I am a little disappointed that I did not win the huge Mega Millions record jackpot of $1.6 Billion.
I know. I know. I know I had no chance of winning. I am a statistician and studied mathematical probability. I know that the probability of winning was 1 out of approximately 303 million. Actually, mine were 3 out of approximately 303 million since I bought 3 tickets.
So, if I knew that the chances were that infinitesimal, why was I a little disappointed.
I do not play the lottery on any regular basis. I only play it, as this week, when the jackpot is so high that it is all over the news and a topic in general conversation everywhere. I bought 3 tickets a week earlier when the jackpot was a measly $1 Billion. As no one won, the pot skyrocketed to the record level. So, I bought 3 more.
Knowledge of probability or not, the sum was so huge I could not help doing what countless others were doing… contemplating what I might do with a windfall of that much money. What would I do with that much money? What would I do for family and friends? What I first do for myself? When I asked this last question the word Maserati popped into my mind. Maybe I would buy a small fleet of Maseratis for folks I adore. I would endow a chair, for sure, at North Park University. There were lots of other ideas, some charitable and others more for myself and my family. There was, after all, a chance, small as it was, that I could win all or a share of that jackpot. It was impossible not to dream a little… and thus impossible to not be a little disappointed.
Tickets were $2 each. The jackpot was $1.6 B and there were approximately 303 million possible tickets. Why not just buy all possibilities? It would cost $606 Million and I could double the money. If the pot had to be split there was a chance I might break even or maybe even take a loss. The real problem with this scheme was even more fundamental. First, how would I get the $606 Million to buy the tickets. If I had that kind of money, I wouldn’t need to lottery winnings to begin with. Secondly, it would take forever to print out approximately 303 million tickets even if there were five entries per sheet.
Aside from the probabilities, another reason I knew I wouldn’t win was because I lived in a suburb or a major city. The winners all seem to be from some backwater place that you never hear about except for when they announce where winning lottery tickets were sold. I was joking with friends that I had no chance of winning since I didn’t live in someplace like Fenton, Arkansas, Darcy, Kentucky, or Humboldt, Oklahoma (all names I made up). Case in point, the winning ticket for this record jackpot was sold in Simpsonville, South Carolina.
At the end of the day, sure, I was a little disappointed. But, when I reflected on the kinds of things I might do with the money, I only thought about getting myself that Maserati paying off some bills, and then… I thought about charities and family. It dawned on me that I was already one fortunate person and life was indeed pretty good. So, while I was amongst the throng of folks a bit disappointed that we did not win the $1.6 Billion, I feel like I won something bigger in the long run.
That was a very nice story with a sweet ending. For me, don’t buy lottery tickets regardless of the pot size. Mainly because I am a minimalist, even if I won, I don’t know what I would do other than donate and live off the interest. As much as I think a Maserati is cool, I’m not a car guy. I would still be on my same career path, as that is what I have been doing for most of my life already. If anything, to help my family and occasionally spring for the luxury expense. Your post did remind me of the alternatives to the lottery that I had as a kid and sometimes do today, those are trading cards and gotcha games.
ReplyDeleteFor me, I bought a lot of Yu-Gi-Oh cards as a kid, it was what spark of my love of math and putting me towards accounting. In a pack of nine cards, you were guaranteed at least a rare from the set had on average eighty to a hundred cards total with rarities ranging from common to secret, (which was normally a 1/48 chance). Despite rarely ever pulling something amazing, I still asked my dad for the packs, and he lovingly bought then for me when I asked. Recently, I have had the nostalgia to buy cards to fill out some old collection. In doing so, I have had ridiculous luck in pulling cards with a secret rare worth ten times more than the pack itself. I resold them to a Gamers store and got the cards I wanted for my collection. The trading and feeling when I get a rare card I like are still good, even at this age. However, while I could as a kid, I cannot follow the card game anymore.
The second is gotcha games, which is the somewhat slang term for free games that involve a random rolling element to get certain characters or items using real money or in-game currency. For example, say you have a cast of characters from your favorite show in one of these games. To play as the character, you must unlock them by pulling them in a summoning banner. Typically, the better the character, the less likely the chance to pull him/her, with some games offering only half a percent of probability of pulling. Now every game has their hooks and tricks to the system, but most do not allow a person to just buy the character they want without the hassle. It is what leads to a lot of what are called pay-to-win players and Whales, these are individuals who spend a lot of real money to try and get these characters, but even then, it is still a random chance. Why do other people still play these games then? That feeling of getting a good pull overshadows the pain of not getting one after dozens of attempts. Some games offer a pity system for players, others are more generous with the in-game currency. For me, I am most of the time free-to-play but will kick in a few dollars if I like the game or the character I am pulling for. Sometimes I get what I want, other times I do not, but I don’t stress about the loss. In your words, I’m disappointed, but I knew the odds going in, (Sorry if a lot of the terminology I used was confusing). Anyway, I liked your post and am looking forward to reading more.