socialist in nature than we had seen the past 20 years.  I disagreed that these changes would be permanent.  I believed that the recession would be long enough and severe enough that there would be a change in the Congress in the mid-term elections moving away from and even undoing any socialist policies.  I guess I am right.  I am not sure that is a good thing.

The Not American Century?  The 20^th Century is called the American Century.  It was the century when we became the most powerful military and economic country in the world.  We took over that mantle from, I suppose, the English.  Because of the US, the Lingua Franca of the world became English instead of the old Lingua Franca, which was French.  The dollar was THE standard in the world.  Countries like Argentina and Ecuador pegged their currency exactly to the dollar.  Hollywood exported the American image and aura to the world adding to mystic and envy.  Countries sent some of their best and brightest to our colleges and universities.   We funded projects wonderful projects through our aid and horrible interventions via other agencies.

Our industrial infrastructure was spared the ravages of World War II.  As a result, our industrial prominence solidified to the point of monopoly until the Japanese economic engine rose up in the 1970s and 1980s.  In the 1980s, we thought our reign might have ended.  We staved off the Japanese until their economy imploded and stagnated in the early 1990s.

With the turn of the century, we have been worried about our century literally being over and the Asian or perhaps Chinese century beginning.  The Great Recession has raised this possibility almost as evident to practically everyone whether they vocalize it or not.  This includes me.

Why am I inclined to believe this?  I do believe that we will come out of this recession, this Great Recession, as something less than what we were when we went into it.  We have exported so much of our manufacturing base that we are essentially a service economy.  Our deficit is out of control. 

Pensions except for government positions are essentially gone.  And as so many states are near bankruptcy, we will have to deal with the elimination of these pensions next.  I will not even get into Social Security. 

Most of what I have just said is my impression.  It is my view of what I am seeing and hearing around my.  It feels real and sadly it feels like what is actually happening:  a realignment of the wealth of nations.  Of course, I thought or was led to think this way during the 1980s and early 1990s.  Then, as mentioned earlier, we were worried about Japan as we are now we are worried about China.  Only time will tell what will actually happen.

One thing that really bothers me is the growing disparity of the haves and have nots in this country.   The distribution of wealth in this country has shifted measurably in the past 50 years and not in the favor of the middle class.  To me it goes hand in hand with the evolution from being a manufacturing country to being a service economy. 

·   1976:  8.9% of income went to the Top 1% of US households.

·   2008:  the Top 1% of households was took 23.5% of income 

·   The average hourly salary was $20.06 adjusted for inflation.  In 2008?  $18.52
http://extremeinequality.org/?page_id=8

·   66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.

·   36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything to retirement savings.

·   A staggering 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-u.s.-middle-class-is-being-wiped-out-heres-the-stats-to-prove-it-520657.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,MCD,WMT,XRT,DIA

The New Normal:  There is a lot of talk about the “New Normal.”  What is meant be this?   I have seen it used when both referring to the economy and also in regards to Supply Chains.  Basically, the New Normal is simply a quick way of saying the coming out the turmoil of this Great Recession things will not be the way they were.  Things will not return to what, going into the recession, we considered normal.  That is the Old Normal.  We will come out of this crisis different,  somehow.  There will be level set change in jobs, banking regulations, government control, etc.  We will never be what we were.  There will be a, simply stated, New Normal.  To those who use this term, the New Normal is something less than the Old Normal.

I do believe we will more like a European country hopefully more like the UK, France, or better yet Germany than Greece, Italy, or Ireland.  Our expectations will be less because we have lost so much of the GDP and middle class because of the loss of our manufacturing base and the jobs that came with it.

You have read in these pages the belief that the US was the market place of the world.  Our consumption of, well, just about everything was head and shoulders above that of consumers in any other country.  With the dampening, if not erosion, of the middle class and perhaps a chronically higher rate of unemployment, a more modest and more frugal American consumer be part of the New Normal.  Not to worry, there are enough up and coming consumers in India and China to more than make up for whatever we stop buying.

This is what I feel.  This is what I believe I am seeing.  It is not based on any real analysis or econometric modeling.  I could be wrong.  It also felt this way before Reagan was elected and the economy revved up for what was essentially a twenty five year run.  Could that happen again?  Many people are counting on it.  Many more are hoping for it.  My mind is not closed to such an eventually.  I just think there the probability of returning to the Old Normal is less than 50%.

This may not all be a bad thing.  We need to get a little of our fighting spirit back.  Certainly, we absolutely should learn to live within our means.  That applies to both the government and individuals.

We have a great university infrastructure.  We should encourage the study of engineering, science, and math.  We should encourage architects of factories and meaningful new technologies and products instead of architects and engineers of sophisticated and arcane investment schemes.  We need more Apples and absolutely no more Enrons or subprime mortgage schemes.  We need to build a sustainable economy that benefits all.

The other thing I know for sure is that the world is more complicated and unpredictable.  China could implode like Japan did in the 1990s and 2000s.  There may be other disruptive technologies that would favor American industry and workers that I just do not see.

Another point to consider is that the major economies are more inter-connected and inter-dependent than ever before.  Corporations are global entities more so than ever before.  That trend will only continue.  The headquarters may be based in one country but need to have a presence in one form or another in all their major markets.   Furthermore, in our fast changing world, economic drivers force businesses to have to be agile and nimble.  Transportation continues to become more expensive.  As freight costs grow and currencies fluctuate, the definition of lowest cost source can change just as fast.

We hear in the US that China is holding down their currency in order keep the balance of trade in their favor.  If this is true, that can only last so long before there has to be a correction.  The longer they wait the more disruptive the correction will be.  Tampering always adds variation to a business or economic process.

Vacillation:  Speaking of variation in processes, this mid-term election bespeaks of it.  Every two years, it seems, there is a flip-flop in one or both of the houses in Congress.  We move left and then right, states change colors from red to blue to red to TEA.  With each election the new president believes he has a mandate from the American people (maybe not in the hanging chads of 2000).  With this mid-term election, we hear the Republicans speaking of mandate again.  All I can think of is vacillation and that is bespeaks of an unstable process oscillating between… mandates.

Under Bush there was a free market and anti-regulation movement.  It was done, in my opinion to the point where carpet-baggers ran amok and practically destroyed our financial infrastructure.  At the next minute, we are over regulating and trying to emulate certain European socialist policies.  Two years later, we have a change in Congress with the winners vowing to unravel the recently enacted health care package.  Where is the steady hand?  Where is the sensible strategic course?

Such vacillations add variation to our economic processes.  I am not even mentioning the shear waste of money and legislative energy in raveling, unraveling, and then re-doing major initiative like health care  over again.  It is a serious time and these kinds of actions do not get us to the sane national plan we need to renew and invigorate our economic engine again.

The economy imploded under eight years of Bush.  Period.  No argument.  The keys to the car were hand over to Obama and crew while it was about to fly off of a cliff.  The new administration had to act and act quick. 

Were they too socialist in nationalizing large segments of the economy?  Would we have been better off letting GM and a major bank or three go under?  If we had done that would the unemployment rate be 5 points lower or 6 points higher?

We can argue that until the next election when the mantle of power changes again.  The bottom line is that they did what they thought was best.  No one will argue that what was done was done pretty fast.  No one will argue that we have probably bottomed out.  Certainly no one should argue that recovery is so shallow that the case for the New Normal makes a lot of sense.

I am a centrist really.  I tend to listen to both sides and pick and choose what makes sense and then develop an opinion and policy that is solid and lasting.  Such policies need minor tweaks and adjustments not major overhauls.  That is either my wisdom or my naiveté. 

Extremes in terms of being too liberal or too conservative either cost too much or not enough social welfare respectively.  Extremes in terms of no regulation to over regulation lead greed to flourish or stifle growth respectively.   Having a population with way too few haves and ever increasing number of have-nots is what?  It is not a definition of a top tier economy.  Things are not always optimized at the extremes.  I think I learned that in 1970 when I first took calculus.

Appendix – Mortgages:  Let’s look at the craziness of regulation and de-regulation in terms of mortgages. 

When I was growing up, bankers wrote mortgages and then owned the paper.  The people who sold and profited from the mortgage were essentially the same entity.  The entities were usually banks.  Mostly, they sold and managed mortgages in a 10-20 mile radius of their office.  i.e. They were part of the community and had to take care in the loans they made because they counted on that income for the next 25-30 years.

In these same times there were solid, tried, and true rules of thumb for qualifying for a mortgage.  They would not grant a mortgage for any more than say 30-35% of the buyer’s cash flow or take home pay.  Why did they have this rule of thumb?  They knew this was the limit of what people could afford and still have enough money to live on.  They knew that this policy good and while it could also be altruistic, the bankers followed this rule to minimize faults on the loans that would require foreclosures.  It was a good centrist, stable, and sustainable policy.

Fast forward to the recent real estate boom before the Great Recession, things had changed a lot.  The people that sold the mortgages rarely owned the paper (held the mortgages).  The people that sold the mortgages were brokers.  All they were interested in was making sales that generated commissions for themselves.  Period.  The entities that held the mortgages rarely held them for the term of the mortgages.  With the mergers of banks, mortgages moved around a lot. 

To sell more mortgages, the rules of thumbs regarding qualification and approval went out the window.  People were allowed to go in debt up to their eyeballs with balloon mortgages and other enticements designed for people to take on debt way beyond what they can afford.  This was done by making the payments cheaper the first few years.  I know, it sounds stupid and is certainly ill advised.  It presupposes that interest rates will not substantially increases and that housing prices continued to increase. 

People need to be protected, sometimes, against themselves.  If credit is too easily come by with limits beyond what people can afford, more and more people will get into severe economic troubles.  The laws of basic economics cannot be violated without consequences no matter what a mortgage broker might say in their sales pitch.

It goes against our sense of freedom and independence, or so the argument goes, to have too much regulation.  People must have the freedom to make choices and take individual responsibility for their finances.    I do not subscribe to that entirely for two reasons. 

First, there is the need to have some regulations to protect people.  Why do we have traffic laws?  Why don’t we simply rely on the freedom and independence of individuals to make good decisions?  Because without traffic lights, stop signs, and speed limits, it would be pure chaos on the roads. 

Second, many people do not have the financial wherewithal to make the right decisions when offered bad choices.  Variable rate and balloon mortgages certainly have their place for people who understand how to use them for short periods to bridge between a purchase and a sale.  Using such financial devices to take out a mortgage larger than one can afford simply adds risk to the equation.

On top of this, secondary investments were created on mortgages.  These futures and derivatives are only understandable to a select few.  To me they are Enron-esque devices that should be severely limited simply because they are not easily understood by the common person.  I figure that if I do not understand it easily, it is by definition arcane and simply a way for a few to make money off of the confusion of others.

The biggest argument that the system is out of control and needs to be revamped is the foreclosure mess we are in.  The record keeping is a disaster and bespeaks of just how much paper was sold solely to generate commissions.  The proper record keeping necessary for sound management from a mortgager standpoint was simply not done.

We need a system where people are free to make decisions within some sane guides and guidelines.

Appendix – Foreclosures:  It is Sunday, November 28 having spent the Thanksgiving weekend at my parents’ home in Livonia, a suburb of Detroit.  I woke up this morning to retrieve the Detroit Free Press to read about the University of Michigan’s seventh loss in a row to The Ohio State University.  I guess I want to wallow in the dismal recent record.  I wanted to read about all the speculation of what would happen to Michigan’s beleaguered coach, Rich Rodriguez.  Would the University keep him for a fourth season or show him the door for taking too long to turn things around and compete with the elite teams in the nation.

Instead of getting to the sports section as I was amazed at how thick the newspaper was.  In this day and age of shrinking readership, shrinking advertising, and hence shrinking newspapers, I was kind of surprised to see such a thick fat Sunday newspaper.  I wondered why?  Was it Christmas advertisements?  No.  It was something different.

It was instead an extra eight sections of the newspaper totaling 142 pages of what looked like want ads. It was not want ads.  It was the 2011 Notice of Forfeited Property Subject to Foreclosure.  It was a paid supplement to the Detroit
Free Press from Raymond J. Wojtowicz, Wayne County Treasurer (www.treasurer.waynecounter.com).   The supplement will be repeated on December 5^th and December 11^th as well. 

Wayne County is the county of the City of Detroit and the eastern, western, and southern suburbs of the city.  One would expect a large number of foreclosures here in one of the most depressed areas in the United States.  I was shocked to look at 142 pages of foreclosures.  I noticed 9 in the 14000 block of Strathmoor, the street we lived on in Detroit.  Amazing.  Depressing. 

I then read the finer print of the first page of this massive listing.  These 142 pages only include foreclosures due to lack of property tax payment.  Wow. It is even worse.  I shudder to speculate how many pages the list would have been if they had included all foreclosures.

On the front page, there is information on how to and criteria for applying of financial hardship consideration.  There was information on payment plans.  I wondered how many of the poor and disenfranchised actually get and read the paper.

It depressed me.  It made me appreciate the magnitude of the job Detroit Mayor Dave Bing is facing.  It made me sad for my hometown of Detroit.  It made me wonder about the recovery and the prospect for real estate going forward.

Buried Armenian Treasure

Ayse Gunaysu wrote a piece published in the Armenian Weekly on October 2, 2010 titled “Akhtamar:  A Paradise Lost.”  It was a touching piece well worth reading.  Like many articles about the Genocide it was bittersweet, both heart warming and heavy hearted at the same time. http://www.armenianweekly.com/2010/10/02/gunaysu-akhtamar-a-lost-paradise/

A part that was a heavy hearted and irksome to me was when Ayse related an encounter where a “Turkish gentlemen” wanted to hear the story of an older Armenian lady visiting Van.  The man presented himself as an academic and seemed genuinely interested in the story of the lady’s grandmother and the village she was from around Van.  It was emotional for the lady to relate the story.  At the very end, the man asked if the lady knew if her family had buried any gold and offered to help find it and they would split the bounty.

I am kind of amazed that Turks and Kurds today still harbor the belief that there is Armenian gold in “them thar hills.”  Really?  WTF, as the kids would say.

I know that the Gavoor side of my family buried treasures.  My Great-Uncle Rouben related the story to me.  He was just a young boy, maybe five but less than ten years old.  His mother, Maryam, told him one day they had to go into their fields and bury treasure to keep it from the Turks.  Great-grandma Maryam knew bad times were coming.  Uncle Rouben said they did just that.

What was this treasure?  What was the value?  Could I be rich?  Should I set out on a quest, buy Indiana Jones clothes and go to Kharpert to find that field in the village of Keserig?

The treasure was books.  They buried my Grandfather Aram’s school books.  He had gone to Yeprad College and studying a program of liberal arts:  French, mathematics, history, science, and philosophy.   Why did they bury his school books?  Maryam knew these books would have identified her son as an educated man and thus would have made him a marked man and put the family in jeopardy.   She was unaware as to the extent of what was being planned.

This treasure of ours can stay buried.   The legacy has been transmitted to us all.  My Mother, Aram’s daughter in-law, made sure that I knew the value of books and education.  She evoked the living example of Uncle Rouben and the memory of my Grandfather in her steadfast encouragement to value education.  I, along with my wife Judy, did the same to our children Aram and Armené to the point that we all teach.  Armené teaches second grade at the Hovsepian School in Pasadena, Aram teaches at George Washington Law School in DC, Judy teaches at the School of St. Mary here in Chicagoland, and I teach at the College of Lake County.  The books, their treasure, were indeed buried but Rouben and Aram brought the seeds with them in their hearts and souls, planted them, and they bloom anew. 

Yet, this tale of Asye’s got me thinking.  I once had a plan involving this belief of hidden gold.  I shelved the plan simply because I thought no one would actually take the plan seriously.  The Turkish government got the real bulk of Armenian gold and some used it to found the Republic and seed the businesses that are now the conglomerates that drive the economy of Turkey.  So, who really is out there looking for buried treasure, pieces of eight, yarrrr?

Apparently, there are still people that believe it.  We, as Armenians, should take advantage of this and have some fun with it.  Advantage?  Fun?

Let me explain.

We spend time writing congressmen, senators, and Presidents letters to get the US to recognize the genocide.  It is good, necessary, and serious work.  We should never ever stop until we get the truth recognized.  It is a noble cause.

But, on the other hand, why can’t we have a little fun and play havoc with the Turks.  We should take advantage of their belief that Armenian gold, jewelry, and who knows what else is buried all over our historic homeland.  Let’s play into that.  Let’s start writing letters to mayors, imams, school principals, and chambers of commerce in the municipalities that are now where our villages were.

Let’s state in our letters that our grandparents told us where their family had buried their family treasure.    We could say that while our parents and grandparents were leery of dealing with Turks, our generation is more open and modern.  We believe that the people of the Republic of Turkey are the same and, really, want to be friends with Armenians in Diaspora.  Turkey, after all, is an ally of the United States.  Would they help us find our gold?  Our treasures?   I believe that is all we have to do.  Enough greedy people would act on such information.

We could provide hand drawn maps of the village labeling the homes:  One Kor Zaven’s, another Gevorg Bey, etc.  We have to play it up.  Many families did not have last names in the late Ottoman empire but rather went by trade, profession, or the name of a significant family member.  The maps only have to look old because we will only be sending photo copies of the maps or even pdfs.  I can see this being an email campaign.   We can do it all from the confines of our homes half way around the world.

We would have to involve the whole community.  We need our historians to help us with the fake maps.  Speaking of taking advantage of technology, we could use Google Earth to pinpoint the location of villages.  We then, and here is the sly and clever part, create our fictitious maps to lead folks to locations where schools, municipal buildings, and even mosques built after they unceremoniously kicked us out of what is now their country.  If we do this right, we could have them digging holes in school floors and maybe toppling over a minaret or two looking for gold.  It is a deliciously intriguing idea.  Who says all Hai Tahd has to be serious?  Why can’t some of it be fun?  Why can’t it be fun, devilish, and educational?

How could this in any way be educational?  I am glad you asked.  We could have Armenian School children draw the maps.  It could be a political activism, geography, history, and art project all rolled into one.  It would force families to study where their ancestors came from, what the villages looked like then, and create believable hand drawn maps of those places.   We could have a contest.  Whoever’s map create the most damage to a Turkish municipal building would receive a prize!   Imagine if we make the front page of Hurriyet with showing a photo of a toppled statue of Ataturk in some village because one of our maps.  What a great image and a bit of revenge.

Basically, we use the greed of a few to create a little havoc and destruction in Turkey.  All we did was supply some realistic maps and some rough valuation of the treasure.  Oops.  So sorry.  Our bad.  Any damage and havoc would come from the greed and stupidity of their own citizens.

My original plan was to have every Armenian we know write letters to various newspapers, mayors, etc. as a April 24^th commemoration.

Maybe if all of Turkey is flooded with emails, they might catch on.  Perhaps we have to consider doing this face to face.  Maybe we have to send a tourist or two.  I believe like in Ayse Gunaysu’s article we use little old ladies.  The Turks who prey on such would easily believe they are duping the poor old ladies out of their fortunes and begin to dig up the countryside, doing damage to schools, banks, what the heck maybe even a dam!  

Could you imagine if we could convince the unscrupulous that the famous family of Balyan architects actually buried a portion of their wealth under the minarets of the Sultan’s mosque at Dolmabahce Palace?   Could you imagine the furor created over having a gang of Turkish criminals digging under the minarets maybe to the point of toppling looking for gold that isn’t there?  How can we pass on such a delicious idea?

Maybe this is just the project that could unite all our varied and disparate parties and clubs.  Maybe this is what we need to make us one united people!

OK… now I am really dreaming.

iPad, Nook, Kindle, or Wait Some More?

Yesterday, November 19, 2010, I went to Barnes & Noble in nearby Lincolnshire.   I want to go there and get a book by David Allen called Getting Things Done.  There is a real following around Allen’s method of organization and planning.  You can Google Getting Things Done or just GTD as it is referred to by adherents.  I would expound more but GTD is a topic for a future piece.  Plus, the book I was looking for was out of stock.

Upon walking into the store and before learning they did not have the GTD book in stock, I stopped to look at the Barnes and Noble net pad reader that they call the Nook.  I had heard of the Nook but I had not heard great things about it.  It was a late entry, a me too, well behind Amazon’s Kindle product.  It became a third tier product when Apple unleashed their instantly popular and market leading iPad.

My business partner, my primary client, a close friend, and my niece Melanie were among the first on their block to get iPads.  In short they love them and use them in lieu of laptops for surfing, light email, playing games, and even a very expensive calculator.  My partner, Ara, uses it to demonstrate our software product DemandCaster and for other power point presentations.  Oddly, when I asked all them if they read books, magazines, or news papers, they all said no.

I know the Kindle and the Nook were both designed as monochrome display e-readers first.  They had internet WiFi and then 3G capability only to facilitate the selling and download of books to these devices.  In the third generation of the Kindle and the second generation of the Nook, the price is basically an impulse purchase.  The Kindle is $139 for the WiFi version and $189 for the 3G version.  The Nook is $250 and is only available in WiFi not 3G.   The new Nook has a color screen whereas the Kindle is still only available in monochrome.

When I was looking at the nook in the Barnes and Noble store yesterday an engaging salesperson, Mitchell, came over to extol the virtues of the new Nook.  He was very helpful.  I almost walked out with one.   He took the time and enthusiastically showed me all the features of the new device.   I had never experienced such sales pressure in a Barnes and Noble store.  I am not complaining, I am actually glad that Mitchell took the time to show me the features of the new generation Nook.  I just was not used to any kind of sales pitch in Barnes and Noble where the ambiance has always been more come in, browse, read, buy a cup of coffee, and maybe leave with some books, music, and magazines.

In considering getting a netpad device, I was only considering the iPad or the Kindle.   The only consideration was price.  Did I want to pay $650 for the iPad and have color and full web access?  Or did I want to spend $189 for a book reader.    The iPad, for 3G requires another monthly payment of what $20.   I really do not want another monthly cable/internet/cellphone kind of payment?  No.  It is becoming like a car payment.  Maybe if there is no WiFi and I really need to access the web for something, I will just use my cell phone.  

I really like the Nook.  It is affordable and beyond basic book reading capabilities, it is color, can surf the web, and I could use if for light email.  While it has a smaller screen, I am never that far from my work desktop or my own laptop which I would use for more serious writing such as this posting.

The Kindle is still the most affordable but is strictly a book, newspaper, and magazine reader.  Everyone that I have ever seen reading from one simply loves it.  As I mentioned above, everyone that has an iPad also likes their device.

I understand there are a slew of other devices about to hit the market.  Verizon has just launched an Android netpad with the 7” screen.  It is the same price as the iPad.  There is some value in going to the Android OS since our company email and my phone are both Google/Android based.  But, this is a smaller consideration since I would simply access my various gmail accounts and Google docs via the internet… er… cloud… whatever it is all evolving towards.

Usually with new technology, I wait.  I am not the first guy on the block to go out and get the latest and greatest gizmo.   I wait to see what others buy and use the technology.  I don’t buy the first product out of the shoot.  I wait to see how competitors react.  I wait because I know that either the prices will drop or the capabilities offered at the same price will increase.  In short, I wait. It is funny because the first users of the Kindle, switched to the third generation Kindle, and some even switched or added an iPad to their inventory of electronic/computing gadgets. 

Here is a great article on cnet.com that explores the dimensions of the e-readers.  It was very helpful as I learned the new Nook is Android based.  http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20009738-1.html.  I should have just listened to Mitchell last night and just bought one.

So, feel free to weigh in here:

• Do you have a netpad?  Which one?  Do you love it?
• If you do not have one, are you planning on getting one?
• Do you read books and magazines on your device?  I especially want to hear from iPad users on this one.
• How is the touch screen typing?  Do you text and type short emails?  Or do you do real work?

Winning the Lottery

     As you may know, I was part of the large wave of folks put out of work by the recession that began in September 2008. My case was not really due to the recession but more the result of a new Division President coming in and wanting his own people managing the subsidiary we were running. Being let go in October 2008? The timing was just horrible.
     Being part of the working disenfranchised in the worst recession in US history since the Great Depression was quite an experience. People would often inquire as to how things were going. They would ask about leads, if it were tough, and, more than you might think, what kind of job I might want. When asked what I wanted in my next move, I always joked with friends.

I want my next career move to be: Lottery Winner
Of course, I realize that one must actually buy tickets to have any chance of realizing that ambition.

     We would then have a good laugh and move on to other subjects.
     On November 4th, I read an interesting and most heartwarming article on Yahoo News, Nicest Canadian couple in world dole out lottery winnings http://yhoo.it/bwbODz. The article related the story about a Nova Scotia couple Allen and Violet Large. In July of this year, they won $11.2 Million Canadian in the lottery. Since then they have given almost all of it way. They gave money to their family, a wide variety of charities in Nova Scotia, and kept 2% or about $225,000 for a rainy day.
     Why didn’t they keep the money, spend it on themselves, luxuries, live it up, and travel the world? That is what the vast majority think of, including yours truly, when we contemplate what we would do if we hit it big.
     For Allen and Violet, the answer was easy. They seem to be simple people and very well centered on what is important to them: each other and the life they have built. Allen worked as a welder and Violet in retail. They are retired and quite comfortable in the home and surroundings. They never had further ambitions and see no reason why such a large windfall of funds should influence their lifestyle and priorities at this stage of their lives.
     The article pointed out that Violet is suffering from cancer and was having chemotherapy treatments when they won the prize. This may explain their largess in part. But, I see the glass as completely full simply due to what they said:

"What you've never had, you never miss."

"We're not travelers anyway. We live in the country and we're proud of it. Money can't buy you health or happiness."

      This story hit me in a way that made me think, take assessment of my priorities, and question my values. That is a good thing for anyone to do. It is not unlike when a close friend or loved one passes on and their funeral gives us time to reflect on their lives, our own mortality, and how we might change and live better moving forward.

     Part of lottery winning fantasy was about what the money would free me to do. It would first and foremost free me from having to work for anyone... ever again. When I was working in New York and reporting to a particularly parochial egomaniac, the fantasy included quitting work. But, I did not want to quit abruptly and leave the people that I liked high and dry so I would stick it those I didn’t like by telling them “Oh, I won’t be in tomorrow but I have hired Peter Drucker to come in hold down the fort.” If not Peter Drucker, I would use the names of Michael Hammer, Michael Porter, Joe Juran, Tom Peters, or whoever the guru of the moment was. I liked that fantasy. On particularly bad days, that in actuality were few and far between, I really liked that fantasy.
      How else did I envision spending my fantasy winnings? I would pay off the mortgages of everyone in my family and my wife’s family. I would pay off all debts, buy a sports car, and put on a screen porch. I would buy a place in Armenia and maybe somewhere on the ocean (I hear Mystic, CT or Cape Cod beckoning). This is the easy part. The harder part is then what? Play golf? Actually, learn to play golf? Travel? Climb mountains? What?
     After all my talk over the past few years about wanting to be a lottery winner, the article about this humble and noble couple in Nova Scotia made me really ask what I would do and what is important to me? Paying off any debt I have would certainly be a good use of winnings. Doing the same for close family is even better. Everything else? I could easily live with out them as I am currently living quite well without them. None of that list is particularly compelling. Much like Allen and Violet, I am pretty happy with what I have already. There is nothing more I really need in terms of possessions. I like that I can say that. As for everything else?

"What you've never had, you never miss."

     In my heart of hearts, I would welcome the bounty of free time that seemingly unlimited funds would afford. I would use the time to bicycle more and write a lot more. I would love to cycle four to five thousand miles a year. I would blog in an organized way that would build into books. I would be a prolific blogger and cyclist. I would use the rest of the money to set up an educational trust for my grandchildren (calm down, there is nothing on the horizon at this point). Depending on the size of the lottery winning, I would set up an education foundation to support a school in Armenia and provide college educations for graduates of my elementary school, Robert Burns, in Detroit. I really liked that school.
     Maybe I should actually buy a lottery ticket...

Armenians Invented Clothes

1. Back in June of this year, the world’s oldest shoe found in Armenia - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/science/10shoe.html
2. Now, today, I just learned that the world’s oldest shirt was also found in Armenia - http://www.armenianweekly.com/2010/10/28/scientists-discover-5900-year-old-shirt-in-armenia/
3. There is only one conclusion that any Armenian can come to:  Armenians invented clothes.

Didn't we all learn in our Armenian School days that "Armenians were inventing clothing, while all other peoples were either swinging from trees or living in caves?"  Oh the folly of youth!  We just assumed that was all hyperbole.

There was even writing on the shirt, and this is astonishing, that said:

"See you at the 5899 Olympics in Armavir!"

Not only shoes and shirts... we invented athletics... clearly.

It was not until 4520, however, that Goolba the Elder from Garni invented socks... he was quoted to have said:  "The heel, darn it!  We had to find out how to sew the heel.  That was the key."

The greatest innovation in clothing was from Wardik the Magnificent of Djermuk.  He invented the first boxer shorts.  At first, these so called “wardiks” or “vardigs” in western Armenian were used simply to make pants (invented of course by Shalvar of Sunik in 4633) last longer and look better.  Wardik’s direct descendent and good friend of mine, Mardik Pambagian from Springfield, MA, always lament’s “If he had only patented his invention like his mother told him to…”

Women were not left out of the act by any means.  We are all aware from our Sunday School lessons that one Digeen San-toukht of the Ladies Auxiliary of Aragats invented toilet paper in 2877. Who can forget her famous quote, "I jus vant everyone smell better... dats all."

I believe nearby the excavations where the oldest shoe and oldest shirt were found, archeologists will find the ruins of the oldest cafe with the oldest sign that says... 

• No shoes
• No shirt
• No service 

They might even find the oldest village with the oldest haberdashery, the oldest outlet mall, and I wouldn't even be surprised if we found the oldest coffee shop.  We did invent coffee didn't we?  We most certainly invented commerce. 

Clearly, we are the cradle of all civilization. 

Oh... the mummified goat?  I am doing more research on that.

October 2010: Motivational Quotes

My December 2008 letter was titled “Inspiration Under $20.”   I find myself writing about something similar this month. 

http://thissideoffifty.blogspot.com/2009/01/december-2008-inspiration-under-20.html

Quietly, even under the radar I have noticed the increased focus and intense interest in motivational quotes.  This phenomenon is most prevalent in social media.

First, we should probably go over what I mean by social media.  Social media is the term used to categorize websites and internet applications for people simply to interact with each other.  The premier and most common of the social media or synonymously, social networking, sites is Facebook.  LinkedIn and Twitter, in my mind, round out the top three social media sites.  I do not use Facebook but am active on both LinkedIn and Twitter.

LinkedIn is focused on business networking.  It is an important tool for anyone looking for a new position.  You basically put your resume on your linked in site and begin building your network which is basically inviting friends and colleagues.  People in your network are called connections.  You can search for people or companies.  When you do, LinkedIn lists your connections that either work/worked for that company or are connected to the person you are searching for. 

My LinkedIn profile can be found at:  http://www.linkedin.com/in/markgavoor

Let’s say Joe and I worked together at the XYZ Company.  I probably would remember that relationship.  But, I might have forgotten that Joe worked for ABC, Inc. a company I am interested in networking into.  LinkedIn will also point out whom in Joe’s network or the network of his connections works for has also worked for ABC.  If I am searching for a person, I will know if Joe or any of his connections are connected to the person I am searching for.  It is very cool and very effective.

LinkedIn has many other bells and whistles that are very useful.  There are groups where people of like interests, professions, alumni of the same university, and alumni of the same company can post discussion questions and jobs.  One can import their directories from Gmail and Yahoo.  LinkedIn is a great networking tool for business people.  I often call it Facebook for adults or Facebook for grown-ups.

Twitter is a different animal.  It’s value is not really intuitive.   When I first heard about twitter, it was explained as a way to share what you are doing or thinking right now in 140 characters or less.  The postings are called “tweets” and they indeed have to be 140 characters or less. 

If the 140 character figure sounds familiar, it is the same character limit on cell phone texting.   So, in another perspective, twitter is a way to broadcast texts.  Who do you broadcast texts too?  Your followers of course!  There are three classes of members from your perspective on twitter.  First, are your followers, these are users that have found or sought you ought and decided to follow you.  By following, they get all of your tweets.  The second class of twitter members is the people you are following.  These are folks you have sought out or found and decided that you would like to see their tweets.  The third class are all the remainder of the twitter members who you do not follow and who do not follow you.

This is all easy to understand and comprehend but the question is why?  Why spend time tweeting and reading tweets.  OK, it might be interesting at first to either broadcast what you are doing right now and read the same from others.  But there is a limit to how much of the following you can read or write:

• What a rough get up this morning
• It is a beautiful day.
• I am on my third cup of coffee and attacking my to-do list.
• My boss is a total jerk.
• Hey y’all going for a jog.
• Good nite

Many smart people, including one of the smartest, my partner Ara Surenian, told me that twitter was the next great business building and networking tool.  I did not see it.  But, I played with it, read about it, and will admit that I still didn’t get it.  I was not alone, many young people on the cutting edge of technology and social media in general were not getting it either.  I polled my children, nieces, nephews, students, and found that the youth who text like breathing and have forgotten more about smart phones and apps than I will ever hope to learn, just did not understand twitter.  As a result, they were not members.

So, why was I still futzing around with it?  I came to realize in reading the tweets of others that it is a way in 140 characters or less to drive traffic to your website and blogs.  It is a way to show expertise and share information… and drive traffic to your website.  The more traffic on your website, the greater the inquiries and interest which lead to new business.

What does all this have to with motivation? 

It all began on August 13, 2009 in the depths of the recession.  A rather simple question was posted in the TopLinkedIn Group of open networkers I had just joined.   The question was posted by Todd Gasparik from Orange, CA. The question was:  “What is your favorite motivational quote?”

I was the fourth person to respond.  I had a couple quotes which I shared.  Here is my full response: 

Great discussion topic!

1.  "Knowing never equals doing" - Mariah Smith
2.  "Whether You Think You Can or Can't,
      You're Right"--Henry Ford

 As I said, I was the fourth respondent.   As of 10:10 pm October 20, 2010 there have been 4,494 more postings on this discussion and an average of over 10 a day for fourteen months.  That is the most I have seen on LinkedIn. 

When it hit 100 on the next day, which to me at that time was a record, I reached out to Todd.  We became part of each other’s network and exchanged e-mails trying to figure out why this discussion took off so.  I even tried to see if I could replicate Todd’s success by posting what I thought were interesting and provocative.  On August 20, 2009, I posted a discussion question:  “Do you think the recession is over?”  I got 51 comments in two days which actually is decent but nowhere the popularity of Todd’s.  Then my discussion just stopped.

Every day more quotes come in, some of them very good, some lame, many duplicates, and duplicates attributed to different luminaries.  I copied my favorites from this discussion and others I had collected over the years, printed them all out on one sheet of paper, laminated it, and carry it in my briefcase.

In this same year while Todd’s germinal discussion was growing, a few groups dedicated solely to quotes started on LinkedIn.  I joined two of them:  Quotivate and Online Motivator.  There is a discussion in Online Motivator that asks “What is your favourite quote of all time?”  It has 47 comments in 5 months.  The same question on Quotivate has generated 2,892 responses in 6 months.

On twitter, the number of tweets containing quotes has also mushroomed.  Quotes are perfect for twitter.  Many of the best quotes are short and definitely under the requisite 140 characters.  Furthermore, most of the quotes that come my way via twitter are indeed motivational, inspirational, and sometimes funny.  There are several members on are dedicated entirely to tweeting quotes.  Some of those I follow along with their latest tweet at the time of this writing are:

• Motivational Quotes @AncientProverbs
  “Success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan.” -English proverbs
• Tom @allgreatquotes
  "A thousand words will not leave so deep an impression as one deed." - Henrik Ibsen
• Charmine Shing @profitablequote
  “To lengthen thy life, lessen thy meals.” ~ Benjamin Franklin
• Motivational Quotes @Sports_Greats
  “A true friend sees the good in everything, and brings out the best in the worst of things.” -Sasha Azevedo
• Wisdomalive @wisdomalive
  “The path to self-fulfillment is a journey, not a competition.”
• Steve Keating CSE @LeadToday
  “If you aren't fired with enthusiasm you will be fired with enthusiasm.” - Vince Lombardi
• Mark Clemens @NeverTheTwains
  “Water, taken in moderation, cannot hurt anybody.” - Mark Twain
• Tom Ziglar @TomZiglar
  “If you don't see yourself as a winner, then you cannot perform as a winner.” -  Zig Ziglar
• Great Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotes
  “You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do.”  ~ Henry Ford

This is but a quick snapshot of the offering on twitter.  Obviously, every quote tweeted is not a potential life changer.  I do not relate to all the above quotes.  I do like the Ben Franklin and Henry Ford quotes though. 

I cannot even compare them to an old German proverb I read in the past few weeks ago.  I am not sure where I actually read this quote but I wrote it in my notebook.  It could have been any of the above mentioned twitter feeds or the LinkedIn discussions.

Start sewing and God will

supply the thread.

This is just a lovely quote to me.  It applies directly to personal weakness.  I procrastinate about many different tasks and projects.  I wish that procrastination were an Olympic sport.  I could have been a gold medalist… assuming I could overcome the gravity of procrastination and actually fill out the entry forms.

This quote is similar to the Chinese proverb from Confucius: 

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

This quote does not resonate in the same way.  I know that a journey or large task must start with a single step and many additional steps must follow.  This I get.  I know how to do something like a journey.  It is a matter of either doing it or not doing it.  That is a matter of choice and self discipline.

My issue is a little different especially when the task at hand is new to me.  It does not even have to be a complicated or lengthy task.  Often, I do not how to solve the entire problem.  If I question my skills, the paralysis then sets like concrete.  Yet, if I just jump into it and take that first step and start sewing, God indeed supplies the thread.

Of course, both quotes are very similar.  They both say, just start.  The German proverb addresses my particular procrastination and paralysis.  Start sewing, God will provide the thread.  Beautiful.  It gives me the confidence I need.  The proverb resonated when I first read because it immediately made sense based on a few very recent examples in my own work.

There has to be an economic component as to why quotes are so popular.  People are worried.  They are worrying about the jobs, their savings, our country, and the future.  The Great Recession lingers longer and the recovery much more shallow than anyone wants or expected.  There is a collective feeling that when all is said and done, we will be something less than we were before.  This is referred to as the “New Normal.”  With all of this malaise, it is quite helpful to read inspirational and motivational quotes. 

When I was a schoolboy, there was a book people went to when they needed a quote.  It was Bartlett’s Familiar Quotations.  It was in every library but required more effort than most people wanted to put into it digging out quotes to use in a speech or presentation. 

With the internet, it just became easier.  There are websites dedicated to quotations that facilitate searching by author or subject.   Google “quotations” and you will find The Quotations Page, quoteland.com, the 10^th edition of John Bartlett’s book, and many more. 

Whatever the reason, there are a lot of quotations flying around these days.  They are easy to post, tweet, and re-tweet.  They are usually more eloquent than anything most people can write.  People do not have to buy a book but pick and choose those that really resonate with them. 

Not only are the quotes meaningful, inspirational, and motivating but they are mostly quoted from successful people that are well known to all.  That provides an even added punch to the value of the quote be it on the laminated card one carries, for use in presentations, or to finish off a monthly letter to friends and family.

Here are a few of my favorites:

• I run long on the road, before I dance under the lights – Muhammed Ali
• Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.   – Thomas  A. Edison
• When you are walking through hell... walk fast!! – Armenian Proverb
• A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.    – Gen. George S. Patton
• Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm. – Emerson
• You have all the time there is.
• Whether you think you can or think you can't... You're right. – Henry Ford
• I am not upset by events but rather by the way I view them. -  Epictetus
• The chief cause of failure and unhappiness is trading what we want for what we want at the moment.
• You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. – Wayne Gretzky

Review: Family of Shadows by Garin K. Hovannisian

I was in Los Angeles in the mid-1980s.  I was presenting a paper at a conference on Reliability Engineering.  We decided to make a vacation out of it, be tourists, and visit family.  The only family we had in Los Angeles at the time were the Hovannisian’s: Uncle Richard, Aunt Vartiter, Raffi, Armen, Ani, and Garo.  Richard’s maternal grandmother Sara was a first cousin to my paternal grandfather Aram.  In Armenian terms, this was relatively close relations.  We were proud to be close with them because Richard G. Hovannisian was a renown scholar, one of the first Chaired Professors of Armenian History, and author of several books focusing on the turbulent post World War I era of the short lived Republic of Armenia.
 
Raffi had married Armenouhi a few years earlier.  They had a son Garin, named for the Armenian city which is currently Erzurum, Turkey.  We happened to be there for his agra hadig and had the opportunity to attend this centuries old Armenian tradition.  Agra hadig?  On the occasion of a baby’s first tooth or agra, a meal of hadig is prepared which is a cooked wheat dish for this tradition.  The child is placed on the floor and several objects in front of the child such as a book, scissors, money, and other objects.  The first object the child touches foretells the baby’s future profession.  If a book is selected, the child will become a scholar.  Scissors would signify a tailor to be.  A hammer means a carpenter; a small shovel means farming, money a banker or businessman, gold a jeweler, and so on.  I believe traditionally there were supposed to be five set items, but over the years and more so in these modern times, the objects have changed to suit the professions of today... or those that mothers, aunts, and grandmothers think are appropriate.

The whole point of this long preamble is not simply to point out the bias of being related in reviewing Garin’s book but to point out what Garin chose at his agra hadig.  The young Garin, son of Raffi and Armenouhi, the grandson of Richard and Vartiter, chose a book.  The ladies oohed and aahed that Garin would grow up to be a literary man, a scholar, a lawyer, a historian, or any of the wondrous possibilities the choosing of a book implies.  I remember that hadig and specifically Garin’s choice more than I do the speech I gave the next day.  That is the magic of this Armenian experience.
 

Here it is some twenty five plus years later and I am reviewing Garin’s book, Family of Shadows.  I pre-ordered five copies of the book and began reading it as soon as I received it.  In short it was fascinating, engaging, and well written.  I might have read it in one sitting but for the need, at key points, to put it down and reflect on what I had just read.

The first thing I noted about the book was Garin’s candor.  Amongst Armenians, at least the Armenians I have known, image is everything.  We were taught not to air our dirty laundry in public.  This applied first and foremost to family and secondly to anything Armenian.  No matter the level of family, organizational, or national dysfunction, putting our business on the street was not something we were supposed to do.  It was a taboo.  It was something that I can still see my grandparents generation shaking their heads at and hear them admonishing such behaviors with “vays, chés, and tsuks.” So, when I read the first passage showing the shortcomings and revelations of a less than blissful marriage of his great-grandfather, my right eyebrow arched upwards.  I wondered how this candor would play in Fresno, Los Angeles, and Yerevan.

The candor however was surprisingly well done.  The flaws or shortcomings, which we all have, were stated frankly and not dwelled upon.  From his training as a journalist, Garin reported but did not dwell on or judge.  The revelations made the history and people more real.  I loved The Black Dog of Fate, but really had a feeling of “our family is better than yours" when reading it.  Garin’s candor made it easier to relate to his family as real people dealing the familial foibles we all experience.  This makes their contributions to family and nation all the more inspiring.

Regarding the Republic of Armenia, we have to remember that Garin had a front row seat to the entire existence of the Republic being Raffi Hovannisian’s son.  He saw how his father was treated by both the people and the “regime” running the country.  Many Armenians take a view of “our government right or wrong.”  The reasoning follows that we have to support it because it is the only government we have.  I have even seen a few e-mails criticizing Garin for seriously taking the government to task.  But, again, he is simply reporting the grim and gritty reality of a country run by oligarchs and a government more interested in consolidating their power and wealth than in building a viable Armenian nation.  In reality, Armenia today is no better than other third world countries.

We tend to forget the selling off of factory equipment that was the economic base of the former SSR.  We have, as a nation, downplayed the assassinations of eight opposition politicians in the Armenian Parliament.  Our country right or wrong?  Yes, our country, but Garin reminds us to insist that on and demand that the country act right and noble as many of us value our storied history and spirit.  The 1998 assassinations in Parliament are a national disgrace.  How do we forget this?  Gloss over what happened?  We need to own up to this and other dysfunctions and demand better and more from our leaders.

This book moves along deftly covering the history of the Armenian people and the Hovannisian and Kotcholosian families from the Genocide of 1915 until today in 278 engaging pages.  Garin has narrative style and soul of a novelist combined the discipline of a journalist.  Everything important is covered in just enough detail.  Nothing important was left out and no vignette was written to the point of tedium.

I feel as a reviewer, I have to provide some criticism or else I am just a distant cousin gushing over the book.  I did find some of the sentences awkward and hard to understand even after reading them several times.  This is all proofreading and editing.  Also, until the last chapter, I could see the seams of the outline in the writing.  Another ten or twenty pages could have been added to provide smoother segues and transitions.  OK… this is pretty lame and petty in terms of finding any faults, errors, or omissions.  It is that good a book to me.

The best part of the book for me was the very end; the last chapter.  The writing and message took on a most poetic and moving nature summarizing the struggle of nation and his families’ involvement in that.  Where are we going?  How will we get there?  Should we give up?  Never.  This change began when Garin noted his father listening to an old Hussenig folk song that is my absolute favorite.  To me, and apparently to Raffi at that moment, it captures the essence of what has been taken from us and what we all hope can be regained in viable and truly independent Armenia.

I cannot wait to read more from Garin Hovannisian.  I see a very promising career for this young and talented writer.  I hope that, at some point, he follows through and writes the book he hinted at:  the story of his grandmother Vartiter.

Prayers in Akhtamar & Ani

Yesterday, October 1, 2010, the Armenian Internet media was abuzz with stories about some people praying in the ruins of church in the historic city of Ani just on the Turkish side of the Turkish-Armenian border.  A few weeks ago on September 19, 2010  there was equal buzz regarding a religious service in another Armenian Church in Turkey; in this case on the island of Akhtamar in Lake Van.  That’s nice, people praying in a church.

But this was not about praying in churches really.  Both events were a mixture of politics, religion, emotion, and international relations.

The Akhtamar service was a Christian mass, an Armenian badarak.  It was the first service in the renovated 10th century Surp Khatch church on the picturesque island.  The Turkish government renovated the church and made it a museum a few years ago.  Armenians around the world were of mixed emotions.  It was good to see the church restored and preserved but sad that is was not an active functional place of worship.  The Armenian Catholicoses of Antelias and Etchmiadzin were invited to participate but decided not to because among other things there was no cross on the church.  The service proceeded with the celebrants being from Armenian Patriarchate of Istanbul.  The Patriarchate is less free or less inclined to insist on a cross being displayed on the church.  It was the first badarak held in the church in just over 95 years.

"We believe that it is very important gesture towards freedom of faith," the provincial governor, Munir Karaoglu, told the BBC.  "Also we believe that it is important to eradicate the prejudices between the Turkish and Armenian people. It could also help improve relations Turkey and Armenia."  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11366201

In Ani, it was not a badarak or any kind of Christian service.  In this case, the service was one of the ritual prayers Moselms are obligated to offer five times per day.  These prayers are called Namaz.  This service was organized by Devlet Bahceli, head of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP).  It was in homage to what Alp Aslan did in 1064 when he conquered the city of Ani.  He had the cross taken off of the cathedral and prayed there.

So, this is not just about people praying in churches.  It is diplomacy and showing the world openness and a movement toward religious tolerance by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).  It is a negation of that by the MHP.  And, I am sure there are many more nuances of gray in Turkey than black and white.  There seems to be quite a struggle in Turkey to determine what kind of country it will be moving forward.

It is not about people praying in churches.  It is about Armenians attending the service because their parents, grandparents, or great-grandparents hailed from Van and Surp Khatch is even a more special place for them than it is for other Armenians.  It is about Armenian church leaders and others who would not participate because the Turkish government had neither put a cross on Surp Khatch nor have they acknowledged the 1915 Genocide.  Note:  There were reports that a cross was erected on Surp Khatch on the same day Devlet Bahceli lead the group to Ani.  At the time of this writing, I have not seen any confirming photos.

Did I mention that Surp Khatch means Holy Cross?   Surp Khatch had no cross until yesterday.

I did mention Alp Arslan took the cross off of and then prayed in the cathedral upon conquering the ancient Armenian capital of Ani.

Can it be that both events ironically or purposely happened the same day?  There is a lot going on in Turkey.

How is this not about religion?  How is this not about two peoples with incredible overlaps in culture hating each other and small minorities trying to overcome that?  I leave that to the blah blah of scholars, historians, sociologists, and politicians.  I only know the shades of murky gray that shroud these issues.

I would love to read the sermon from the badarak in Surp Khatch.  I wonder if any sermon like words were delivered yesterday in Ani?

What would the reaction  have been if the Armenians had a service in the conquered mosque in Aghdam, Karabagh?  Would it have been as benign as the Armenian reaction to the Namaz in the Ani Cathedral?  I hardly think so.

Maybe the Turks should convert  the cathedral in Ani and any other shell of an Armenian church left in the Armenian Highlands  into mosques.  Before I am labelled a heretic by Armenians, hear me out.  Our churches have gradually disappeared as their stones have been used for less noble purposes.  As mosques, at least they would be restored and maintained.  I do not see these treasures being returned to Armenians any time soon.

Yesterday reminded me in no uncertain terms who is victor and who is vanquished in this long sad relationship of Armenians and Turks.  It explains why an email from my daughter with a link to a video of the event in Ani had the simple subject “ugh...”  It reminded me of my college friend Halim.  We discussed Armenian-Turkish issues back in the early 1980s.  One time out of complete frustration with how to appease me, he snapped and said, “if you have the power, take it back [the lands]. If you can’t shut up.”  Halim’s outburst made me think of Khrimian Hayrig’s yergateh sherep (iron ladle) speech.  

Khirimian Hayrig’s words came to mind yesterday.  Yet, I tried to take the high road and be happy someone was praying in the church.  I felt less happy when I learned it was a repeat of and re-emphasis of Alp Aslan’s act upon conquering Ani.  

So all in all, ugh, just another day of being a diasporan Armenian, a grandson of Kharpert and Shabin-Karahisar, looking for closure... Megha Asdoodzo.