Contagion: Where are we? Where are We Going?

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Covid-19:  I did my first dose of the vaccine yesterday. 

As a result, I was tired enough not to want to write anything.  I am not sure if I was really tired or if was psychosomatic.  But, I went to bed early and slept very well. 

Today?  My arm is a little sore.  There are no other effects.

A graphic on the front page of the New York Times said:  U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Down, but Eclipse Spring and Summer Peaks.  I have seen the stats and cases are coming down.  This is good.  I am wondering if this is due to us vaccinating the most vulnerable?  Or maybe we are reaching enough herd immunity to make a difference?  Maybe it is just Winter, and people are keeping to themselves more?  It could be, hopefully, that the virus is just petering out (here I might just be repeating the herd immunity theory, but not being an epidemiologist, I am free to think petering out is a real thing and different from herd immunity)?  Maybe it is a combination of all of these things.

Whatever it is, we are slowly beginning to open up.  In Illinois we are allowing inside, albeit at socially distanced capacities, in restaurants and moving to open schools.  The Chicago Public Schools have been in the news nationwide in their efforts to negotiate with the teacher’s union on exactly how to do that. 

One thing is for sure, collectively, we are just weary of all this and want a return to normalcy.  People are sure hopeful and a tad upbeat that we can get the vaccine rolled out faster and get to that herd immunity. 

After Covid-19:  I read an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about the short-term future and emergence from this pandemic.

After the Covid Pandemic, a Surge in Demand for Meals, Entertainment and Vacations was about how this pandemic recession is different than other recessions.  All recessions to date have been caused by a reduction in spending on goods (think autos, appliances, homes, etc.).  This one has resulted in a dramatic reduction in services (think entertainment, travel and restaurants).  No one knows, what the rebound might look like if and when we emerge from this pandemic recession.  No one knows, because we have no experience to fall back on to make any kind of forecast in this regard.

The article suggests the demand could be very great and airfares, hotels, and vacation packages will book-up very quickly, resulting in price increases.  It sounds like something I wrote about in early December:  Another Roaring Twenties.  Their advice was to book now.  If the pandemic subsides, I am sure this will happen.  I feel the desire to get out and about in almost everyone I speak to.

The big “if” here is if the pandemic subsides?  We all certainly want it to.  The plan we have seems logical.  We fast-tracked the development of vaccines while in the meantime getting everyone to wearing masks and practice social distancing.  Then, we eventually vaccinate everyone who doesn’t believe that vaccines are some evil conspiracy.  We get herd immunity and life returns to normal… or something like that.

What could possibly go wrong with this plan?  We were on track to do just that albeit in fits and starts.

Perhaps a New Normal:  The fly in this ointment is that the darn virus is mutating.  It is in the news but, I am thinking not prevalent enough.  Do viruses ever mutate to be less harmful or more benign?  I am guessing not so much.  The mutations we hear about have higher infection rates.  We are not entirely sure if the infections will be more severe.  We are not sure if the vaccines are as effective against these mutations.  I have heard or read that Pfizer or Moderna are working on boosters for their vaccines to cover these mutations. 

Is this thing here with us for the long run like the flu?  Are we looking at having to get a second vaccine every year for Covid like we do for the flu?  Are we destined to be wearing masks in public for a longer than anyone has expected or wants?  From my perspective, these things are being discussed but only the periphery.

For the time being, I choose to look at the glass as half-full, I really have no other choice.