Thoughts on Being a Professor: Part 1

 

Yesterday, December 12^th, was our December graduation at North Park University.  The fall term of 2025 is ‘officially’ over.  For professors, we still have to finish up and turn in our grades by the 17^th.   While finishing up grading assignments and then tallying up the final grades, it is also a time for reflection.  Personally, I reflect on the students in my classes this term and those who graduated yesterday.  I reflect on the excellent students and those that struggled, for any variety of reasons, to get by the skin of their teeth.

I also reflect on being a professor.  It is a profession I have always wanted to be part of.  It is a profession for which I took a circuitous path, almost a random walk, to finally realize.  I am thankful and grateful to have achieved this as the last stage of my working career. 

Beyond being appreciative, I reflect on the state of the profession, in general, and how it and higher education is being challenged and stressed in this day and age.  What are the stresses and challenges?  There are several.  First, is that we are experiencing a decline in the college age population.  This is threatening financial well-being of all schools, especially smaller colleges and universities with tight budgets and smaller endowments.

• Undergraduate enrollment has been generally falling since its peak in 2010. While there was a slight rebound in enrollment in 2023 and 2024, the structural decline in the number of potential students is a major headwind.
• The "Cliff" Arrives: Experts indicate that 2025 will mark the peak year for high school graduates in the U.S. and the beginning of the anticipated sharp drop-off in the number of applicants.
• Long-Term Outlook: The number of high school graduates is projected to decline steadily through at least 2041, with one analysis projecting a 13% drop nationwide by that year.
• Regional Variation: The decline is not uniform. The Northeast and Midwest are expected to see the steepest drops in their youth populations, while the Sun Belt and Mountain West regions may see stable or even increased numbers due to domestic migration.
• Impact on Institutions: Smaller, tuition-dependent colleges with limited endowments in affected regions are the most vulnerable, with a potential acceleration in college closures. Elite and highly selective institutions are likely to be more insulated.

Universities and colleges will close.  We have already experienced that.  This will decrease the number of professor positions in the country.  Here is a summary, selectively cut and pasted, from Gemini AI:

• Between 2008 and 2023, nearly 300 colleges and universities ceased operations. The majority of these (over 60%) were for-profit institutions, but small private non-profits are rapidly catching up.
• A model by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects that in a worst-case scenario (a sharp 15% enrollment drop), up to 80 colleges could close annually between 2025 and 2029.

Who is most at risk?

The "closure zone" is very specific. Elite universities (Ivies, major state flagships) are safe. The colleges closing almost always fit this profile:

• Small Size: Fewer than 1,000 students.
• Tuition Dependent: They rely on tuition for >80% of their revenue (they have almost no endowment).
• High Acceptance Rate: They accept >80% of applicants (meaning they cannot simply "lower standards" to get more bodies in the door).
• Rural Location: Located in rural areas in the Northeast or Midwest (e.g., Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York).

The second stress and challenge is AI.  It is what I used to generate the above summary using Google’s Gemini AI and then cut and pasted into this post.  Students are already using AI to solve problems from the sciences and business that require math.  They are writing papers and preparing discussion posts using AI.  They use AI to save time and cut corners.  From a productivity standpoint, this is admirable.  On the other hand, many students are using it blindly.  These students just enter prompts into AI and then cut and paste the output into the assignment document and turn it in… quite possibly without reading or studying the output. 

There is nothing wrong with saving time and being more productive.  It is a sign of progress.  The problem is when students just use it to click, paste, and check the box on finishing an assignment without learning anything except how to cut corners.  AI can and will eventually do this by itself in the workplace, so there will be no need for graduates with this skill. 

Thirdly, and this is related to the above, how will AI alter the teaching of classes?  Will AI takeover and require less human being professors?  I can see a learning AI platform using the Socratic method to teach students.  Of course, such a system would have to lock down ALL of one’s devices and detect eye movements indicative of checking other sources.  To me, this seems inevitable.  I asked Gemini, what percentage of reduction in professor positions might be eliminated by AI.  The response was, “There is no single consensus percentage for job loss, but major economic forecasts distinguish clearly between task automation (which is high) and job elimination (which is currently low).”  This table was also generated.

 

Between the demographic challenge and the AI challenges/opportunities, I am convinced that the number of professor positions per 1,000 college students will decrease in the coming years.  The best of the best, the skillsets for which will evolve, will be retained and their roles will change per the Gemini AI generated table below.  If I asked my colleagues how our roles will change as we use more and more AI, we would brainstorm this exact table:

 

To quote Bob Dylan, “these times they are a changin’.”  The times are always changing and evolving.  In higher education, we seem to be and an inflection point where pace of change is increasing.