Britannia Rules the Waves?

 

historic-uk.com

Per usual, I was listening to NPR on my way into North Park University.  There was a report of the missile and drone attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.  The Houthi rebels in Yemen are responsible and doing it to show support for the Palestinians in the ongoing onslaught by Israel.  The attacks began on January 12.  There have been 57 attacks on ships since then.  The damage has been limited.  A recent attack on a cargo ship carrying fertilizer caused a large oil spill that in 18 miles long is by far the worst.  The ship is taking water and there are environmental concerns from the oil and even more if the fertilizer spills into the sea.

The part of the report that really caught my attention was when they talked about who in the West was defending the shipping against the attacks.  As expected, they noted that the US is taking the lead.  They talked about other countries and their inability to provide much assistance because their fleets are downsized to a minimum and lacking sailors.  One country they called out was the UK saying that their fleet size was smaller than during the Revolution of the American Colonies. 

What?

This is the UK.  Britain.  England.  The Royal Navy was the backbone of the military that built and sustained an empire that the sun never set on.  A famous song popped into my head.  This song was featured in every swashbuckling, seafaring, war movie ever made where the Royal Navy saved the day:  Rule Britannia!  This patriotic song with a grand melody extolling that “Britannia rules the waves.”  (For some reason, I thought it was always “Hail Britannia, Britannia rules the waves.”)  I was a bit disappointed that Britannia no longer ruled the waves.

Per the graphic above and worldpopulationreview.com, the UK does indeed have less ships than they did during American Revolution.  In 1800, there were 285 warships in the Royal Navy.  Today they have 117.  It is totally unfair to compare the sailing warships of 1800 that used muzzle loading cannons to the higher tech ships of today that includes aircraft carriers, submarine, and surface warships that are armed with missiles, torpedoes, and conventional guns. But it is a fact that the Royal Navy has less ships today than they had in 1800.

Where does the Royal Navy stand today relative to other counties.  If number of warships is  the only measure, the Royal Navy is not in the top ten.  They Royal Navy is tied with Bangladesh for 30^th place.  Countries like landlocked Bolivia have more warships than the Royal Navy.  Using the same measure, number of warships here is the top ten Navies in the world:

 

worldpopulationreview. com

The US is ranked 4^th behind Russia, China, and North Korea.  Sri Lanka is ranked 10^th.  Maybe number of warships is not the best measure of naval power.  Clearly, the 117 Royal Navy warships of today would wipe the 285 warships of Royal Navy of 1800.  As for Sri Lanka, they have zero aircraft carriers, destroyers, or submarines and 5 frigates among their 270 warships.  The Royal Navy has 2 aircraft carriers, 6 destroyers, 11 frigates, and 10 submarines.  I would imagine 1 UK carrier group would make quick work of the entire Sri Lankan Navy.

The worldpopulationreview.com, which is the source for all current day numbers, prefers another measure to rank navies:  total tonnage.   By this measure, the US is #1 followed Russia, China, Japan, and the UK.  The measure of total tonnage gives more emphasis to the larger ships and often more sophisticated ships.  The bulk of the Sri Lankan navy are smaller coastal gunboats.  Here is their forecast of the top five navies in 2030.

1. United States - The U.S. is expected to remain the dominant global naval power in 2030, thanks to an unmatched combination of sheer tonnage and technological advancement. The U.S. Navy doesn't just have many ships, it has many massive, cutting-edge ships.
2. United Kingdom - While the U.K.'s total number of ships is expected to decline, the addition of two new aircraft carriers and the progressive updating of its submarine fleet should establish the U.K. as the #2 maritime power.
3. China - The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) fleet is older, but larger in number (if not tonnage) fleet than the U.S. Navy fleet, and the PLAN has ambitious plans to keep adding more and more vessels.
4. India - Another Asian country expanding its naval presence, India should have three operating aircraft carriers by 2030, collectively capable of deploying 110-120 aircraft.
5. Russia - This superpower's aging fleet is likely to suffer some budget constraints as older equipment is decommissioned, but Russia is still expected to have eight ballistic missile submarines (with 20 missiles each) patrolling the seas in 2030.

So, while Britannia no longer rules the waves, their small number of ships can still pack a wallop. 

 

 

 

The Changing Landscape of College Football

Boxscore

 

Beyond the changes at Michigan and the Big Ten, the winds of change are have changed big time college football. From the introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policies to the buzz around the transfer portal, the continued league consolidation, and the expansion of the playoff format to 12 teams which begins with the 2024 season, it's clear that the game many of us love had undergone a metamorphosis. But as with any transformation, there are plusses, minuses, and any number armchair experts swirling around these shifts. Here are my thoughts on this.

 

Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL):  College football has always been a money maker for the schools, coaches, and the networks.  Let’s face it:  it is a business.  The athletes are finally getting their slice of the pie, thanks to NIL. It's a game-changer, no doubt. Athletes can now cash in on their personal brand, turning their hard-earned popularity into tangible opportunities. From endorsement deals to social media partnerships, the possibilities are endless. And let's not forget the ripple effect: this could usher in a new era of college sports, with heightened visibility and, dare I say, profitability.  Players can make millions in college and there will be some incentive for players not quite NFL ready to spend another year in college. 

There is also a dark side to this shiny coin. Can teams with big pockets lure players from other teams to transfer to their school?  Will there be some need for regulations to keep this from getting out of hand?  Maybe a salary cap is needed because NIL is shaping up to be a salary.  Some players with big NIL pay days, like premier running backs, have shared their NIL pay with their linemen.

Transfer Portal:  Ah, the transfer portal – college football’s version of free agency? It depends on who you ask. On one hand, it's a lifeline for athletes seeking greener pastures. A chance to hit the reset button, to find a new home where their talents will be appreciated, and they can get a starting position or simply more playing time. It's a game of musical chairs, with athletes shuffling from one program to the next in pursuit of their dreams:  college glory and the NFL. Let’s face it, college players can play for a team four or five years max.  The portal already has many players only wearing a uniform for one or two years.  Some players have transferred more than once. For teams with coaching changes, players will hit the portal if they don’t think they won’t fit into the philosophy of the incoming coaching staff.  The transfer portal has the potential to shake the very foundations of college programs, leaving coaches scrambling to piece together a cohesive squad. Ohio State forced their 2023 quarterback, Kyle McCord, into the portal.  They used the portal then to bring other, they believe better, quarterback talent to Columbus. 

League Consolidation:  League consolidation has been led by the SEC and the Big 10.  The college football landscape is at a crossroads. On the surface, it seems like a no-brainer – fewer conferences, more competition.  If we scratch beneath the surface, there are issues. For starters, what happens to the smaller teams? So far, teams have only added teams to conferences.  Is ejecting or demoting teams as they do in Premier League soccer by in the future?   Let's not overlook the logistical nightmare of reshuffling conferences and rivalries. Traditionalists are up in arms, fearing the loss of cherished matchups and traditions. Consolidation is more likely being pushed by the broadcasting networks.  Fans will grumble at first but get used to it within a year or two. 

Again looking at the Big Ten, what are Pac 10 teams doing in our conference. This is being asked by Big 10 and Pac 10 fans I know.  My football guru buddy, Jack, speculates there may be a Super League of 30 teams soon independent of the NCAA.  If we use the term Premier League, the UK soccer model would apply nicely.

12-Team Playoff:  Last but not least, let's talk playoffs. The expansion to 12 teams has everyone buzzing – and for good reason. More teams, more drama, more excitement – what's not to love? It's the ultimate underdog story, with Cinderella teams vying for a shot at glory. But hold onto your hats, folks. With great power comes great responsibility, and an expanded playoff format is no exception. Will it dilute the significance of the regular season? Will it lead to lopsided matchups and blowouts? And let's not forget about the toll it will take on the players – both physically and academically. The road to the national championship may be paved with gold, but it's also fraught with peril.

In the ever-changing world of college football, one thing is clear: change is inevitable. But as we navigate these uncharted waters, let's not lose sight of what makes this game great – the passion, the tradition, the camaraderie. Yes, the tides may be shifting, but the heart and soul of college football will always remain the same. So, let's embrace the changes, but let's do so with caution and care. After all, the future of college football depends on it.

Michigan Football After Winning it All

 

Harbaugh and Moore

My last post about MichiganFootball was a celebration of the  National Championship.  It was an amazing run from a solid team.  The key players and coach of this team are already in the Wolverine Pantheon.  The fan base was ecstatic, and it was something quite special given the tough times of the Rich Rodriquez and Brady Hoke coaching eras.

We celebrated and basked in the glow of the National Championship for about a week.  It became evident by the end of that week that Jim Harbaugh was going to return to the NFL.  He did just that.  With Harbaugh’s departure, the best players who still had eligibility, e.g. quarterback J.J. McCarthy, opted for the NFL draft.  Large segments of the fan base went and, allow me to use a technical term here, nuts.  They blamed the Michigan AD for not signing Harbaugh to a new contract and called for his job.  Many dissed Harbaugh for not being a true ‘Michigan man’ and abandoning the program.

First, many of the fans are all emotion.  We live and die with their team.  Losses can be really tough to take.  When it comes to a rivalry game like Michigan-Ohio State, a loss is agonizing with a depression that lasts for months.  String a few losses together?  Then you have fanbase apoplexy.  We experienced that earlier this century, Ohio State fans are experiencing it right now.

There are certainly emotional components for coaches and players as well.  Team spirit, alignment, and cohesiveness is necessary for a football team to commit to a system to prepare well and play at a high level.  Emotion is component but only a component. For players and coaches on elite teams, college football is their job and potentially their career and livelihoods.  There is money involved and lots of it, more so with NIL for the players.  Who can blame any coach or any player acting in their own self-interest, when millions of dollars are involved?

Harbaugh brought a National Championship to Michigan, his alma mater.  I wished he had stayed and created a dynasty.  I cannot disparage him for making a move that allows him to pursue becoming a Super Bowl Championship coach at a significantly higher salary.   I love where I teach, but for an opportunity to make anywhere north of 20% more… I am gone. 

Michigan took a few days and named their offensive coordinator, Sherrone Moore, as their new head coach.  Moore was a popular and obvious choice to the fan base as was the head coach of four games this season while Harbaugh was out due to the alleged cheating scandal.  While I am happy with the selection of Moore, only time will tell how well he does.  He has said the right things about continuing to be a hard-hitting tough football team that wants to continue a winning tradition… especially over the big rivals.

In the next few weeks after his departure, as is common in football, Harbaugh took several key assistants to San Diego including the defensive coordinator and the strength coach.  Running backs coach, Mike Hart, left presumably because he didn’t the top job.  A few more players hit the portal and a key recruit backed out of his commitment.  Moore had to work hard fill his coaching staff and solidify the roster.   

While all of this was happening with Michigan, Ohio State spent like crazy securing transfer quarterbacks and other players.  They also opened up the purse strings and hired UCLA head coach, Chip Kelly, to be their offensive coordinator.  Ryan Day is fighting for his job and doesn’t want to lose to Michigan for a fourth year in a row.  Beyond even that, they want to win a National Championship and re-establish their dynasty (which of select number of teams doesn’t want the same).  The rivalry has certainly revved up.

The 2024 season will feature two major changes for Michigan and the Big Ten.  It will be the first season for UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon in the Big Ten which now numbers 18 team.  New conference members USC, Oregon, and Washington are on Michigan’s schedule along with Texas and, of course, the big rivalries of Michigan State and Ohio State.  Michigan will have one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Will we go undefeated and win a back-to-back National Championship?  That would be an unbelievable feat given the changes in personnel in the program.  In February, six months before the season starts and trying to digest all of these changes, I have more hopes for next season than anything definitive.  Given our schedule one to three losses is not out of the question.  My guess is that if we are undefeated or have one loss, we should get in the playoffs which are now expanded to 12 teams.  Two or more losses, probably not.

Bravo to winning the Natty last year.  Best wishes to the coaches and players that moved on.  Wishing Coach Moore and the team success moving forward.  Go Blue!

Putin's War - Two Years Old

 

Two years ago today, February 24, 2024, Russia invaded Ukraine.  The world thought the Russian Army would quickly conquer and annex Ukraine.  What unfolded was something else.  It became apparent that this Russian Army was not the feared Red Army of the USSR.  While they outmanned and outgunned Ukraine, they lacked the tactical leadership, training, and, more importantly, the commitment of the rank and file to achieve their goals. 

The common frontline soldier did not want to invade Ukraine.  There was no threat.  Life in Russia was not horrible.  Basically, they were doing the bidding of their duly elected dictator:  Vladimir Putin.  They saw no reason to put their lives on the line.  As a result, their hearts were not into it.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians were defending their land.  The did not want to be part of Putin’s Russia.  Because of that motivation, they fought valiantly and slowed down the invasion further exposing the Russian Army’s morale and leadership issues.

With the invasion, the Europeans were worried.  If Putin successfully took Ukraine, might Putin next set his sights on Poland or Finland?  Was Putin’s aim to bring the former SSRs back into the fold?  That was the fear.  As the Europeans were concerned, so was the United States.  In short order, military supplies from ammunition and artillery to more sophisticated armaments were provided to Ukraine.  Putin stated that he was intent on taking Ukraine and said he would use any means possible to achieve that goal if there was outside interference from NATO.   Many thought he might use nuclear weapons.  Led by the US, military was provided to Ukraine.  Thankfully, there were no more veiled threats about using nukes.

With the military aid, the invasion soon stalled, and slowly the Ukrainian pushed the Russians back some.  A front line was established and it became a war of attrition.  Last year, it looked as if the mercenary Wagner Group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin might take a larger roll in the war to break the stalemate.  Prigozhin looked tougher and more capable than Putin, and even challenged Putin’s leadership.  Putin did what Putin does so well when someone challenges his leadership.  The threat is neutralized and Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash… on his way to Moscow to make amends with Putin.

Fast forward to today.  Another war, Israel’s invasion of Gaza is consuming more of the news than the Ukraine’s war with Russia.  Thus far $75 billion has been given by the US to Ukraine.   It is also a presidential election year in the US.  Biden wants to provide more aid to Ukraine. The Democrats are most certainly with him.  The Republicans most certainly are not.  Congress is having a hard time approving a bill.  As a result, the Ukrainians are running low on ammunition.  The Russians have made their first meaningful advancement in months.  Without more aid from the US, the Russians will gain the upper hand.

This kind of politics speaks to the rumors of the equally odd relationships of Biden family alliance with Zelensky of Ukraine and Trump with Putin.  Depending on one’s political leanings, one of those odd relationships will be true and virtuous and the other an unholy alliance.

The US and Europe has tried to cripple Russia’s war machine with economic sanctions. They have not worked.  Economics makes seeming strange bedfellows.  Russian oil and gas have made their way to the world markets perhaps even to Europe who would have suffered most from sanctions on Russia if they had worked.

So, in the ‘War What is it Good For’ department, what is the cost of this Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond what the US, Europeans, and Russians have spent?  The human cost per The Independent:

• 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced by the war.
• 30,457 Civilian Casualties that include 10,582 deaths 587 of which were children.
• A high-end estimate of military casualties on both sides in 500,000.  This included 110,000 killed.

And what is the good or purpose of all this chaos and carnage? 

Apart from whoever wins this war, there are always entities that profit from war and that is certainly the case here. There are leaders, addicted to the heroin of power and might over others that need a war like this.  But, for me and I guessing for all the families that experienced displacement, causalities and deaths in this war, the words of the song written by Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong resonate strongly:

 

War, what is it good for?

Absolutely nothin’!

Chidem Inch: The mountain once known as…

 

In the Soviet era, Armenia, like other SSRs, had its own coat of arms. The Armenian Coat of Arms had an image of Ararat wreathed in two stalks of wheat with a red star and hammer and sickle above the two peaks. In the 1950s, Turkey complained to the USSR about using ‘its’ mountain on the Armenian SSR Coat of Arms. It was concerned that the USSR might have designs on taking Turkish territory. Per his memoirs, Nikita Khrushchev retorted, “Why do you have a moon depicted on your flag? After all, the moon doesn’t belong to Turkey, not even half the moon. Do you want to take over the whole universe?” I distinctly recall reading, years ago, that Armenian Communist Anastas Mikoyan had a similar exchange with a senior Turkish official, who asked, “Who gave you permission to use our mountain on your Coat of Arms?” Mikoyan supposedly answered, “Who gave you permission to use the moon on yours?” (I say supposedly because I have been unable to verify Mikoyan’s version.)

The Turks have raised the issue of Ararat on official Armenian symbols again this year. They object to the use of Ararat on the current Armenian Coat of Arms and the word ‘enemy’ in the Armenian National Anthem. How they figured out that they themselves are the enemy is beyond me. By chance, as I write this I am wearing an Ara the Rat hoodie with a picture of the two peaks and the words, “Out of bounds, but never out of sight.” This is our circumstance, our vidjag, that the symbol of our nation, the mountain of our hearts and souls, revered in song, poetry and art, lies not in our country but in our enemy’s country.  

Imagine if, because of war and arbitrary borders, Mount Fuji was no longer in Japan. It is unfathomable for any educated person with a basic knowledge of geography and history. Well, with regard to Ararat, the unfathomable is a reality Armenians can see every day. 

At many Armenian cultural events we attend or in articles we read, we see or hear the line, “We are unmovable, like our mountains.” I understand the sentiment and its inspirational intent. But, as it often can be, the truth is much harsher. Our borders can and have been moved; our people can and indeed have been moved from our unmovable mountains.

Who moved the borders? Who eliminated our people from our unmovable mountains? 

This was done in 1915 in Western Armenia and again just a few months ago in Artsakh. Might we call these people, oh, I don’t know, enemies? Turkey has an issue with the word enemy in the third verse of our national anthem. Again, for some reason, they believe it may refer to themselves. Sounds like paranoia to me. They ask for this change while simultaneously supplying their latest drones to surrogate Azerbaijan, who keeps threatening to take what it calls ‘Western Azerbaijan.’ This sure sounds like an enemy to me. I would want more than a tricolor to shine against such an enemy – maybe some seriously high-tech weapons of my own. Perhaps we can call it ‘the iron ladle’ drone.

We would not feel any safer by acquiescing to these requests to change our National Anthem or eliminate Ararat from our Coat of Arms. It rings more of subjugation than negotiations for border delineation and security. Yet, the government of the Republic of Armenia is considering these changes. But negotiations tend to go the way of the 800-pound gorilla in the relationship, and clearly, the Republic of Armenia is not the 800-pound gorilla.

Maybe we can borrow from Prince’s playbook and no longer refer to Ararat or Masis but instead ‘the mountain formerly known as…’ We don’t even have to use the words Ararat or Masis. We could conjure up an abstract symbol, again a la Prince, to replace the names Ararat and Masis. I might recommend, and I am just spit-balling here, the Greek letter beta:  β. They might not get that it is just a stylized graphic of Ararat rotated clockwise 90 degrees.

Per the Khrushchev-Mikoyan story, this is nothing new for Turkey. Here is another example. About a dozen years ago, I organized a concert with a singer born and raised in Istanbul. One of the songs we planned for her to sing was ‘Khnjouki Yerk,’ based on the endearing poem by Armenian poet Sarmen. The first two lines of the poem are:

Seghann eh arad,
Timatsn Ararat…

The abundant table
Set under Ararat…

She had learned a version of the song without a reference to Ararat. Even though she attended an Armenian school, they had to comply with state regulations and censorship in this regard. It would be beyond horrible for schools in the Republic of Armenia to ever have to follow the same rules as Armenian schools in Istanbul.

If this were to happen and, sadly, such concessions have been considered, I would surely be in favor of changing Armenia’s National Anthem. But I would also change the first line from:

Mer hayrenik, azad angakh…
Our fatherland, free, independent…

Back to Mikayel Nalbandian’s first line:

Mer hayrenik, tshvar, ander…
Our fatherland, miserable, barren…

 

===

Origninally published in The Armenian Weekly 

Avocation vs Profession

 

This month ends the 20^th year of This Side of Fifty.

This writing and the music I perform are two great avocations, two great joys, two hobbies.  I would have loved to have done either or both professionally.  While, that dream, that desire, is not dead, I must admit that the probability of it happening is diminished and ebbing with each passing day primarily because of my age.  I will continue to do both because of my devotion to them and the enjoyment I get from them.

This blog gets views.  The musical piece I record and post on Facebook also gets views. 

In terms of music there are videos I have made of myself on Facebook and several that were recorded by Ara Topouzian when I played in his group at an AYF picnic.  I have one video from 2014 in which I play God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen and Joy to the World.  It has 9,900+ views.  It is popular because of the Christmas Carols but also because I post it every year since them.  The second most popular is something I called A Bit of Nihaventing from October 16, 2021.  It has over 3,800 views.  I have a few more with views in the 2,000-3,000 view range.  They include:

 

Darikes

Koon Yeghir Palas

Ipek Siyah Mantolu

Seninle ey gül-i ahsen

Armenian Dance Song - Ara Topouzian Ensemble

 

These are all decent numbers nothing close to what anyone ever might call viral.

From this blog, I have three posts with 2,000 or more views.

 

Never Give Up!  9.57K views This blew up during the pandemic

The Detroit Lions 5.26K views Most of these numbers are from when I first posted it.

Killings in Christchurch 2.36K views This post also racked-up most of these views in the first few days of posting it.

There are 11 more posts with between 1,000 and 2,000 views.  The remaining 825 posts have less than 999 views with, and I am guessing, 700 of them in the 1-200 range. 

As mentioned, the writing and music are avocations or hobbies.  They are fulfilling, enjoyable, and fun.

Over the past 10 years, as a full-time member of the North Park University faculty, I have been recording lectures for online courses and problem-solving tips for both online and face-to-face classes on my professional YouTube channel.  The purpose of this was to provide a resource for students to watch on their own time.  They could watch all or parts of an entire lecture or just watch a short video on how to solve a specific style of problem.  When the pandemic hit in 2020 and we went totally online, I recorded all my lectures.  For all practical purposes, I rarely visited this YouTube channel except to be sure a video I just uploaded was functional. 

Recently, a student came up to me class and said, “Professor, you’re really popular on YouTube.”  I replied, “I don’t think so,” thinking that YouTube was only for music.  The student, “Your lectures get a lot of views.”  I was surprised.  I had never really checked.  When I did, I found out that I had 4,320+ followers and 240 videos.  While by blog has 840 posts, there are only 51 followers.  I have videos with with 150K, 100K, 70K, 33K, 30K, 16K, and 11K views.  There are 42 will view in the 1,000 to 9,999 views.  I had no idea.

After a bit of thought, it makes total sense that my professorial post has more followers and are viewed more often.  That is my “day job.”  It was I get paid to do.  Being a professor is the last part of my 48-year career.  I have lots of experience in both industry and teaching.  While the production content of these videos is nothing special, they are actually amateurish, the content is useful.  I guess I have a knack for explaining things per the comments. 

Here is an example:  Forecasting and Demand Planning: Example.  You get the best of what I do content wise as well as the amateurish production and delivery that includes talking to myself, awkward moments of silence, and way too much fumbling around in Excel.  As I tell my students, they should watch it the first time for the content.  After that, if they can’t sleep, they should watch it again, and they’ll be out like a light.  I truly believe I could market these videos as sleep aids. 

Will I stop posting my writing or music?  No.  They are my hobbies.  Will I pay more attention to my professorial posts and try to improve on presentation and production quality?  For sure.