Monday, January 15, 2018

Government Effectiveness

     Ah the title, Government Effectivenss. It is always good to title a piece with an oxymoron. As Will Rogers said, “I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts."
     Well here is a fact. Over the weekend a “thing” happened in Hawaii. If it had not been all over the news, I never in a million years would have guessed what the “thing” was.
     What happened was that on January 13th a text was sent to every cell phone in the state saying there was an inbound missile threat directing everyone to seek immediate shelter. Needless to say, many people panicked. There were reports of people putting their kids in the tub and lying on top of them. Others climbed down manholes either alone or with their families for protection. This was all taken pretty seriously given the tensions with North Korea over their missile tests. It took the state Emergency Management Agency just over 30 minutes to send out a second text saying it was a false alarm.
     The Governor apologized for the error attributing to “an emergency worker hitting the wrong template during a routine drill” CNN.  
CNN also provided "The texts loved ones sent during the Hawaii missile alert mishap."  These give a sense of the kind of disbelief and panic that people experienced. 
    Oh my… there is a basic adage in quality management that a human error that can be easily made will be made. To know that such things are possible, however, requires an analysis to determine the likelihood of errors happening and the impact if the do. This is called a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The team would then have to develop fixes for the failure modes that have a high likelihood of occurring and huge effect. I am guessing sending out an alarm that Hawaii is under a missile attack when it indeed wasn’t, would have qualified for such a fix.
     It seems very odd and definitely wrong, that something like this could happen so easily. I suppose that is why they do routine drills to catch errors such as this.
     This incident in Hawaii reminds me of my biggest and maybe longest standing pet peeve: The No-Call List. To me, it has been a dismal failure. My usual rant on this subject

is that how can we solve any of the serious problems facing this country such North Korea Nukes, our decaying infrastructure, education, inequality, health care, hacking, and poverty to name a few if we cannot make the No Call List system work. All of these other problems seem bigger and more complicated. Put my tax dollars to good use and make the No Call List live up to its name and promise.
     The Washington Post had an article in their January 10 Magazine: 'How robo-callers outwitted the government and completely wrecked the Do Not Call list'. The No Call List began in 2003. Something like 50 million people signed up for it almost immediately. I was one of those. Today, there are 230 million numbers on the No Call List today. The governing authority over the No Call List , the Federal Trade Commission, gets 19,000 complaints a day! Just today, as an example, I got two unknown calls on my cell and six on my home phone.
    The Washington Post article helped me understand the history and challenges in what I have been assuming to be an easy thing to get done. It seems the No Call List was created in the era of telemarketing i.e. humans calling from call centers. Apparently, it worked for awhile. I suppose I am just not remembering that era at all. Then, two things happened that have circumvented the system: more sophisticated robocalling software and internet based calling (VOIP). VOIP allows for very low cost calling from anywhere in the world. Basically, all one needs is a good laptop, some good software which I am guessing is readily available, and one is in business. The software these days can give the appearance of the incoming call coming from one’s own area code which fools both the person being called but apparently also the Feds. There were 1 billion robocalls in 2015. In 2017, that number jumped to 2.5 billion.
     For the most part, Robocalls are illegal in this country. It seems the callers are way ahead of the FTC on this and they are close to impossible to catch and prosecute. The Washington Post article introduced a fellow, Michael Aaron Jones. The FTC called in this very well off owner of robocalling businesses to testify on his business and the industry in general. Apparently, he was very forthcoming. After his testamony, “he returned to California and resumed robo-calling. In January 2017, the FTC sued him. Five months later, a federal judge banned him from telemarketing and hit him with a $2.7 million penalty. He didn’t bother contesting the judgment.” Clearly, the fine was a cost of doing business in his very lucrative enterprise.
     MarketWatch reports similar numbers in an article, ‘2017 was the worst year yet for robocalls’:

There was five more times the number of robocalls in 2017 than there was in 2009, a report from the Federal Trade Comission said. The commission received a total of 4.5 million robocall complaints in 2017, up from 3.4 million in 2016. In addition, the FTC received 2.5 million complaints about telemarketing calls, up from 1.8 million live calls. 
Phone scams result in more than $350 million in financial losses annually, according to Consumers Union. Spam calls vary in purpose, according to a study released in July from caller ID and spam blocking service Truecaller, with 43% of them general nuisance, 29% scams, 19% financial service, and 7% debt collectors.
     Most everyone I know simply do not answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number. Obviously, enough answer to wrack up $350 million in losses per year.
     The FTC has challenged the best tech companies in the country to develop counter measures. We are talking about companies like Apple and Google.
     In my simple view of things, making the No Call List work is the first line of government effectiveness. I hope with the new tax cuts, funding for my pet peeve project don’t get slashed.

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