Climate Change

 

UN Report

On August 9^th, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued their 6^th Assessment Report.  New reports called it the most comprehensive report yet on climate change.  Listening to the various reports and reading the various articles about these Assessment Report conveyed that they were this 6^th report was also the most ominous one yet.

Reuters published a very concise summary of the rather lengthy UN report.  Here is the list.  The article elaborates on each:

• Humans are to blame
• Temperatures will keep rising
• Weather is getting extreme
• Arctic summers could soon be ice free
• Sea will rise no matter what
• Running out of time

This report is not a surprise to me.  It is more dire, however, than I expected. 

For years, we have been debating the idea of global warming and climate change.  We have heard the scientists and we have heard the rebuttals and refutation from basically the business community and the pseudo-science politicians.  Those that do not believe in the evidence are more concerned about the short-term.  The business world and Wall Street are overly focused on short term profit and stock price.  Buying into climate change would result in legislation that could easily raise the price of energy and automobiles which will basically raise prices across the business world.  It would impact the wealth and wealth potential of those running the large corporations.  Therefore, it is not in their best interest to believe that climate change let alone to act on it.

This view was definitely part of the platform of President Trump.  It is the “drill baby drill” of, I believe, President Bush.  We consume President Biden has challenged us to take a larger roll in the global effort to stem the output of carbon dioxide given our disproportional use of cars and gasoline.  He has gotten large companies like Amazon and GM to commit to being carbon neutral by 2035.  If they and others can do it, this, to me, marks a shift to more long-term business planning which the world sorely needs. 

IndexMundi

We consume 8,682 thousand barrels of oil per day.  China, with more than four times our population, is second with 1,908 thousand barrels.  We are the largest
consumer by a large measure.  When it comes to coal consumption, we are third behind China and India per the Statistica graphic. The average person is most likely blissfully unaware of the magnitude of these numbers and profits they generate for so many companies and their executives. 

In recent years, there has been a movement by younger generation to want to work for socially responsible corporations.  They are wanting to work and make a good life for themselves and their families.  This includes handing off a world in better shape than the one they inherited.  This was the flower power vision of the hippies and the generation gap generation.  We seemed to have failed miserably given our noble intentions.

Population growth is the major factor in all of this.  The world population was 3 billion in 1960 and 4 billion in 1970.  This year, the population is projected to be 7.9 billion.  The contribution of population and our dependence on energy generation and mechanized transportation, both of which barely existed before the industrial revolution, has been tough on the environment and climate.  The solutions of the crises require more long-term planning, discipline, and innovation than mankind has ever had to muster.  The big question is are we up to it?  We would have to stop bickering about whether all of this is true or not.  The 6^th Assessment Report from the UN should quell these politically and short-term focused arguments.  Hopefully, they will.

I wrote about this in 2018, Economics and Climate Change.  The gist of that piece was the very real impact of climate change on coffee production and how the world banking community was charging higher interest rates for agriculture in regions where crop yields are down due to increased temperatures.  Whether we believe or refuse to believe, the laws of economics and finance were reacting to the changes in the climate despite whatever we might believe.

Combine this news on all the impending negatives on climate change with the pandemic and it seems we are living in a time that is downright Biblical.  I hope and pray that we can unite globally to be harmonious and to work toward the long-term well-being of mankind and this planet.  I think this is the promise of the Age of Aquarius. 

 

Statistica

 

OurWorldInData

 

Afghanistan: Not with a Bang but a Whimper

Worldometers.info

     Back in 2001, the US began the war in Afghanistan.  It was a direct response to the 9-11 attacks on New York and Washington, DC by Al-Qaeda.  Intelligence determined that Al-Qaeda and their leader Osama Bin Laden were based in Afghanistan which was governed the Taliban who imposed a most strict and brutal version of Islamic Sharia law.  It was a brutal war that lasted until 2014 when the US combat mission ended there.  It was the longest war in US history. 

Since then, the US has had a troop presence there trying to make the current government and military self-reliant.  President Biden set a September deadline to move the US troops out of the country.  As a result, it appears that the Taliban, which we never defeated, is poised to take over the country again mostly likely via a civil war. 

The US has been there for two decades.  Before the US, the Soviets were there from 1979 to 1989.  From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban were in charge.  So, for the past 40 years, Afghanistan was at war or run by a brutal regime at least 29 of those years. 

2,312 US military personnel gave their lives in Afghanistan with 20,066 wounded.  239,000 combatants died in the war zones of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  Approximately 70,000 of those were civilians.  It cost the US $824 Billion for operations there 2001.  What a horrible cost for what can only be called a failure.

15,000 Soviet military were killed they sustained 35,000 wounded during their ten years there.  There was an estimated 2 million Afghanis killed.  They spent $50 billion for their war.  They were driven out of Afghanistan in what was a failure for them.

We were fond of calling the Soviet War in Afghanistan their Vietnam.  If that is true, then our war in Afghanistan was our Vietnam II. 

When we first went into Afghanistan in 2001, there was an article in, I believe, the New York Times on the history of western countries waging war in Afghanistan.  They were basically all dismal failures.  The article questioned what made us think our result would be any different.  It was brilliantly written and foretold the result we that is apparently unfolding right now.  I remember emailing a copy of the article to my cousin David.  He shared my view of the article. I never saved a copy, I could not find the email, nor did a NYT’s or google search reveal the article.  I would love to read it again today just to see if resonates as strongly as it did back then.

Were we right to go into Afghanistan to disrupt Al-Qaeda and try to capture Osama Bin Laden.  We almost got him in our first battle in Afghanistan at Tora Bora December 6-17, 2001.  He escaped and eluded us for another nine and a half years.  In the interim, we drove the Taliban out of power and tried to install a democracy which the country never fully accepted and therefore could not sustain.  We drove the Taliban from power but did not eradicate them.  Thus, they are poised to return to power in the security vacuum left by our withdrawal of our troops.

I feel bad the families that lost loved ones that served in this prolonged war.  I feel bad for those that served and lost limbs or sustained brain injuries from the guerilla war they faced there.  It has to sting more given that we did not quite succeed in our mission to oust the Taliban and transform Afghanistan into a democracy that would bring peace to this war torn country.

We are a mighty country with an amazing military capability.  We can easily overrun a country with lesser numbers or capabilities.  Our enemies melt into the population and continue the battle the only way they have any chance… a guerilla war.  We are not as good at this style of warfare that is prolonged and one of attrition.  The enemy assume that we will lose energy and interest the longer the war lasts and the more troops we lose.  I suppose they are right given where we are at today.  The price paid in terms of human life has been so grave.  It is telling that the end of this twenty-year engagement is barely a whimper but more so indifference as we inanely bicker over masking.

I am actually glad we are withdrawing, finally.  I am sad at the result and our general indifference.  Lastly, I fear we have yet to learn the lesson that would keep us from entering a Vietnam III military engagement.

Travelling Thrice Across the Country

 

Arizona

In the past two weeks, we drove to Los Angeles from Chicago and returned a week later.  Today, I am driving to Detroit to make another drive to Los Angeles.  Finally, I get to fly home. 

The reasons for all of this driving, three cross-country trips, are all good.  They involve family visits, parents visiting children and grandchildren, and minimizing exposure to the virus and the variant that is now dominating the news. 

It is 2,045 miles from our home to our destination in LA.  Denver is about halfway on the route we took there and back.  We drove about approximately 1,000 miles a day and it took 14-15 hours each day depending on the number of stops, weather, and traffic.  The drive from Detroit to LA will be 200 miles longer and thus adding another hour and a half of driving. 

This all amounts to a lot of time on the road traversing parts of Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and California.  It certainly involves driving, helping keep the driver awake, a nap here and there (when not driving and convinced that the driver is fully alert), being bored, observing the changing landscape, and thinking.  The interesting parts, needless, to say are the changing landscapes and, at least from my perspective, my thoughts.

Beginning with my thoughts, they were the thoughts that occupy my idle time.  There was just more idle time.  There were alert, weary, and bored times.  There were periods of times on my phone.   There were drowsy times during the mini-naps.  The thoughts were as varied as what I was doing and not doing.  I ran through my to-do list kinds for priorities.  That was helpful.  I reflected on the people I saw in various rest stops along the way.  I thought about the indigenous peoples of the lands we drove through… and I related that to what I would feel like driving through the Armenian Highlands.  I thought about loved ones, family and friends, that enrich my life and those whose memories continue to enrich my

Utah

life.  I wondered about what I have accomplished, might have accomplished, and could accomplish still.  I jotted some notes, some haikus, and even participated in a few zoom meetings.  There was no real order to the thinking.  It was ambling and rambling thoughts underscored by the drone of road noise.  At times, the thoughts were energizing while at other times they magnified the boredom.  I wondered what it might be like if I made drives like this every week as truck driver do versus the mere three weeks I did.

The landscape was beautiful.  Living in Chicagoland, one might forget about the vast expanses of farmland though one doesn’t have to drive far to see it.  Corn is a huge crop, followed by soybeans.  Both are processed and used, for the most part, to make other processed and packaged foods.  Corn is fed to cattle, which we also saw, that are processed into the various beef products we consume.  Silos and barns dot the landscape though they are now all metal and lack the charm of the wooden and stone ones I recall from my youth.

As we travelled west, the lush and green lands that I am used to in the Midwest and New England gave way to arid and browner landscapes of brush, smaller trees, and eventually some cacti.  Chicago and Detroit were I have spent the bulk of my time are flatlands.  In Connecticut, there were the rolling hills and mountains that gave a true third dimension to the landscapes.  In Colorado and Arizona, we saw mountains of rock and rocks (hence the name of the chain) with and without vegetation.  The interstate weaved in and around them.  We passed through many a grand canyon that were most impressive though I have, still, yet to see the actual Grand CanyonIn Utah, we saw, what I would call, buttes.  There were great expanses in Utah, Nevada, and even California that, besides the interstate, there were many miles where we saw no evidence of man which is a rare occurrence given where I spend most of my time.  There was a hundred or so mile stretch where there were not gas stations or food stops.  It required a bit more management of the gas levels than we normally as used to. 

Colorado

We did stop for gas, food, and drink as well as to stretch our legs, hit the restroom, and clean the bugs off the windshield.  At every stop, we were, for the most part, the only people wearing masks.  There was a certain sameness to the stops in terms of gas stations, minimarts, and fast food.  There is some comfort in this in terms of expectation.  However, I do miss discovery, both excitement and disappointment, of the private mom and pop food stops and gas stations that were more common when I was a kid. 

We stayed, both coming and going, in Silverthorne, Colorado.  I would have liked to have spent more time in this quaint mountain town.  The easy going, low key, vibe of the folks and one local brewery and restaurant we patronized made me want to spend more time there.  There was a great diversity of people at the various rest stops.  It would have been interesting to get to know some of them but for the lack of time and ambiance, that underscores almost all rest stops.

I have always wanted to travel and document the experience in a travelogue.  I would love to meander around this great country to see things and meet people at random.  I would like to see towns big and small, both on and off the beaten paths.  I would like to see famous and notable attraction but also to find local coffee shops, diners, and explore the history of places that aren’t remotely tourist attractions.  I would like to meet people and hear learn about their lives, ambitions, and frustrations that define the America of today.  While that sounds scary, I expect it might reaffirm my faith in people and the future of the country.  John Steinbeck did just this with his dog, Charley, in a camper in his 1960 book Travels with Charley in Search of America.  I believe that I have thought about doing this since reading Steinbeck’s book in a freshman English Composition class.

This is not a new thought.  Back in 2012, I had the notion and expressed such in three posts.  

• Annals of Relativity
• Ms. Rene
• May 2012: Rene III

I even conjectured that I could simply explore where I live.  There are so many places and people here that require neither camper nor dog to explore.  All that is need is time, desire, and a notebook.  The notebook, I have…