The Rise in Crime

 

In the first year of the contagion, crime rates dropped due to the lockdown.  The rates of crime dropped by a large margin from mid-March 2020 to April 2020.  The rates followed the same seasonal pattern thereafter but at a lower level than the average of the previous few years.  There was a huge spike returning the rate to what was the norm in June 2020 during the social unrest related to the murder of George Floyd.

In 2020, the murder rate increased by a tad less than 30%.  It was largest increase in the murder rate since they started tracking such in the 1960s.  The murder rates have continued to increase in 2021 but at a lower rate of increase.  This is distressing news.  It seems everyone would like to see it subside.  The reasons for this and solution strategies are more a matter of debate. 

Violent crime increased in 2020 as well but at a smaller rate of 5%.  Per the graphs, we see that the violent crime rates are still lower than the peak years in he 1990s. 

There seem to be three reasons for this increase in murder rates.  First, I have read about a theory that the record number of firearm sales during the pandemic is a contributor to this.  More guns imply more people with more opportunities to use them.  6.5% of American adults which is approximately 17 million people bought guns in 2020.  By the end of 2021, 21 states do not require a permit to carry a concealed weapon.  Approximately 3 million people carry loaded weapons every day.  That number seems low to me.

A second reason is the economic and general stress caused by the pandemic.  People have had their lives and livelihoods disrupted by the pandemic.  This increases stress and shortens tempers, which are both amplified even more when accompanied by economic woes.  This could contribute to use their guns for nefarious purposes.  It must be noted that this is entirely my theory with no data to really support it. 

The third reason lies in the crosshairs of the polarization crippling this country.  I remember reading something in the days of civil unrest after the killing of George Floyd.  There was considerable talk about defunding the police.   More than one person predicted that all the focus and scrutiny on the police would result in their just backing off on taking risks that might cause further furor.  Basically, this notion was the police would less vigilant and crime would go up.   Another dimension of this is that prisoners were released in part to mitigate the spread of Covid in prison and in part of a movement to lessen of sentences and incarceration time associated with the increased scrutiny of the police and the justice system. 

Crime is likely to be an issue in the mid-term elections later this year.  There is some talk that Republicans will gain ground because of this.  I imagine the debate will be vigorous and ugly.  It will further polarize our people and politics.  We will be well served to these pendulum swings every two or four years.

The problem, as I see it, is that neither side has this solution to what is a complex problem of poverty, racism, and crime.  These are not separate problems.  It is one mega-problem and requires a change in our collective mindset and synthesis of the progressive and conservative solutions. 

I am not feeling terribly optimistic about this happening.