Cryptocurrencies in Distress

 

Yahoo Finance

This is the second time, and the second time this year, I am writing about cryptocurrencies.  The first was in January:  Digital and Cryptocurrencies Going Mainstream?

These currencies are in the news a lot these days and the news is not good.  Their value is going down as investors are exiting and abandoning the sector. Cryptocurrency companies and trading platforms are cutting jobs and there is real threat of some of them shutting down or seeking bankruptcy protection.  The Wall Street Journal has an article or two every day covering this implosion.

Before reading all the articles to fathom why this is happening, I had my own theory.  In good times, many people are willing to bet on investments that are hot and growing at an impressive rate.  In cryptocurrencies, there seems to be no end to the growth.  Even if we didn’t fully understand what we were investing in, we see others making money and want to be in on it.  It is kind of a herd mentality, a kind of fear of missing out, and, most certainly, the lure of what looked like easy money.  An investment might seem too good to be true, but because the returns were real, investors pouring money into it.

In bad times or times like now, where there is a real fear of recession, the savvier investors begin to bail out these seemingly too good to be true riskier investments.  They want to preserve their gains and look for more stable and secure investments to preserve their wealth.  Historically, precious metals, mostly gold, has tended to go up in hard times.  I suppose it goes back to a time when we could look at, hold, and feel good above having gold in our possession.  It was wealth that was tangible versus just being numbers on investment report.  Note that gold prices have not increased as crypto has dived.  But, I will stand by my theory of why crypto is tanking right now.

What do others say?

Record-high inflation, fear, rising interest rates and a loss of confidence in crypto investments are all contributing to the crypto crash. Analysts say most of the factors are “macro,” which means they relate to the economy as a whole rather than any flaws in the crypto market. ~ gobankingrates.com

For many, an investment in something as volatile and unpredictable as cryptocurrency feels like a risk too great in these times.

It's unregulated and unprotected by the financial authorities, so if you're using your savings to invest in it and it loses value, or you lose access to your crypto wallet, your money has gone. ~ bbc.com  

 What makes a currency?  It is something we all take for granted.  It is a measure of wealth and buying power.  It is a measure of the relative worth of a person’s labor and livelihood.  It is an agreed common medium for engaging in commerce.  Early in emergence of specialization of labor (hunter, farmer, tinker, tailor, and such), trade and barter was how goods and services were exchanged.  Beads, stones, and eventually metal coins replaced became the medium of exchange when trade and barter became too complicated with gold and silver being the most valued coins.

I suppose gold and silver in the early days were the cryptocurrencies of those days.  Perhaps an ancestor of mine was a baffled by being offered shiny silver or gold coins for ten sheep back then as I was when I first tried to fathom bitcoin.  How could a pile of shiny coins be equal to ten head of sheep?  How could $60,000 or a few bitcoin get me a new car?  The answer to both is the same.  We buy into the medium of exchange.  We agree to this medium of exchange we call money.  Over the years, we have learned to regulate money.  Rather than carry precious metal coins around, we replaced them with paper money backed by the gold and silver reserves of the government issuing the currency.  As international commerce grew, the relative worth of government backed currencies were established based on their reserves and then be the relative output, imports, and exports of the economy of the nation. 

Part of the confusion I have with cryptocurrency is that there is nothing to back it up.  The value is purely relative to what people are willing to buy and sell them for.  There is no regulation and hence the volatility that makes it rise quickly and everyone wanting in or, like now, everyone bailing out as they see the crypto-wealth evaporating.

Will cryptocurrencies survive this downturn?  This is a good question.  We have a lot of history and experience dealing with traditional currencies.  We use that history and develop models to predict what might happen.  We do not have the same experience with cryptocurrencies.  This is the first time we are seeing what is happening right now with cryptos.  It is anyone’s guess… and I emphasize the word guess.  I believe the cryptocurrency markets will survive but agree with almost every article I have read calling for more regulation.

Annals of Quality: Autos Take a Step Backwards

 

Impressive Improvement 1999 - 2010

My cousin David recently posted an MarketWatch article:  Car quality is slipping.  He is one of my most faithful readers.  He routinely provides sound critiques that are either positive, suggestions for improvement, or simply another perspective on my take.  David did not alert me to this article.  He didn’t have to.  I am sure as he was posting it, he just assumed I would notice it, read it, and dedicate a blog post to the topic.

As readers of this blog know, I cut my career and corporate in the specific field of automotive quality.  I started working at Ford Motor Company in the mid-1970s.  My first job was as a Warranty Analyst responsible for tracking and detecting early problems on about fifteen minor subsystems of cars and light trucks.  The goal was to detect increases in defect rates before a burgeoning problem got out of hand to minimize the costs to the company and… oh yeah… to improve quality and nurture customer loyalty.   This was my job.  I took data from mainframe printouts, entered select parts into an HP precursor to the personal computer and create reports.  With today’s ERP systems, I could have probably done that reporting job in about 5 minutes and for the entire company, not my measly fifteen subsystems. 

We looked at warranty repairs from two perspectives:  1 month-in-service and 3 month-in-service data.  We reported repairs per 100 vehicles (R/100).  In their Initial Quality Study (IQS), J. D. Power looks at complaints from new vehicle customer complaints in the first 90 days, essentially 3 months-in-service, of ownership per 100 vehicles which is represented as problems per 100 vehicles (P/100 or PP100).   It must be noted that the R/100 was based on actual repairs where the PP100 is based on complaints which might not all necessitate repairs.

Per a paper, Recovering from a bad reputation: changing beliefs about the quality of U.S. autos:

In 1980, the Big Three averaged 740 defects per 100 vehicles assembled, whereas Japanese imports averaged 205. The cost to Chrysler of such defects was $274 per car (see Kwoka, 1991). By 1989, however, substantial effort to revive production techniques, labor relations, and parts procurement had been made. The result was a 78% reduction in the number of defects, to 161 per 100 vehicles.

The 1980 data seems about right to my recollection.  The defect rate was 7.4% for the US auto companies.  The defect rate dropped to 1.61% as a result of the Quality Revolution triggered by the groundbreaking NBC White Paper, If Japan Can, Why Can’t We?, which aired on June 24, 1980.  It was an incredible decade of employing sound quality engineering and quality improvement methods. 

From the graph of the J. D. Power IQS, we see that in 1999 US Brands were 177 PP100 and the imports were at 150.  By 2010, the US Brands at 108 and the Import Brands were at 109.  There seemed to finally be quality parity.  The refocusing and downsizing of the Great Recession closed the gap. 

Since then, things have crept up with the following results being reported in the MarketWatch article:

New car owners are experiencing more problems in the first 90 days of ownership than ever before… This year’s cars showed the worst overall initial quality in the study’s history… The numbers had been trending down in recent years. Last year, the industry average was 162 owner complaints per 100 vehicles. In 2020, that figure was 166.

 

This year, it was 180.

The number reported here were the consolidation of the US and Import Brands.  Surprisingly, to me as I am so removed from the industry, GM has four brands in the top 10 with Buick at #1 with 139 PP100.  There are a whopping six American brands in the top 10, two Korean, BMW, and just Lexus representing the Japanese.  Astonishingly, Toyota is #14 and Honda is #16.

 

 

I have been awfully hard on Ford and GM in this blog over the years, but I must backtrack and take my hat off to them for this performance that took decades to achieve… especially GM.

So, why is quality going in the wrong direction.  Again, not being in the industry I can only conjecture.  I think there are two factors.  First and foremost are the supply issues the industry is facing.  It is well reported that the inventory of available cars are low because of supply chain issues of parts of various types with chips being the most notable.  I am sure the supply production issues out of China due to their massive Covid lockdowns.  Other labor shortages have disrupted truck transportation due to the Great Resignation/Retirement further hampering efficient supply chain operations. 

When there are supply shortages, everyone is pushing to increase production to meet demand.  This demand ripples through the entire supply chain.  Suppliers are more likely to ship parts slightly out of specification and the manufacturers are more like to accept and use such parts.  I guess the lay term we would calling cutting corners or in this case sacrificing quality to meet demand.  It may be just this simple.

Another factor could be the complexity of cars has increased dramatically since the 1980s and 90s.  Complexity can bring more defects and more complaints.  Cars are laden with electric motors to power everything from seats and mirrors and the use of electronics in almost every subsystem have simply mushroomed.  It makes me wonder how many of the “complaints” are not being able to figure out the nuances of the navigation system or changing the clock to and from daylight savings time. 

Lastly, here is a list of from the articles of all the PP100’s by brand.  Tesla is notably missing.  The MarketWatch article noted, “Tesla did not provide complete data. It received an unofficial score of 226 based on the limited data available.”  Wow.  If this is true, the innovative maverick and darling of Wall Street until recently would be in the bottom quartile of quality.  Per an article in hotcars.com, these issues do not seem to matter to some Tesla buyers as much as one might expect:

Then there are those buyers that don’t even consider quality when shopping around for a vehicle, instead looking for what would project their desired image. Tesla fits nicely in most people’s minds because their cars are state-of-the-art, trendy, and expensive. Anyone who is image-obsessed is instantly drawn to products like Teslas, as they have a luxury vibe about them.

Even though I have not worked in the automotive industry since 1989, the subject of automotive design and quality are of great interest to me.   It will be interesting to how Toyota and Honda respond to being behind GM and Ford in quality as defined by J. D. Power’s IQS.  I am certain I will blog about this again.

4th of July: Terror in Highland Park

 

dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com

I have never written two posts in one day. 

I planned to do so this morning after I posted 4th of July Thoughts: Polarization Revisited… Again. 

We had no plans to go anywhere as we were isolating at home after testing positive.   I was watching the 1959 film, John Paul Jones, starring Robert Stack on Turner Classic Movies.  I had just been to Annapolis on Father’s Day and had the opportunity to visit the tomb of the great Revolutionary War Naval Commodore. I thought I would write about Jones and his impressive tomb at the US Naval Academy Chapel.  There is a most interesting story of when he died in 1792 in Paris.  He was buried there, and the exact location of his grave was lost in history.  A century later there was an effort to find his grave and move his remains to the US.

Well, that was my intention.  You can read that story on US Naval Academy website.

We were eating lunch and watching the next movie on TCM, Yankee Doodle Dandy, the classic 1942 film about George M. Cohan starring James Cagney.  My mother in-law called to tell us about a mass shooting at the 4^th of July Parade in Highland Park.  We immediately switched to a local news station which was already covering the story.  We were shocked that six people were killed and another twenty-four more were wounded or injured in the chaos.

We were glued to the TV for the next several hours.

Highland Park is two towns over, and it is 5.7 miles from our home to 2^nd Avenue and Central where it all took place.  Most years, we choose to go the Lake Bluff parade since it includes our town in their festivities.  We were shocked because a mass shooting occurred so close to home and on Independence Day!  It is a day to celebrate America.  It is a day to celebrate freedom.  It is a family day.  It is a day of fun, picnics, and fireworks. 

      Sadly, and tragically, it was another in a string of mass shootings and this one happened on the day we celebrate the self-evident truths that “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”  What takes precedence, these noble self-evident truths or the more open to interpretation 2^nd Amendment of the Constitution?  I side with the families of the people who were murdered today and had their unalienable rights alienated and not the gunman’s right to bear a high powered semi-automatic rifle.

And this happened, here on the North Shore, near our home.  Having it happen so close was probably inevitable given the frequency that these mass shootings take place.  People in attendance that were interviewed all said the same thing and I paraphrase.  “I never thought something like this could happen here.  There is no place that is safe these days.”  This is sadly true. 

The so-called “person of interest,” Robert E. Crimo III, grew up in Highland Park.  When they first spoke his name on the local TV coverage, I googled it.  I found his Facebook page before it disappeared.  He only had a few posts.  The most recent from one year ago was a bit eerie, “You are all sinners.”  The only other Crimo that popped up was a Bob Crimo who ran for mayor in Highland Park in the last election and lost.  I am guessing the failed mayoral candidate may be the accused gunman’s father.  None of the local TV stations or any of the online news reports mentioned this.  I imagine this will be revealed in the coming days.

They just captured Crimo.  It was less than three miles from our house at the corner of Westleigh and US 41 in Lake Forest.  This is only 3 miles from our house.  We heard the sirens going north on IL 43 which runs parallel to US 41.

It was a crazy, sad, and tragic day.  It was impressive how the health care responders and various local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies worked so effectively together to get aid to those who needed it and then identify, find, and arrest the alleged culprit.  Peace to the souls of those who perished today and our deepest sympathies to their families.

4th of July Thoughts: Polarization Revisited… Again

 

npr.org

     My distaste for US politics reached a peak on January 6, 2021 (A Day that will live in Infamy).  I basically stopped watching the news that day.  I still read the Sunday New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.  I still listen to NPR on my drives to North Park.  But I don’t, I can’t watch Fox News or MSNBC as it just causes to much angst… too much consternation.  There are a scant few people I can even discuss these items as almost everyone either has an extreme view (I’d agree with You, But…) for which there is only venomous argument.  There is also another large segment of people who have just given up trying to make sense of it, have disengaged, and just don’t want to talk about

The sentiment against Trumpist Republicans is extreme with no compromise.  The vitriol against Biden and anyone that is tolerant or supportive of him is basically the same.  The hate is palpable.  There is unbelievable and bizarre “fact checking” on both sides.  Conspiracy theories abound and no one admits to Confirmation Bias… including me. 

Some of the issues facing us are rooted in core beliefs for which compromise seems impossible.  Nothing is more visceral than the recent focus on abortion due to the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion that became a ruling that overturned Roe vs Wade.  Abortion is a fundamental, axiomatic, issue.  It is intertwined with long held religious beliefs.  It involves deciding when an embryo is considered a human life.  Is it at conception?  Is it at some point when the embryo looks human?  Do men have a say or is it the domain of the pregnant woman to decide? It is close to impossible to achieve compromise.  Impassioned people who believe that life begins at conception will never be swayed by those who fervently believe it is a woman’s right to choose.  Yet, we had abortions before Roe v Wade and will no doubt have them afterwards.  The only question is whether they are legal or illegal and the disproportionate impact on the poor.

A close second to abortion is the whole transgender issue.  It is also rooted in long held religious postulates versus new age beliefs.  Should we deny those born physically one gender but are hormonally or emotionally closer to the other gender from living the life in the gender they choose?  The debate here has painted us into a logical corner.  After years of women fighting for rights and equality, are we OK with men competing as women only to achieve more accolades?  What’s right?  What’s not?  It is not as simple as either of the extreme camps might advocate.

Consider the right to own guns.  Here is another polarizing issue.  There is a constitutional right to bear arms.  There is an epic gun violence problem.  No argument in either case.  This has been not resolved by extreme views.  It cannot be resolved by extreme views.  Of the three issues, this seems to me most easily resolved.  I believe we can preserve the spirit of the 2^nd Amendment while preventing the mass shootings our country is embarrassingly known for.

I could have easily included the racial tensions and immigration that also plague our country.  Those topics will have to be addressed in another post.

I think we need more discussion and definitely need more compromise at both the state and national levels.  Compromise is a word the is not used very often.  I wonder if our elected leaders are capable of compromise.   Some are certainly not.  They have achieved and maintain their office by refusing any compromise.  As a result, we have experienced more extreme swings to the right or left depending on which party occupies the White House and which has the majority in Congress.  Compromise is the act of thesis and antithesis to move forward with synthesis based on common truths.  The kinds of swings of policy we have expressed lately?  They are, to me, a system out of control.

As I always say, still ardently believe, we are better than this.

Çidem İnç: Driving into Van

 

I have a friend on Facebook.  His name is Stepan and he is an Armenian living in Turkey.  He is a musician.  He plays the saz and sings.  He is quite talented.  I enjoy seeing his posts, with his family, with his friends, and especially of him playing.

Stepan’s family never left or had to leave occupied Western Armenia.  He grew up there and is simultaneously Armenian and Turkish just as growing up in the US made us Armenian and American.  The main difference is that he is he is there and free to roam and enjoy the countryside and all aspects of the culture.

It is always the little things that make me realize I am in the diaspora.  On my first trip to the Republic of Armenia at a café on the first day, we ordered Cokes.  The waiter brought bottles and opened them at the table.  One of the caps flip-flopped right to where I was seated.  On the underside of the cap, written in Armenian, were the words “Grgin Portsir” or “Try Again.”  It was a stupid little product promotion thing, meaningless in any large scheme of things, but it was a reminder that I was in a place where the culture, the people, the government, and, well, everything was Armenian.  It was changing and evolving influenced by the more dominant neighbors like Russia, Iran, and even Turkey.  For good or bad, it was Armenian.  It was the perhaps the only and certainly the most Armenian place in the world.  I felt at home in the only Armenia that exists today, even though too many people oddly considered me an odar or foreigner.

On my one visit to Turkey, I was in Istanbul speaking at a conference on Supply Chain Management.  Upon arrival and just after checking in to the hotel, I walked around the neighborhood.  I saw shops that sold lokhum, Turkish delight, stacked in pyramids of every color and flavor imaginable.  I saw bakeries with fresh suboregi displayed in the windows with other boregs and breads.  I felt equally at home in the great city in a country that could have been where I was born.  I was not only considered a foreigner but also, if it were ever revealed I was Armenian, I might have also been viewed as scum.

Living as an Armenian in the diaspora, we are aware of the big things we are missing in our quest to maintain our Armenian heritage.  We are lacking and missing Armenian universities, self-determination, industries, and such that make and define a nation.  We are not living our culture fully as we might on our lands.  We are not evolving our culture as fast or vibrantly if we were in our own lands.  But, it is these little things, the everyday things, that always catch me by surprise.  These little things cause the most angst.

In a recent post, Stepan posted a video driving into or around Van.  There was a bridge with Van spelled out in neon or LED lights.  It was another one of those little moments. 

Van was a great and historic Armenian city.  First known as Tushpa, it was the capital of the Urartu Kingdom.  As the Urartu became Armenians, Tushpa became Van and a major province of greater Armenian.  It was a separate kingdom, called Vaspouragan, in the Middle Ages.  The Armenians of Van heroically defended themselves during the Genocide but suffered the same end as other Armenian cities:  massacre and exile.  Some of those who survived the exile made their way to America and many of those settled in Detroit where I grew up.  They were proud of their heritage and the Vaspouragan Society was a vibrant part of the Arnenian community

Seeing the Van displayed on the bridge reminded me that Van is no longer an Armenian city.  It is mostly a Kurdish city of a half-million people today.  There are no doubt crypto and hidden Armenians there whom I am sure that Stepan knows who they are.

Living here, it is so easy to think of the Armenian cities as they once were.  The reality is there are a scant few Armenians there and the population in any of these cities have moved on without us.  They have grown and thrived, since the Genocide.  Would we have erected the bridge?  Would we have adorned it with a sign?  We never had that chance.  But if we did it would probably read… Վան.

The More Things Change...

 

brainyquote.com

I was watching Stagecoach, John Ford’s 1939 film.  It is truly a classic film, an American classic.  It was the breakout film for John Wayne that made him a star and, well, made him the icon that stands tall.  The film also stars Clare Trevor, Andy Devine, and John Carradine.

John Ford, was a master of detail and impressive camera angles in this film.  I am no expert but this film gave me a realistic feel for that time period of the old west.  The film was made only fifty years after the fact.  I base this presumption on the notion that there were still people alive that lived through the Apache wars when this film was made.  I watched this film today, 71 years after it was made and 130 some years after the period.

When I turned on the TV today, the movie was already in progress and showing a scene in the Stagecoach on its way to Lordsburg, the town where Ringo (John Wayne) would confront the brothers that killed his father and brother.  I was just in time to see a soliloquy delivered by Berton Churchill who portrayed the thieving banker Ellsworth Henry Gatewood. 

I don't know what the government is coming to. Instead of protecting businessmen, it pokes its nose into business! Why, they're even talking now about having bank examiners. As if we bankers don't know how to run our own banks! Why, at home I have a letter from a popinjay official saying they were going to inspect my books. I have a slogan that should be blazoned on every newspaper in this country: America for the Americans! The government must not interfere with business! Reduce taxes! Our national debt is something shocking. Over one billion dollars a year! What this country needs is a businessman for president!

I was taken aback by the resonance of the speech with the conservative sentiment of today.  The world has changed in the years since this classic film was made.  Technology has dramatically changed the way we live and work.  We tend to think that changed our thinking.  Consider some of the issues facing us today.  We think we are enlightened and look at generations past as backwards as their technology. 

It made me think of some of the quotes of Mark Twain and Will Rogers and their view that also dispel this myth:

Mark Twain

• Reader, suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.
• There is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress.
• Fleas can be taught nearly anything that a Congressman can.
• Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.
• An honest man in politics shines more there than he would elsewhere.
• All Congresses and Parliaments have a kindly feeling for idiots, and a compassion for them, on account of personal experience and heredity
  
• Conservatism is the blind and fear-filled worship of dead radicals.

Will Rogers

• The man with the best job in the country is the vice-president. All he has to do is get up every morning and say, "How is the president?"
• Politics has become so expensive that it takes a lot of money even to be defeated.
• I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.
• I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.
• Diplomacy is the art of saying "Nice doggie" until you can find a rock.
• Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest our country has ever been to being even.

This does not apply just to our view government.  Poets from centuries ago and those of today are still trying to explain and make sense of romantic love and have made little progress in that regard.  We have had scholars, clerics, and theologists have trying to explain God and the universal unknowns for just as long with an equal lack of success. 

I think it is important to keep an open mind and keep things in perspective.  In closing, here are a few more quotes from the Rogers and Twain about arguing which seems so common in these polarized times.

Rogers

• A king can stand people's fighting but he can't last long if people start thinking.
• The more ignorant you are, the quicker you fight.

Twain

• Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
• Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.

Chidem Inch: Ağrı Dağı Bizim Dir

 

I saw this graphic on Facebook.  It was posted by one Rosdom Hagopian though I am not certain if Mr. Hagopian created the graphic or if it just imressed him, as it did with me, when he first saw it.

It is a simple photo of a man holding the hand of a girl pointing at Ararat, Massis big and small, the mountain of the Armenians.  Are they father and daughter?  Grandfather and granddaughter?  Either works.  Both resonated with me.

Before I even noticed the barbed wire marking the border that separates Armenia and Armenians from our mountain, I felt the dull pain and unfairness that our national mountain, a symbol of our people and nation, not being in our country.  Rather it lies in a country that hates us, committed genocide against us, and exiled those who survived.  We can visit Armenia and on clear days we can see Ararat.  This graphic, this painting, has the bittersweet impact on all Armenians.

In his post, Rosdom Hagopian added these words:

Հոն պետք է երթանք......ոչ Ռուսաստան, ոչ Եւրոպա ,ոչ Ամերիկա, ոչ Գանատա ,ոչ Աւստրալիա

Բոլորս խօսքի վարպետ ենք եւ մեր անձնական հանգիստը կը փնտրենք.......

 

We have to go there ...... not Russia, not Europe, not America, not Canada, not Australia

 

We are all masters of speech and we are looking for our personal rest ...

I think it is a sentiment many of us can relate to.  We have to go there indeed.  Actually, we should have never had to leave.  We should have been able to stay there instead of Russia, America, Europe, Canada, or Australia.  We could go back there now if it were ours once more or if we were minimally welcomed and allowed to thrive and be ourselves.  But for many of us in the diaspora we were born in America, Europe, Canada, or Australia perhaps even the 2^nd or 3^rd generation not born in our homeland.  Our hearts are rooted in Armenia, our Armenian Heritage, but our lives, families, and careers are in the countries we now call home.

Could I repatriate to Armenia?  A few families I know have.  I admire them for that.  The rest of us?  I am not sure how often or how seriously we think of doing such.  The majority of the diasporans that have repatriated to Armenia are Syrian Armenians and Armenians from Ukraine.  They moved back due to war.  Armenia, for its current instability and ever present threat from Azerbaijan and Turkey and whatever Russia’s intentions are, is a the easiest option for a more stable place to live.  Dire circumstances forces immigration.  Therefore many Armenians ended up in Russia, Europe, America, Canada, and Australia. 

I had a friend, Roger Derderian, whose mother and my maternal grandmother were from Yeghiki a village of Kharpert.  He would only return there, if he could.  He never even wanted to even visit the current Republic of Armenia.  I understood his sentiment and yearning for what his mother and my grandmother called the yergir or old country.  No one I know is actually bold and brave enough to do this, assuming Turkey, would allow such immigration. 

It would be wonderful if Ararat was part of Armenia.  It would lift our collective spirits for sure, but it unlikely to happen anytime soon.  I could see it being a part of a free and independent Kurdistan before any of Western Armenia being part of the Republic of Armenia.  Would the Kurds welcome Armenians and others back to their ancestral lands?  Perhaps.

Is Ararat ours?  Yes, it certainly is in our minds, hearts, and souls.  To the rest of the world?  Not really.  Hence the plight of the Armenians.  We do not have the military might do change our borders to what they should be.  We are currently “negotiating” the borders with Azerbaijan.  Some negotiation.  Inept leadership, lack of military planning, and the collusion of Putin and Erdogan put us in a position with practically no leverage.

A Turkish colleague once sent me a photo of Ararat in an e-mail and said:
“See, the mountain doesn’t care where it is.”   

The mountain, of course, cannot care.  It is where it is.   

But, to Armenians like Rosdom Hagopian and myself… 
Ararat is ours, Արարատը մերն է, Ağrı Dağı bizim dir.