Saturday, January 30, 2021

Firearms and Ammunition: Supply and Demand

 

Brookings Institute

As the US entered into the pandemic, gun sales surged at a record pace. 

Historically, gun sales surge traditionally have surged when there is increased talk in the press and Congress about restricting gun sales and ownership.  Gun control buzz increases after the mass shootings for which the US, sadly, has is known for.  The largest spikes, per the Brookings Institute graph, were in January 2013 after the Sandy Hook, CT shootings, January 2016 after the San Bernardino, CA shootings, and a lesser surge after the Parkland, FL shootings in February of 2018. 

These have all been dwarfed by the spikes this year during the pandemic.  The first surge happened in March when the lockdowns first occurred.  The second bigger surge came after the murder of George Floyd and subsequent protests and lootings.  In the surge that occurred last year, there was no serious talk of gun control.  There was serious talk of defunding the police.  There was the video of the St. Louis couple brandishing guns and threatening the protesters.  There was the video of the armed protesters in the Michigan State House.

I thought about buying a firearm in 2013.  I had never considered doing so before then.  The only reason I considered it in 2013 was because there was a small probability of legistlation that might have limited gun ownership.  Basically, I was not even thinking about a gun until there was a possibility of being told I could not have one.  I didn’t buy a gun then, but I did apply for and get a State of Illinois Firearms Ownership Identification (FOID) Card.  This would give me allow me to purchase a gun and transport firearms in my car.

This March, it was a different story.  I was part of that surge.  Yes, you read that correctly.  I bought a pistol and a shotgun.

Just after the Illinois lockdown began, I was sitting in my study working.  It was about 7pm and a drizzly, sleety, raw evening in March.  It was more Winter than Spring.  I heard several loud bangs.  At first, I thought they were firecrackers.  But who would be shooting fireworks on such a dismal evening?  Then I thought it might be someone hammering loudly.  But again, who would doing such on this kind of night.  Then, I thought gunfire.  Gunfire?  I went to ask my wife if she heard, but she was on the phone.  I texted one neighbor and he said he was giving his kids a bath and heard nothing.  I texted another neighbor and she said she thought it was fireworks. 

I decided to call the non-emergency number for the Police.  I told them what I just related and said I saw no people running into the streets and no cars peeling away.  They said they would send a patrol car.  Nothing came of it thankfully.

When I was about to fall asleep, I had a mix thoughts about the gravity of the lockdown, the quite gloomy prospects we were fearing from the virus, the fact that people were already hoarding food and other supplies, and then hearing what I thought might be gunfire.  I then questioned, “what if this leads to civil unrest.”  If that happened, all I had were a pellet gun and kitchen knives.

The very next day, I decided to buy a shotgun.   I decided on a pump-action 20 gauge figuring the unique sound of the pump activation would scare off anyone who hears it.  The smaller gauge with the pump-action repeater was more controllable by a novice… namely me.  I went online.  There were practically no local brick and mortar stores.  And for the few that sold shotguns, they were sold out.  I was already too late.  I found online stores and learned what it took to buy a gun from them, and have it delivered to Illinois I did everything I was supposed to do and ordered a low end but highly rated Mossberg shotgun and 48 rounds of ammunition.

The ammunition was delivered to my house the next week, but I got not updates of the gun ever being shipped.  I waited and kept checking their website.  About a month letter I got an email informing me that due to overwhelming demand they were unable to fill my order in the foreseeable future and that they had cancelled the order and refunded my money.  A quick tour of their website showed almost anything I might want was out of stock.

I tried another website and they had inventory.  The gun I wanted was also out of stock so, I ordered something close to what I preferred.  Given the increase in demand, I also ordered a Ruger .22lr pistol and some ammunition, simply because the gun was in stock.  Within a few weeks both guns were in my possession.

Out of curiosity, I continued to monitor sites to learn all but the really expensive firearms were out of stock.  By September, guns were more available but not the full offering models that were available before the surge.  My guess is that the manufacturers produced their best sellers to try to keep up with demand with minimum changeovers.  This is the same thing that the soft drink companies did when confronted by a surge in canned drinks and sodas during the pandemic. 

About the same time guns were back in stock, I noticed that there was essentially no ammunition on the two websites.  This condition lasts to this day.  It is crazy.  Newsweek reported:

Brookings Institute
Survey responses also suggested firearms sales increased by 95 percent during the first half of this year compared to last year. NSSF estimated 5 million people purchased guns for the first time between January and July. The foundation collects ongoing data related to national firearms purchases through the Federal Bureau of Investigation's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is used to determine if
an individual is legally able to purchase or own a gun.

Everyone seems to be buying ammunition in greater disproportionally to the surge in gun sales.  The same Newsweek article reports sales in 2020 for firearms was up 72% over the previous year but ammo sales “increased by 139%.”  Who are buying all these guns and ammo?  I sure hope that this run on ammo is from not folks stocking up for nefarious purposes.

I also joined the NRA.  Ever since doing so, I have been blitzed with fundraising requests beyond the basic dues.  The hyperbole in their fundraising communications is downright concerning. 

All this said, I plan to be a responsible gun owner and truly hope the only shooting I do is while enjoying the sport of marksmanship at range near my home.

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