Election Night 2024

 

It is the 10 pm on the evening of Election Day and the polls are closed in the continental 48 states.  Trump has 211 electoral votes and Harris has 145.  At this moment, it looks like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia are going for Trump.  It that happens, Trump will be the next President of the United States.   CNN just reported that the folks gathered at the Trump headquarters are feeling jubilant as contrasted by a more somber tone at the Harris headquarters.

It is not fait accompli as votes are still coming in.  States and news networks seem to be more conservative in drawing conclusions.  The vote checking in the States seem more rigorous with beefed up security to be able to deliver the most reliable results they can.

Obviously if Trump wins, I imagine there will be no accusation of election fraud by either side.

It was just announced that Oregon and it’s 11 Electoral Votes have gone to Harris.  So, it is now Trump 211 and Harris at 153.

It seems “near impossible” that Harris will be able to win in Pennsylvania with 77% of the votes tallied and Trump having a 177, 232 votes ahead.  In Wisconsin, 67% of the votes are in and Trump is leading by 63,450 votes.  87% of the votes are tallied in North Carolina and Trumps margin in 138,331.  91% of the votes have been counted in Georgia and Trump has a 132, 243 vote lead.

I can see why the mood is somber at the Harris.  The talking heads on CNN are saying Harris did not have enough time for people to get to know her.

Trump just took an 86,240 vote lead in Michigan though only 37% of the vote is in.

CNN just called North Carolina for Trump and his Electoral Vote lead is 227-153 and they just showed a jubilant crowd at the Trump Headquarters.  It is very likely Trump will win both the popular vote and Electoral College votes.  It also appears the Republicans will take control of the Senate.

I am certain that Trump will win this election.  In the last twelve years, we have had Obama, Trump, Biden, and Trump again in the Oval Office.  I have not enjoyed the polar swings in policy with each of these elections.  I can see Ukraine being cut loose and Russia having its way there.  I can see us dropping out of the Paris Accords regarding Global Warming again.  I can see massive changes in immigration policy.  I can see more restrictions

I just saw an advertisement of Jon Stewart and Daily Show which starts in two minutes.  They are calling this edition of the Daily Show, “Indecision 2024:  There’s Nothing We dan do About it Now.” 

Trump now has 230 Electoral Votes to Harris’s 182.

It is time for bed.  I am turning in believing Trump will win.  If I awake to something else… well there will be a lot more to write about.

The Eve of the Election: Is it Over Yet?

I am writing this on Monday evening, November 4^th, the evening before the Presidential election which officially is tomorrow, Tuesday, November 5^th.

Unless you have been living under a rock, shipwrecked on a deserted island, or been in a coma, you know all the drama of this election process which arguably began on January 6, 2021. 

From the beginning it was clear that the 2024 election would be a rematch of the 2020 elections.  pitted former President Trump against President Biden.  In the first debate earlier on June 27th, it was clear to everyone, except President Biden, that President Biden was no longer mentally capable of doing the job.  If he stayed in the race, Trump would have been easily elected.  His advisors and party leaders got him to accept this and back out of the race.  Almost immediately, his VP, Kamala Harris, declared her candidacy for President on July 21^st and became the official Democratic candidate on August 5^th.

As unprecedented as this was, there were two assassination attempts on former President Trump.  There were actual shots followed in the first instance, July 13^th, in which a bullet grazed and bloodied Trump’s ear.

On the more precedented side that has been the norm of the 2016, 2020, and now the 2024 elections.  There has been a lot of mudslinging and both candidates saying and offering anything to garner votes.

By all predictions, the electoral college vote is too close to call, and deadlocked in the “swing states” (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada).   Each of these states are polling 49% for each candidate.  The difference in each case is less than the polling margin of error.  We just have to wait until tomorrow evening to see who our next President. 

Did I say tomorrow?

It is highly unlikely we will know the results tomorrow night.  After the counts, recounts, accusations of fraud, and the subsequent court cases after the 2020 elections that ruled there was none, the networks and the election officials are going to be very conservative.  They will only announce results when, they are sure.  I have seen reports were states and municipalities are prepared for lawsuits, protests, and even civil unrest which I believe are more likely to happen if Trump loses. 

I hope we see a more civil election and transfer of power than we did in 2020.

Many people are tired of the polarization and the ridiculously long election process.  It is exhausting and they just want to see it be over.   People are weary to the point where they want the election to be over almost more than they care who wins.

I would sure love to see a candidate I want to vote for rather than selecting the lesser of two bad choices.  Is this too much to ask for?

When I sat down to write this, I had the intention of writing a harder hitting post.  In reading it over, I am far off from that mark.  I believe it is a sign of my own weariness with the elections in this country have become.

The Old Neighborhood

 

Our Strathmoor House

There is an old saying, that begins with “You can’t go back…”  Both C. S. Lewis and Ernest Hemingway used this beginning to deliver the same message.  Lewis said, ““You can't go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.” Hemingway’s version is “You can't go back, but you can move forward.”  Both are telling us that we cannot change the past, but we have the freedom to start from where we are now and live moving forward in a manner that can change the ending presumably in some positive way.  The Lewis and Hemingway quotes are the subject for another blog.  This one is simply about the “You can’t go back.”

You can’t go back to the places you used to live and expect it to be the same especially if you haven’t been back in ten or twenty years.  You can’t go back to a place you worked and expect to see everyone you worked with.  You can’t go back to an old school and… well, you get the idea.  People change jobs.  Old neighbors move away.  Businesses close locations or refurb their offices beyond recognition.  Houses are painted different colors sometimes remodeled.  Some are even torn down and rebuilt.  Old haunts, restaurants and stores relocate, redecorate, or go out of business and replaced with another business.

This is all normal stuff.  But it is different in my old neighborhood where I grew up in Detroit.  The changes there are dramatic.  I don’t even know what to call it.  The socio-economic changes in the city are well documented and resulted in the city declaring bankruptcy in 2013.  From that time, the city has experienced a revitalization.  I was there for the recent Armenian Youth Federation Olympics and actually stayed downtown at the RenCen.  The city was alive with people, with new restaurants attracting people from the city and suburbs alike.  This was so different in such a positive way from the Detroit I left in 1990.  Back then I only went downtown when I absolutely had to like for school at Wayne State University.  It was a pleasure to see the city that I grew up in come back to life.

Cadillac Jr. High being demolshed

 

That transformation has yet to reach the neighborhood I grew up:  Zone 27 as we called it then and 48227 in Zip Code parlance.  I loved that neighborhood growing up there.  Burns Elementary School, Cadillac Junior High, and Cooley High School were all walking distance from our house first on Freeland and then two blocks over on Strathmoor.  This summer Cadillac was torn down.  Cooley has been closed since 2010 and has been vandalized.  I hope they can repurpose this architectural gem rather than tear it down as well.  I have posted on my beloved library, the Monnier Branch of the Detroit Public and I believe it has also been torn down.  The Great Lakes movie theater opened in 1927 and had like 1,800 seats.  As we lived a frugal lower middle-class lifestyle, we were not frequent patrons of the Great Lakes but it was the theater we went to.  I was sorry when it ceased to be a movie theater in the late 1960s and sadder, today, to learn it was abandoned in the 1980s and torn down in 1999.

The shopping district in our neighborhood was at the corner of Grand River and Greenfield.  There were two major department stores across Grand River from each other.  One was Montgomery Ward, a now defunct national chain, and Federal’s, a now defunct local chain.  There were other stores around the same intersection such as Saunders, Cunninghams Pharmacy, Crowley's, Winkleman's, SS Kresge's, Woolworth's, and Harry Suffrin’s menswear.  There were a few other shops on Fenkell we would also frequent.  There was a Tastee-Freeze at the corner of Strathmoor and Fenkell.  A block to the west was the Red Devil Pizzeria which we may have gone to once or twice.  We got our school supplies and prescriptions from Sam’s Drug’s a few blocks to the east.  Morris Hardware, across from Sam’s, is where we when we were doing household repairs.  Next to Morris Hardware was a humble Chinese restaurant owned by my classmate Mary Look’s parents.  We never went to that restaurant.

Our Old House now

All of that is gone.  Only Burns Elementary is still operational.  Our house on Strathmoor is abandoned and boarded up.  The homes on either side of our house are gone… torn down.  Our old house looks so small and so lonely.  While all of this is true, I have fond, warm, and full memories of the place, our little slice of Detroit.  In my mind, our house was warm, spacious, full of life. 

You cannot go back, but you can certainly remember.

An Almost Autumn Day

 

     September came and went.  I did not post a thing on this blog. 

That doesn’t mean I did not write anything.  I wrote nine articles for The Armenian Weekly as part of my coverage of the Annual Armenian Youth Federation Olympics which were held in my hometown of Detroit.  It was the 90^th edition of the athletic and social weekend that is a large part of my Armenian life.  I may yet post a few of the articles I wrote for the Weekly.

When the calendar flipped to October, I half vowed to post here every day this month.  Here it is the 3^rd of the month, and I am just posting.

It was a wonderful warm early Fall day here.  The sky was pure cloudless azure, and the air had the subtle golden glow of that I only perceive this time of year.  I had the top down and tooling about town enjoying the day, the drive, and meandering my way to Lake Michigan.  When I made it to the bluff overlooking the lake, I was taken by the setting with the sky, the lake, and leaves just starting to take photos.  I was compelled to take photos and now to share them here.

 

     I read recently, in the Chicago Tribune, that the colors this Fall might be delayed and dulled this year.  The leaves may go from green to brown without hitting the vibrant reds, oranges, and yellows that make for a glorious Fall.  The article blamed this phenomenon on global warming and a very dry September.  As Fall is my favorite season, I sure hope this doesn’t happen.  If it does, I hope it is not a trend.  Global warming has essentially transformed winter here in Chicago.  I would hate to see fall be diminished as well.

If the Fall colors dull and the temperature transition to Winter dampens, we can still experience Fall the good old corporate way.  All things pumpkin spice and Halloween have been available in stores for a month now.  With each passing year, more and more people decorate for Halloween as they do for Christmas.  I have seen more 20-foot skeletons and blow-up characters on lawns than ever.  All this is fine, I suppose, as it makes people happy.  I have one pumpkin spice latte a year and have yet to do so this year.  I am waiting for the first frost.  I guess I am just ‘old school.’

This all being said, today felt like a fall day albeit on the warm side.

Speaking of ‘old scholl,’ what do writers and poets have to say about this grand season?

“The husky, rusty russel of the tossels of the corn, And the raspin’ of the tangled leaves, as golden as the morn.” — James Whitcomb Riley, “When the Frost is on the Punkin”

“There is a harmony in autumn, and a luster in its sky, which through the summer is not heard or seen, as if it could not be, as if it had not been!” — Percy Bysshe Shelley

“Life starts all over again when it gets crisp in the fall.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald, “The Great Gatsby”

“Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.” — Albert Camus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have Fun, Learn Something

 

With the start of another school year at hand, many universities and professors are grappling with how to manage the amazing AI tools that are available to students.   AI tools are amazing.  They can generate PowerPoint slides, essays, solve math and science problems, write code, generate videos, translate passages and documents… the list seems endless. 

I don’t know about most professors, but I believe I have a sense of when AI has been copy-pasted into a writing assignment.  This is especially true, if I have gotten to know the student.  Simply, the writing does not sound at all like them or there are glaring differences in writing sophistication in different sections of the paper.

I tell the students; they should use AI.  They should use it to generate reference lists.  If the topic at hand is not totally arcane, AI is perfect for this.  They should use it to outline or draft their paper.  AI is perfect for taking a finished paper and providing a PowerPoint deck to present the paper.  It can find graphics or examples to enhance the paper or PowerPoint slides.  Lastly, I emphasize if they do any of these things, they need to provide a reference entry or citation so I know how they used AI.   I go so far as to tell students if they use AI for a first draft of the paper, they should actually copy/paste the draft as an addendum to their paper.  In that way I can see how they revised the AI draft to make the paper their own. 

This seemed like a good idea.  In a year and a half with close to 300 hundred students writing two papers each, only one student actually attached an AI draft of one paper to his final paper.  There were perhaps a quarter to a third of the students who I strongly suspected used AI for their entire paper. 

Here in lies a problem.  We emphasize one metric:  grades or points.  The students are motivated by that metric and like to get the highest grade, the most amount of points, with the least effort.  AI is most certainly an amazing ‘least-effort’ tool that can generate a high grade.  This has made grades a poor indication of learning and subject matter mastery.

I have begun asking students ”why are you here?” Why are you are in college?  What are your objectives?  Do you really want to learn?  Gain knowledge?  Learn to communicate effectively?  Be able to think critically?  Master some skill?  “Or do they just want a degree with a high GPA where learning is ancillary benefit if it happens at all?”

This kind of questioning is to get students to understand that one of the main purposes of college is for them to shift from doing things because of extrinsic motivation to intrinsic motivation.  Extrinsic motivation is that provided by teachers and parents to ensure that students do their homework and study for exams.  Extrinsic motivation is critical in K-12 and, of course, dependent on the intrinsic motivation of parents and teachers.  Intrinsic motivation comes from the individuals own drive to get something done or achieve some goal.  Of course, the quality and voracity of both kinds of motivation varies person to person.

In many of my assignments, I add this to the last line of the assignment online: “Have fun, learn something.”  If the objective is to learn something, the grade will follow.

This may be my objective this academic year, to emphasize learning and intrinsic motivation to truly maximize the return on the students’ tuition investment.  If I can do, I might truly be a teacher.

The Merton Prayer

 

The other day, I was feeling a bit out of sorts, floundering a little, basically somewhat empty.  It was far from an existential crisis or a depression requiring any sort of intervention.  It was more the ebb and flow of emotions, motivation, self-esteem, and a wee bit of ‘what’s it all about’ angst.  Needless to say, I was also feeling a tad lethargic.

I was scrolling around in Facebook which, admittedly, might not have been the wisest thing to be doing.  Social media is generally thought to create more angst than it dissipates.   Well, in this case it helped.  A friend, Shant, posted The Merton Prayer without any explanation or commentary.  I read and  immediately felt much better, more centered, and purposeful.

My Lord God,
I have no idea where I am going.
I do not see the road ahead of me.
I cannot know for certain where it will end.
nor do I really know myself,
and the fact that I think I am following your will
does not mean that I am actually doing so.
But I believe that the desire to please you
does in fact please you.
And I hope I have that desire in all that I am doing.
I hope that I will never do anything apart from that desire.

And I know that if I do this you will lead me by the right road,

though I may know nothing about it.
Therefore will I trust you always though
I may seem to be lost and in the shadow of death.

I will not fear, for you are ever with me,
and you will never leave me to face my perils alone.

Thomas Merton (1915-1968) was an American Trappist monk, writer, theologian, and mystic. Born in France and educated in the United States, Merton entered the Abbey of Gethsemani in Kentucky in 1941, where he lived most of his life. He is best known for his autobiography The Seven Storey Mountain (1948), which became a spiritual classic and brought him international fame. Merton wrote extensively on spirituality, social justice, and interfaith dialogue, particularly between Christianity and Eastern religions. His writings continue to inspire those interested in contemplative life and social activism.  He was very popular with several philosophy majors in my circle of friends when I was an undergraduate.  They all, went, to the premier Jesuit High School in Detroit.

I never did get around reading anything by Merton even though I recall they suggested Thoughts in Solitude.  Had I taken their advice and read that book back then, I would have been aware of The Merton Prayer fifty years ago.  I am almost certain The Merton Prayer would not have had nearly the same impact back then as my reading it a few days ago.

    The Merton Prayer is a deeply reflective and honest expression of spiritual humility and trust in God. The prayer acknowledges the uncertainty and confusion often felt in the journey of faith, where one may not always know if they are following the right path or any path at all for that matter. Despite this uncertainty, Merton expresses a profound trust in God's guidance, believing that the desire to please God is itself a sign of being on the right path. The prayer's value lies in its affirmation that sincere intention and trust in God are what ultimately guide a person's spiritual journey, even when the way forward seems unclear. It resonates with many for its honesty and its emphasis on faith amid doubt.  It allows for communities of faith but also personalizes one’s journey and relationship with God.

To me, religion and faith was always a bridge from we empirically know in this world, actually it is more like what we think we know, and what happens to us after we die.  Faith is the only solace to that question that no living person knows the answer to.  The nature and axioms of one's faith also guidance in how to live our lives.

This is a very comforting prayer.  Thank you Shant.

Death of an Enemy

We are all aware that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demanded that Armenians cease using the image of Ararat and the word “enemy” in our national anthem. As humiliating as this is and as idiotic as it sounds, it is but a lesser offense in the history of subjugation and atrocities by the Turks against our people. While Erdogan would, no doubt, rather see the word “master” or “conqueror” (actually he would prefer we not have a national anthem at all), the word “enemy” fits best from our perspective. Erdogan is just another in a long line of Turks who are enemies of the Armenian people.

There was another enemy of the Armenians. His name was Kiazim Karabekir. In the February 26, 1948 issue of the Hairenik Weekly there was a front page article titled, “His Death Came Not Too Soon’: TURK KARABEKIR DIES OF A HEART CONDITION.” The article was written by “a Staff Writer of the Hairenik Weekly.”

Who was Kiazim Karabekir? 

At the time of his death he was president of the Turkish National Assembly. He was a pasha, a general, a military man from a military family. Born in 1882, Karabekir was the son of a general, Mehmet Emin Pasha. He fought in Gallipoli against the French and in Iraq against the British. In 1916, he was appointed to the command of the II Corps stationed in Diyarbakır and the acting commander of the Second Army. In 1918, he captured Erzerum and Erzincan from the Armenians and Russians. He also fought in Azerbaijan against the British, and that same year he was made a general.

As a general, he pledged his loyalty to Mustafa Kemal, who made him chief of staff. In 1919, he was made commander of the Turkish Third Army section. Though he didn’t always agree with Kemal, Karabekir served the Republic of Turkey throughout the remainder of his life.

Karabekir led an attack against the fledgling Armenian Republic in 1920. Per the Weekly article:

The Turk attack started on September 20, 1920. Karabekir first struck Olti and Bardiz; his forces then fanned out all over the Kars-Ardahan sector against the valiant opposition of a vastly outnumbered Armenian army. The Turks drove on to Alexandropol, where Karabekir ordered the wholesale murder of more than 15,000 Armenians. For this he has been hailed by his Turkish eulogists as ‘the guardian of the Caucasus.’

Alexandropol (soon to be Leninakan and now Gyumri) was the largest city in Armenia at the time. Karabekir met with an Armenian delegation there to negotiate a treaty. Negotiation was hardly the word, though, as Karabekir had the upper hand. The Armenian delegation, led by Alexander Khatisian, had no leverage. As a result, the Treaty of Alexandropol, signed on the eve of the Soviet takeover of the Armenian Republic, was not favorable at all to the Armenians.  Kars and Ardahan went back to Turkey. 

Karabekir did not want to stop there.  As Vahakn Dadrian wrote in his 2003 book The History of the Armenian Genocide: Ethnic Conflict from the Balkans to Anatolia to the Caucasus:

In his massive two volume book ‘Our War for Independence,’ Karabekir reiterates again and again the theme that Armenia is both a threat and obstacle for Turkey’s paramount need to establish contiguous frontiers with Azerbaijan and other Turkic countries in the Caucasus… He berates Halil Kut, the commander of the Army Groups East at the time, for hindering his plan to capture Zankezour at the end of World War I and to establish a link with Azerbaijan.

In Volume II of his book, Karabekir wrote:

The aim of all Turks is to unite with the Turkic borders. History is affording us today the last opportunity. In order for the Muslim world not to be forever fragmented it is necessary that the campaign against Karabagh be not allowed to abate. As a matter of fact, drive the point home in Azeri circles that the campaign should be pursued with greater determination and severity.

In the Weekly article from 1948 on Karabekir’s passing, the Staff Writer wrote:

Newspapers of the nation, in reporting the demise of this violent man, failed to establish fully his place in history.  But had the gentlemen of the press done any honest research into the life of this man, they would have been constrained to observe that his death came not to soon, and that his heart attack probably followed upon the growing poison fed into his body by an irritated conscience… that is if we may imagine that Turks have consciences.

The Staff Writer (James Mandalian? James Tashjian?) was pretty gentle on “this violent man.”  There is no other word to describe Karabekir. He was an enemy of the Armenian people. Erdogan and Aliyev are his political heirs, working to fulfill the goal Karabekir shared with Enver Pasha. These are the people we faced then and did not take seriously enough after the end of the first Artsakh war in 1994. These are the people we are “negotiating” with today. When it comes to the Armenians, I cannot imagine either of them having a conscience.

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First published in The Armenian Weekly, July 30, 2024