Contagion: A Matter of Perspective

     This morning I am watching the news on the only subject on all our minds: the Covid-19 Pandemic. I am toggling between the extremes, as I am prone to do, of MSNBC and Fox News. I am sure of one thing. The truth and best course of action is between the polar views of these two news sources.
     MSNBC caters to those that tend to look at President Trump less favorably. OK… I am trying to be too delicate here. They can’t stand him. They are still besides themselves that he somehow got elected. The talking heads talk about taking too long to react and whatever being done is not enough. One guy even suggested that people not watch the White House briefings on this pandemic and only listen to the medical professionals. They just had a panel talking about the unfairness of the money the Republican Senate is planning to deposit in each taxpayers account. They suggested that the planned distribution is unfair and leaves the lowest income brackets underserved. The went on to talk about the number of people that die daily from living in poverty and that we have never declared and fought a war on this. They went on to talk about what we need to do after this crisis passes to make things better for the poor moving forward. The current segment is now criticizing the Republican Senators that sold stock before the crisis really set in last week.
     Fox News? Well, they cater to folks more likely to vote for President Trump. OK, again, who am I kidding? The viewers of Fox love Trump. They think he is best thing that ever happened to this country. The talking heads here are also talking about this crisis being a war. They are, in contrast, giving credit to Trump and team for reacting quickly and resolutely to rev things up. They put a positive spin on what has been done and how we will get through this.  The talking heads here are talking about the economy and how this will drive us into recession and what we need to do now and afterwards to get the economic engine back to normal. One guy suggested that we are overreacting now to the detriment of the economy and this will drive us into a depression. Others commented that the stimulus or relief legislation will have no impact on helping improve the economy.      In writing the above two paragraphs, I have most likely irritated everyone. People will post strong and emotional statements trying to correct me and get me to see the light. It is inevitable.  
     Both channels emphasize the seriousness of what is going on and rightfully acknowledging the dedication and work of the health care professional care professionals on the front line.
     There have been reports on the dire circumstances in Italy. No one has reported on South Korea and, even more so, Iran which may be even worse.  I wonder if the pandemic has reached North Korea and, if so, what is the impact there.
     I reiterate, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Are we doing the right thing? I think we are. But, this is uncharted territory. We might have to make restrictions more severe or get back to “normal” faster depending how things unfold. We will come out of this, but we will be in a recession and likely a depression. When we emerge e-commerce and remote working will have gained ground. Some businesses will be stronger, some will have to declare bankruptcy.
     I can only watch one of these for maybe ten or fifteen minutes at a time before having to change the channel. I get it, both broadcast 24/7 and need to fill all of that time with content. Watching this all the time, in home isolation, can only make one feel down and depressed. Many of will respond to this saying, they have stopped watching the news altogether and doing other things that help make for a more positive state of mind through this unprecedented imposed lifestyle change. I detest the politicization of this crisis no matter which side does it… and both are doing it.
     One perspective that I try to maintain is that I am comfortable in my home where heat, electricity, cable, internet, and phone are all working. We have plenty of food. While any or all of this can change, I have to be thankful for this. People are fighting for their lives from this disease. In the past, people have been displaced, lost everything, or been killed due to man’s inhumanity to man. This is a war for sure, but not as grim as a real war.
     Woulda, shoulda, coulda? We can all be Monday morning quarterbacks and point fingers. Before the crisis contingency planning is an iffy exercise at best. Most of the time, leaders and organizations don’t want to invest tons of money to be ready for what was deemed as a low probability event. When the low probability event hits, we find ourselves unprepared. It takes some time to refocus resources, research, and manufacturing to react to the crisis. There is strong evidence that is happening. We will figure out how to ration if needed or more likely to regulate and meter who can go out to grocery stores if that is necessary.
     Both MSNBC and Fox News are showing Governor Cuomo’s press conference. He is doing a great job of helping us keep it in perspective in terms of numbers of this virus vs. the flu and even the 1918 flu pandemic. He noted that the food and pharma supply chains still functioning, and transportation is still working. Don’t freak out and hoard groceries. Don’t make up your own facts.  I really relate and agree with his view and challenge to all of us on how to keep this all in perspective.
     Be well, stay healthy, stay home, and wash your hands… a lot.

Contagion: This is Getting Serious

     All of last week, I was feeling pretty optimistic about being home bound and moving all of our classes online. I would get to stay home, saving an hour to an hour and a half driving each day. I would be able to refine my classes by preparing video lectures, revising assignments, having online quizzes instead of written exam, and other cool technologies and offerings that would reveal themselves during this process. I would get to write every day and am resolved to recommit an exercise and healthy living regimen.
     The exuberance lasted through Friday, the 13th and continued through Saturday. We went out to try to stock-up on a few things. We had more than enough toilet paper, but a meager inventory compared to what others have been hoarding up. We expected to see bare shelves at both our local grocery store, Sunset Foods, and Costco. Certainly, there were no toilet paper. Both stores were out of paper towels, rice, bread, bleach, hand sanitizers, roasted chicken, and hard surface disinfectants. There was plenty of other food otherwise.
     Sunday the 14th dawned, I did a little work and we ran some errands. It was cold but sunny and clear. It was a lovely day. Later in the day, it turned into the kind of gray, blustry, raw day that we experience at times in March. It even snowed a bit. This weather change combined with news that more and more businesses were going to close for at least two weeks. Like in many states, our Governor ordered the closure all schools and restaurants (dine-in only). It was beginning to sink in that this “keep to ourselves” and work from home lifestyle change might last several months.
     I hit a little speed bump of depression. The rest of Sunday, I was just numb trying to contemplate the enormity of what we were facing. I was well aware that I was still working. I was pretty certain that the food supply chain would remain intact. I was sure the makers of the out of stock, hand sanitizers, bleach, and disinfectants would soon be replenishing the shelves in the stores. The hoarders would stop buying any more when they realize they have two years supply of such. Yet, I was feeling down about the months of isolation and the recession it would inevitable cause.
     By the next morning, those feelings were gone as I started went back to work in earnest. The day kicked off with a call-in meeting of our Emergency Management Team. Then I began to record lectures for the four and a half courses I am teaching. I thought it was going to be easier and less time consuming that it is actually taking. This is a cognitive bias that I am often guilty of called the Planning Fallacy. The important thing was that the doldrum was short lived and replaced with work.
     Not everyone is as lucky as me. I had to change a medical lab appointment due to a conflict with our daily Emergency Management Team meeting. I called and talked with a receptionist/scheduler. She took care of me quickly. Before ending the call, I asked if she was getting a lot of calls. She said, “It has been unreal.” I said, “This is a crazy time.” She said, “Tell me about it. I have to work two jobs to make ends meet. This job is OK, but I just lost my other job because of this Corona thing. Now, I am afraid I might lose my house. I don’t know what to do.” She seemed on the edge of defeat. I felt sorry for her and the countless others that must be in a similar predicament. I also have to note the bravery and dedication of the medical professions on the front line of fighting for this virus. These are certainly unprecedented times.
     Today, Wednesday the 18th, I read some articles that claimed China was slowly coming out of their lockdown. It has been three months and if they are truly returning to normalcy, this all seems doable if we follow their model. So, I texted my friends and former students in China. Some of them have literally not left their homes for three months. Only one person per household was allowed to go grocery shopping every third day. I do believe they controlled the passes for shopping via cell phones. There was an article in the MIT Technology Review, We’re Not Going Back to Normal. This article claims that it will take 18 months! I sure hope the China model which has actually been applied is more accurate. Either way, we have months of austerity and homebound isolation ahead of us.

More Contagion

     There is no other topic.

     This Covid-19 is dominating the news. It is dominating social media and conversations. Even if one avoided the news, social media, and talking with people, the topic would still be top of mind. I am reminded each time I washed my hands, which I am doing with ten times the normal frequency. I am reminded every time I would think about going out to a store or restaurant and then thinking it had better not simply to avoid exposure to other people and the surfaces they might have touched.

     Everybody is dealing with this in their own way and also kinda sorta in the same way. This is uncharted territory for all of us. I have been reading serious articles about this contagion in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and other sources like the MIT Technology Review. I cannot pretend to understand the biochemistry. I have a better chance of understanding the statistics and business implications. I have zero comprehension as to how anyone could possibly put a political spin on this.
     Probably the most impactful bit is a video which a student forwarded to me. It was a TED talk by none other than Bill Gates. The talk, The next outbreak? We’re not ready, was first posted, almost four years ago, on April 5, 2015 in reaction to the 2014 Ebola outbreak. It is eerie how Mr. Gates explained the threat and laid out a strategy to be prepared to minimize the impact of the next contagion which we are facing today. We did not listen. Hopefully, we can learn from this contagion and be better prepared moving forward.
     Everyone has gotten countless emails from the CEO of this company or the President of that business that otherwise clutter or inboxes with offers every other day or so. The leaders of these businesses let us know if their operations are ceasing or under what restrictions they will operate in during this pandemic. As stated in my earlier post on the subject, one of the trade-offs we are making to mitigate this pandemic is to create a recession. Holman W. Jenkins Jr. authored an Op-Ed in the March 14th Wall Street Journal, “Covid-19 Can’t Spread if You Stay Home.” He writes, “unfortunately, a recession is part of the cure for an epidemic of communicable disease.”
     It is funny, but predictable, how a change in demand influences the behavior of the suppliers. Consider the airline industry, which had been flying full flights everywhere for many years. Because the demand was greater than the supply, they were able to have stiff rules about baggage and making itinerary changes. Of course, those rules involved extra charges for baggage and making any itinerary changes. The letters from the airline CEOs have expressed their deep concern for their customers and have, surprise, surprise, suspending many of the change fees in this time of no one booking flights. My wife is invited to a wedding shower for our niece in Boston in April. We had not, as yet, booked the flight. We are uncertain if the shower will even happen because of this crisis. On a whim, we checked on flights and charges from Chicago to Boston. We were most surprised to see roundtrip fares of $51 for Basic Economy or $112 for Economy. I filled up my tank today for $1.78/gallon. These are crazy low prices and an indication how sales are in these two sectors.
     There was an article in the March 14th New York Times titles, “Fear, Humor, Defiance: How the World is Reacting to Coronavirus.” In the early days, I did see some defiance from folks that simply believe the thing is overexaggerated and overblown. As school after school has gone online, sport after sport have shutdown, and business upon business has cut back their operations, that initial defiance has all but disappeared. The kind of defiance this article talks about are the isolated Italians sitting on their balconies and making music together. If one is not ailing, one can still visit via video chat at a minimum.
     The balance between humor and fear is interesting as well. I vacillate between the two preferring the humor, naturally. I like that we can laugh at ourselves as we hoard toilet paper.
     Laugh and enjoy the jokes, but also watch the Bill Gates TED talk, learn about the dangers of the contagion, stay home if you can, and wash your hands… a lot.

Contagion

     I was driving at dawn to campus the other day. I was going in for the daily meeting of the Emergency Management Team of the university. At first, we were face-to-face and now are moving online out of prudence.
     As I was driving, I saw two cars stalled in the middle of the road and two accidents. This was kind an unprecedented number. It is rare to see one car stalled these days let alone two and even rarer to see such in the middle of the road and not on the shoulder. It made me think about science fiction/disaster movies where an unknown, untreatable, and highly contagious disease spreads through the population at a rapid pace. These movie diseases progress quickly debilitating people to the point where they are dropping dead on the street or in cars, which stall or crash into other cars or objects. Seeing the two stalled cars and two accidents on the way to a meeting to determine how we would react to a contagious disease was a bit eerie.
     We are nowhere near those movie scenarios. This COVID-19 is not quite a movie virus but the various health authorities around the world are taking it seriously enough where local and national emergencies are being declared, schools and universities throughout the US are all going online to stem the spread, professional sporting events from March Madness to the Masters are either cancelled or postponed, and there is a run on toilet paper and other staples in the stores. This is unprecedented.
     The world is a smaller place due to global trade and air travel. A disease like this with a ten-day incubation can spread around the world before governments and health authorities can even decide what to do to manage the crisis. At the same time, real news and fake news about this virus spread at the speed of the internet. 

     Now we find ourselves staying at home if we can. People in healthcare, the food supply chain, and utilities need to report to keep everything running. Discretionary ventures out of our homes are minimized to the essential. I imagine e-commerce, which took a three-point bump during the recent holiday season, will jump even higher because of this.
     The economy? This pandemic has already triggered a bear market in NYSE and is likely to cause a recession. Governments are taking action to secure the wages and healthcare benefits of hourly workers who might be let go because of this. This pandemic will probably influence the US Presidential election.
   As we are just entering this period of semi-quarantine, I find myself wondering how long this will all last. No one knows. How will the powers that be decide it is over? People have plans for the summer or are still making them. We are no different. Will we be able to travel in May for two family celebrations? Will our university have a graduation in May? Many of our students have parents who already have plans to travel here from out of state and abroad. Will our various band gigs still take place? This could all play out by then. It should all play out by then. But, no one knows. If we are still in the midst of this in May, I fear the healthcare system will have been overwhelmed and things will be pretty dismal.

     We are all hoping and praying for the best.

My Library

The Photo Reid Johnson found
digitalcollections.detroitpubliclibrary.org

     It was my mother who first took me to the library.  For as long as I can remember, she instilled in me the value of education and the magic that can be found in books.  In doing so, she invoked the example and inspiration of my paternal grandfather, Aram, and his brother, Rouben.

      I am not entirely sure when she first took me to the library.  It must have been in first grade maybe second, I am not really sure.  It was circa 1960.  Back then we did not have the children’s programs that libraries seem to routinely offer these days.  We went to check out books.  The first book we ever checked-out was a Dr. Seuss title.  It might have been The Cat in the Hat which was first published in 1959.  But, if memory serves me correct, The Cat in the Hat was very popular and always out on loan.  It took several visits before were able to get it.  Over time, we must have checked-out every Dr. Suess book they had.

     The library we went to, my library, was the Monnier Branch of the Detroit Public Library.  It was on Schaefer at the corner of Grand River.  It was a grand old stone structure that may have been someone’s mansion.  Or maybe, as it was built during the time of Detroit’s breaking out as a great American city of the Industrial Revolution, it was built as a library and also a work of architectural beauty.   For example, during the same era, Cooley High School was built in an impressive Spanish Mediterranean style.  I would love to know the history of the building.
     Growing up, it was the only branch of the Detroit Public Library system that I ever went to. I just called it “the library.” To me it was just that… The Library. I am not sure if it fit my view of learning and books or if the library influenced how I viewed books and learning. In writing this, I am convinced it was me, the library, and my mother who all contributed to my view that learning is a gift and that there are great mysteries, wisdom, and insights to be revealed in the right books at the right time in one’s life.
     The Monnier Branch was a perfect complement to this view. It was from another age, it was venerable in a style that was more proletariat then royal. It had creaky wood floors that made we want to tread lightly to preserve the solemn quiet of the place. The interior was clad, in what I assume were oak shelves, paneling, desks, chairs, and counters. There was no air conditioning. It had big windows that were opened as needed. It had a very slight tinge of mustiness to make the ambiance perfect. And the library staff, the ladies, were wonderfully cast for their roles and were ever so helpful. I loved the place. I loved the space. I always felt special and at home there.

The Children's Corner
digitalcollections.detroitpubliclibrary.org

     The library was about a mile from our house.  At first my mother would drive us and would check out books for us.  We were always prompt in returning our books as the nickel per day fine for late returns would have been a huge expense.  We started with children’s books Dr. Seuss and other children’s story books.  We read all of the classics of that era.  As my reading improved, I gravitated to Henry Huggins, Mary Poppins, Enid Blyton’s adventure series, and finally Mark Twain.  It was wonderful and integral part of my early education.

     It was an important day when I was able to get a library card and check books out on my own.  I must have been in second or third grade because I had signed my card in my careful cursive style.  I was very proud to have that card and be able to borrow books.  Later, when I had my own grown-up bicycle and was allowed to ride in the streets, I used to ride my bike there to return books and check out more.  When I would ride there on my own, especially in the middle of a summer day, I was often the only person, other than staff, in the place.

     It wasn’t long before I realized that if I wanted to learn something new, the library was the perfect place to do so.  What are these atom things everyone was talking about?  They had books to help me learn that.  Who was this fellow Beethoven?  There was a book to educate me about Ludwig Van.  Once I thought I should learn history?  It was a very general notion.  So, I found a huge tome that was simply titled History.  As it turned out, the book only addressed the history of England.  It was well beyond my level and I could barely read two pages.  That experience taught me that not any book on a subject would do.  It had to be the right book at the right time to have the most impact.

     When we moved to Connecticut in 1990, one of the first things I did was go to the Wilton Public Library which, expect for having shelves of books, was nothing like my library.  I was new to Connecticut and realized I knew nothing of the history of the state.  I got a library card and took out a book on the history of Connecticut.  As I learned about the history of Michigan in the fifth grade at Burns Elementary, I sought out  a fifth-grade level book on Connecticut.  I found one and it was perfect.

     Some years ago, I tried to find information about the Monnier Branch.  There was nothing on the internet.  I went on the Detroit Public Library site and found nothing there either.  It was as if it never existed.  A few weeks ago, I posted a request on a Facebook group page, IF YOU LIVE OR GREW UP NEAR GRAND RIVER AND GREENFIELD, asking if anyone had a photo of the library.  Amazingly, my friend Reid Johnson, from the neighborhood, posted a photo from the Detroit Public Library site.  I was glad to see them embracing their history.  I hope they will eventually provide a history of the building and the person it was named for.  A web search has me believing the Monnier Library and the nearby Monnier Elementary school were named for Peter Monnier a Civil War signalman. 

Circa 1962
digitalcollections.detroitpubliclibrary.org

     The last time I was at the library was in 1967 or 1968.  I asked a librarian if they had part-time employment figuring it would be a special place to work and earn some spending money as I was about to enter high school.  She said they did not need anyone at the time but took my name and address down.  I had no expectations.  But, about a year later I got either a phone call or letter from the librarian asking if I was still interested in a job there.  My heart soared for a second and then sank.  We were just about to move from Detroit to Livonia.  It was a bittersweet moment.

     As with many places in my old neighborhood and in Detroit in general, the Monnier Branch is no longer a library.  I have no idea if the building has been repurposed, abandoned and vandalized, or just torn down.  I almost don’t want to know.  I want to remember it as was… my library.