The 2020 Presidential Election

 

 I am sitting in front of the TV glued to the election coverage.  It is, as of 9 pm CST, not clear if Trump will be re-elected or if Biden will be the next President.    I am guessing that we may not see a network make a prediction any time before 11 pm or maybe even midnight.

It is the not the same as four years ago… and it is kind of the same.

Four years ago, Donald Trump defied all odds.  He kept winning primaries.  He kept saying and doing outrageous things that would have normally blown-up any other candidate’s run.  His supporters actually liked him more for what they took as “bold leadership” or “telling it like it is.”  Hilary Clinton was unable to capitalize on them.  The polls all showed Clinton in the lead almost the whole campaign.  The lead did diminish as the election neared.  It was fun watching the pundits on every network dumbfounded by the results as they rolled in and showed traditionally Blue States go for Trump.  There was high entertainment value in watching the jubilant confusion on Fox News and totally shocked confusion on MSNBC. 

I wrote about it:  This Crazy Election Night.  I went to bed not knowing the result and woke up to a President Elect Trump… something I never thought I would see.

Part of the reason the polls were wrong and under-counted Trump is that, first, the polls were less accurate with caller ID and cell phones.  Second, people, especially younger people, just don’t answer their phones when pollsters call because they don’t answer calls from numbers they don’t recognize.  The polls were, in my view, skewed to older folks with home phones maybe without caller ID.  There was another factor that came to me after the election:  the seems to be a large number of Trump supporters that won’t admit to others, even pollsters, who they are for.  My views are not fact based but I think they are directionally correct.

Are things any different this time? 

I thought the polls showing Biden with double digit leads were accurate.  I expected the pollsters were more careful with their methods.

Then, I read an Op-Ed article in today’s Wall Street Journal:  What Pollsters Miss About Trump by William McGurn.  The article was about a retired pollster, Matt Towery.  He believes that Trump will win again. 

Mr. Towery dismisses polls showing huge leads for Joe Biden because the state races will be tight and their models aren’t that good at “picking up the average guy on the street.” Cellphones have only made it harder to get a good representative sample, especially from young people.

“How many young people do you know who will answer a call from an unknown number on their cellphones and happily spend the next 20 minutes answering questions?” he asks.

Matt Towery seems like a smart fellow.  Maybe I say this because we both agree.  It is 11:40 pm right now and the election has not been settled.  MSNBC has Biden leading in the electoral vote 205 to 165.  On Fox News, it is Biden 237 to 213.  CNN has Biden 215 to 165.

We will not know the result soon.  It is engaging but not nearly as exciting as 2016.

More to follow, I am sure.