Contagion: The Delta Variant

CDC

 

Life in the US is returning to the pre-pandemic norm… sort of.

As of July 1, per the CDC, 47% of the US population has been vaccinated.  By state, Vermont has the highest vaccination rate at 65.68% and Mississippi has the lowest at 29.84%.  My state, Illinois is at the average at 46.29%.  By age bracket, people 65 and older, the most vulnerable population is the most vaccinated at over 74%.

We have been talking about herd immunity and the magic vaccination number that had been bandied about since the start of the pandemic was 80%.  Yet, the 7-Day percent positivity rate is 2.22%.  Was the science off a bit?  Are the vaccines more effective than we thought?  While the overall vaccination rates were low, many they were at a higher rate where the virus was most likely to spread?  Maybe the answer is a little bit of all of these.  Science is exact eventually.  But the path to that exactness is a learning process of application and reiteration of the scientific method.  A case in point was at the very beginning of the pandemic when the experts all knew we the use of ventilators was the most promising treatment for the worst cases.  Now, we know that the use of ventilators was not effective and may have made matters worse. 

As state after state opened up in June, a lot more people are out and about after a year being homebodies.  Traffic congestion is back where it was.  Restaurants are open and bustling.   Schools and universities are looking to operate as close to the pre-pandemic normal as possible this fall.  People are traveling in droves this 4^th of July weekend. 

This is a bit like last year at the same time.  People were itching to get out and states began to open as the weather warmed.  Large numbers gathered due to social unrest and plain old weariness with the pandemic.  The infection rates shot up.  Here we are a year later, and more people will be mingling again especially this 4^th of July weekend.  While we are more vaccinated, the experts are a bit concerned about the more contagious Delta Variant of the COVID virus.  It is more contagious and is quickly becoming the dominant variant in new cases.  There are rumbles of again requiring masks in public gatherings to contain this variant.  A few other countries have already made this a requirement. 

I sure hope we don’t have to put too many of the restrictions we have just shed back in place.  It will certainly depress the people who are just starting to appreciate, actually reveling, this return to normalcy.  If we do have to take a step back, I hope we don’t become defiant and polarized as we experienced last summer with regard to masking and social distancing.  I am weary of this tiresome defiance of science and the conspiracy laden polarization that accompanies it. 

I am cautiously optimistic and looking for a return to the classroom, Michigan Football, and playing music for live audiences.