I am sure almost everyone agrees that politics in the US these days is very polarized. This seems to be the only thing we can agree on. When we disagree on politics, we seem to have lost any ability to ‘agree to disagree.’ Confirmation bias may well be an epidemic as many of us simply watch news sources and surround ourselves with people that share, or confirm, the same views.
We have never had more access to information than we have today. We have the internet, we have search engines, and all the major news sources are available with a few keystrokes or a voice command. We also have fringe sources that take confirmation bias to an extreme and do not want to ruin a story by sticking to closely to the truth.
My cousin David posted a graphic with the message:
Do you remember before the internet, that it was thought the cause of collective ignorance was the lack of access to information?
Well… it isn’t that.
This resonated with me, so I reposted it. All the comments basically said that it resonated with them. People that had opposite political views agreed with this statement. It helps explain why people we disagree with us can’t see the truth as we see it. It applies if you’re a progressive liberal wondering how folks can support Trump or vice-versa. The facts are there for all to see. The spun facts are also there for everyone to see. We tend to seek out the ‘facts’ that support our viewpoint, that substantiate, basically confirm what we already believe.
There is another series of recent posts that everyone resonates with in this same way. These posts define the Dunning-Kruger Effect. I had never heard of this effect until just a few weeks ago. It is classified, as is confirmation bias, as a cognitive bias. As I teach Principles of Microeconomics, I have a lecture on cognitive biases that explain the difference between Neoclassical and Behavioral Economics. The textbooks I use cover confirmation bias but not the Dunning-Kruger effect.
So, what is the Duning-Kruger Effect? Per WebMD:
The Dunning-Kruger effect happens when someone who isn't especially knowledgeable in a particular area overestimates how much they know or how good they are at an activity.
My first thought was that this effect was off the charts during the Covid Pandemic. Many of us believed we were smarter than the scientists who were working like crazy to understand the virus. This was fueled by all of us wanting black and white answers and a clear game plan for dealing with the virus to quickly get things back to ‘normal.’ The reality was much fuzzier and a lot messier as the scientists kept revising the game plan as their knowledge evolved. This was also confounded by the fact that people wanted to live their normal lifestyle and were feeling manipulated by the scientific community scaring us all about a virus we couldn’t see (almost medieval) and wanting to inject everyone with vaccine from reasons rumored as either economic gain to mind control.
Now this Dunning-Kruger Effect was being used to classify whoever doesn’t agree with us as not being ‘especially knowledge’ or, basically, ignoramuses. This seems to be another form of confirmation bias.
Do I feel manipulated by the overwhelming access to ‘information.’ Like everyone else, I do not feel manipulated. I believe I look at all sides and make up my own mind. Could I be doing exactly what ‘they’ want me to do. How would I know?
It ain’t easy being free and having access to all this information.
It might just be easier to roll a die, 1-3 = Conservative and 4-6 = Liberal, commit to one pole or the other. I wouldn’t necessarily be any happier, but I wouldn’t have to think about it so much and all my news and views would come from Fox News or MSNBC.
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